Björn Borg Q4’25 preview: Steady volley on the bottom line despite a slower pace

Source: Inderes & Pinpoint (retail consensus 05.02.26, 64 estimates)

Björn Borg will publish its Q4’25 results on Friday, February 13, 2026. We expect the company to report modest top-line growth as it faces tough comparison figures in its largest market, Sweden, alongside a volatile retail environment. While we expect the sports apparel category to remain a growth engine, the overall reported revenue growth will likely be dampened by a strengthening SEK. We anticipate profitability to remain at a solid level, supported by good cost control and favorable currency effects on gross margins.

We expect modest revenue growth against tough comparisons in Sweden

We forecast Björn Borg’s Q4 revenue to reach 238 MSEK, representing a reported growth of 1.6% y/y, below Retail Consensus (Pinpoint estimates). In local currencies, we estimate growth at 3.0%, with the difference explained by negative FX impacts from a strengthening SEK. By segment, we expect Own e-commerce to show the strongest growth (10% y/y), primarily driven by strong performance in Sports Apparel. We expect revenue in the largest segment, Wholesale, to grow modestly at around 2% y/y, while we expect the Own Stores segment to decline by 10% y/y due to the ongoing closure of unprofitable stores. Among the smaller segments, we anticipate the Distributor segment to decline by approximately 9%, reflecting weakness in the Norwegian market. We expect the Licensing segment to contribute modestly following the integration of the footwear category, which previously represented a significant portion of this segment's revenue.

By geography, we estimate strong growth in Germany, driven by increased sales to Zalando, the company's major e-tailer, as well as in Finland, which benefits from favorable year-over-year comparisons. However, Sweden, Björn Borg’s largest market, faces a very tough comparison, as the market delivered 43% revenue growth in Q4’24. In addition, recent market data indicates subdued demand in the Swedish apparel market during the quarter, with monthly performance showing growth of 3% in October and 7.5% in November, followed by a decline of 2.2% in December. We believe this pattern suggests relatively weak consumer purchasing power, with spending concentrated around the Black Week promotional period, likely pulling forward Christmas shopping demand.

Gross margin supported by FX tailwinds

We forecast Björn Borg's FX-adjusted gross margin to decline to 52.0% in Q4'25 compared to 53.5% in the corresponding period last year. This is mainly driven by the company’s continued focus on driving growth and gaining market share, which we expect will require higher discounting and, in turn, put pressure on gross margins. However, we expect FX effects to support the gross margin, resulting in a reported gross margin of 54.0% in Q4, compared to last year's level of 53.3%. In terms of operating expenses, we estimate an increase due to heightened marketing activities. However, we believe that sales growth, combined with a modest gross margin expansion, will result in a slight increase in absolute EBIT to 18 MSEK (Q4'24: 17 MSEK), below Retail Consensus.

For FY2025, we forecast EPS of SEK 3.51 and expect Björn Borg to increase its dividend from SEK 3.00 to SEK 3.20 per share. With a solid balance sheet and net debt/EBITDA of 1.0x (by Q3’25), excluding leases, we believe the high payout is sustainable. Over the long term, we expect Björn Borg to continue distributing a large share of its earnings through dividends.

Outlook likely to remain positive, but growth targets are still ambitious

Björn Borg does not provide financial guidance or specific forward-looking statements, referring only to its long-term financial targets of at least 10% revenue growth and an EBIT margin of at least 10%. While we expect Björn Borg’s growth outlook to remain good in 2026 as well, driven by a gradual recovery in consumer demand, we believe achieving its target of 10% annual sales growth will be challenging. While Björn Borg has successfully expanded its sports apparel category, we would like to see clearer signs of increasing volumes in footwear, which has disappointed in the latest quarters. In our view, it will take time to significantly grow footwear sales, as the company needs to improve quality, enhance design, and streamline distribution, similar to the transformation seen in sports apparel following its full integration in the mid-2010s. However, we believe that the company’s margin will remain at good levels, on the right side of its target, driven by solid sales growth, especially in the profitable Own e-commerce segment.