Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/29/2026 at 7:30 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

CapMan publishes its Q1 results on Wednesday May 6, 2026, at 8:00 am EEST. We expect the company to achieve revenue growth driven by management fees but anticipate that the earnings level will remain modest due to the absence of carried interest income and subdued investment income. The report's main takeaway is the progress of fundraising, as the current year is critical for the success of the company's flagship funds and achieving its strategic period targets.

New sales still sluggish early in the year

For Q1, we expect CapMan's revenue to grow by 18% year-on-year to 15.3 MEUR. We estimate that carried interest has been close to zero in the first part of the year and that revenue therefore consists almost entirely of recurring fees. At the same time, growth is also entirely based on recurring fees, driven by the CAERUS acquisition, new sales of open-ended real estate funds, and the Midstar arrangement for the hotel fund (4/25).

The company did not announce any fund closings in Q1, and, in our view, Q1 new sales depend entirely on open-ended funds and the new PE program. We do not expect significant sales of open-ended real estate funds because the real estate team is focused on selling the new Nordic Real Estate IV fund. Thus, we estimate that assets under management (AUM) will remain at approximately the year-end level (7.2 BEUR).

Fee profit should continue to improve

We estimate the adjusted EBIT to be 4.9 MEUR (Q1'25: 7.3 MEUR). EBIT is weighed down by the absence of carried interest and lower-than-normal investment income. We estimate investment income to be 2.7 MEUR, as market uncertainty in November has likely caused a decrease in certain investments. We note that the development of the investment portfolio at a quarterly level has little significance for CapMan due to its poor predictability. We expect fee profit, critical to the share's performance, to be at 2.2 MEUR (Q1'25: 1.5 MEUR). However, the margin is at a modest level (Q1'26e: 14%), and clearer improvement requires growth to the next level of scale. We are closely monitoring cost levels again, as expenses in the Q4'25 report significantly exceeded our expectations. For the investment case, we consider it paramount that cost growth stabilizes so that profitability scales with growth.

Fundraising must succeed in 2026

For CapMan, 2026 is a strategically crucial “make-or-break” year, as the firm is raising capital for several major spearhead funds simultaneously (Nordic Real Estate IV, Dasos European Forest Fund IV, Infra III, and CAERUS 8). Success in raising these funds is essential for the company to grow to the next level and for its profitability to scale. The recent rise in interest rates has been particularly detrimental to fundraising for real estate funds, and we expect management to address the temporary slowdown in fundraising. At the same time, however, we believe the company will reiterate its view on the progress of fundraising for large funds in 2026. The company will also reiterate its guidance, which estimates that assets under management and fee profit will grow in 2026. A potential first closing of the real estate fund would be very welcome news and would clearly remove uncertainty.