Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/6/2026 at 9:22 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

CapMan published its Q2 report on Thursday. The company's numbers were clearly below our expectations due to lower-than-expected revenue and weak investment income. The report's positive aspects were the cost trend and strong fundraising development, which had already been anticipated. Despite the significant earnings disappointment, we believe the report will lead to only limited changes in forecasts because the drivers behind earnings improvement appear to be firmly in place in the coming years.

Revenue remained soft, fundraising performed excellently

CapMan’s Q2 revenue grew by 8% and was 15.2 MEUR, falling significantly short of our estimate of 18.0 MEUR. All revenue lines were below our estimates. The deviation in management fees was the smallest, but transaction-driven wealth management fees were significantly below our estimates. In addition, no carried interest income was recorded for the quarter, whereas we had expected 1.0 MEUR to accrue. The large revenue miss appears more dramatic than it actually is because a significant portion of the difference is explained by non-recurring income and, in terms of carried interest, it is purely a matter of timing.

Fundraising was the clearest bright spot of the report. In Q2, the company raised 440 MEUR in new capital, which is slightly below our estimate. According to our calculations, the closings of both Nordic Real Estate IV and Nordic Infrastructure III were slightly smaller than we had estimated. In any case, sales performance in Q2 was excellent, and important successes significantly decrease the risk profile associated with fundraising. We would like to point out that successful fundraising is an absolute prerequisite for the company's earnings growth and the scalability of its fee profit in the coming years.

Earnings remained subdued, cost development positive for the first time in a long time

Q2 adjusted EBIT was 4.0 MEUR, falling dramatically short of our 9.3 MEUR estimate. About half of the earnings miss can be explained by lower-than-expected revenue, and the other half by investment income. Investment income was unexpectedly low, considering the positive market sentiment and the significant exits that occurred in the first half of the year. It is important to note that estimating investment income on a quarterly basis is extremely difficult, and the resulting earnings volatility from fluctuations is of little significance to investors. Fee profit was at the level of the comparison period, 1.3 MEUR, which was a clear disappointment to us.

The cost structure developed positively relative to our estimates for the first time in a while. Personnel expenses were lower than our estimates, and the number of personnel actually decreased from the previous quarter. In our interpretation, other expenses included success fees to distributors related to fund closings, and adjusted for these, expense growth would have been very modest. In her comments, the CEO added that the company aims to keep cost levels steady while revenue grows in line with fund growth. This scalability should become more evident in the company's figures starting in 2027. As we have consistently stated, successful cost control is absolutely critical for the company to raise its profitability to its potential.

No surprises in the outlook

As expected, the company reiterated its outlook, expecting assets under management and fee profit to grow in 2026. Both are already self-evident at this point in the year, and the main question is the rate of growth. Management's comments were still very positive, and the company expects fundraising to progress for the remainder of the year. Additionally, the company surprisingly directly stated that it expects carried interest for the rest of the year. We believe the greatest short-term profit-sharing potential lies in the Infra 1 fund, but a few more exits are necessary for this to materialize.