CapMan Q3'26 flash comment: Pressure is mounting on the rest of the year
Summary
- CapMan's Q3 report was disappointing overall, with revenue at 19.2 MEUR exceeding estimates due to strong carried interest income, but fee profit was weaker than expected.
- Adjusted EBIT was significantly below expectations at 6.2 MEUR, primarily due to sluggish investment returns, and the cost structure was higher than anticipated despite a reduction in personnel.
- The company maintained its guidance for asset and fee profit growth during 2026, but challenging market conditions, particularly in real estate, are expected to impact near-term earnings.
- CapMan aims for successful fund closures by year-end to boost fee profit, with long-term earnings improvement dependent on completing flagship funds by 2027.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/05/2026 at 09:04 am EET
| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Difference (%) | 2026e | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Act. vs. Inderes | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 15.4 | 19.2 | 18.1 | 6 % | 71.0 | |
| EBIT (adj.) | 8.5 | 6.2 | 9.9 | -37 % | 23.3 | |
| EBIT | 7.8 | 5.0 | 9.3 | -46 % | 20.8 | |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | -18 % | 0.08 | |
| Revenue growth-% | 20.6 % | 24.6 % | 17.4 % | 7.1 pp | 12.6 % | |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 55.1 % | 32.3 % | 54.7 % | -22.4 pp | 32.8 % |
Source: Inderes
CapMan’s Q3 report published this morning was disappointing as a whole. The strong development of carried interest was a clear plus, but the modest performance of the fee profit clearly weighs more on the scale. New sales were subdued during the review period as expected, but the company expects the next closings for its key funds during 2027. Success in new sales remains by far the most important driver for the share.
Carried interest income offsets the softness in recurring fees
CapMan's revenue was 19.2 MEUR, exceeding our 18.1 MEUR estimate. Strong revenue was explained by significant profit-sharing income, which the company recorded well above our expectations (3.6 vs. 1.0 MEUR). Management fees, which are critical for earnings improvement in the coming years, fell short of expectations due to exits and low transaction fees (15.6 vs. 17.1 MEUR). Thus, the revenue mix was softer than we expected despite the beat. However, management fees increased by 13% year-on-year. New sales were subdued as we expected, and assets under management remained stable at 7.7 BEUR during the quarter.
Result clearly below expectations
CapMan's adjusted EBIT was 6.2 MEUR, which was well below our estimate of 9.9 MEUR. The miss is entirely explained by investment returns on the balance sheet, which remained at a very sluggish level of 0.6 MEUR for the quarter. Like revenue, the earnings mix was weaker than expected, as a significant portion of earnings came from carried interest. The most important single metric for the company's value, namely fee profit, decreased from the Q3'25 level due to increased costs and lower transaction fees. For the first nine months, the fee profit is only marginally ahead of the previous year, which is a clear disappointment for us. The cost structure was somewhat higher than expected in Q3, but the number of personnel decreased for the second consecutive quarter, which is an encouraging signal. On the lower lines of the income statement, the company recorded significant positive income taxes for reasons currently unknown, which lifted EPS to EUR 0.03. Minority interests were higher than we expected, and according to our calculations, nearly 40% of the earnings (adjusted for investment income from early in the year) went to minority owners.
Market conditions have become more challenging as expected
CapMan reiterated its guidance for the current year as expected, according to which the company estimates that its assets under management and fee profit will grow during 2026. Following the Q3 disappointment, fee profit is only marginally ahead of the previous year, but fund closures towards the end of the year should clearly boost fee profit in Q4.
As for market commentary, the management noted, as expected, that the market situation has become more challenging during the fall, especially in the real estate sector. However, the company stated that investor discussions are active and it is targeting subsequent closes in several funds this year. According to the company, successful exits and the ~480 MEUR returned to investors early in the year create an important foundation for successful future fundraising. Although the rather weak fee profit creates some downward pressure on our near-term earnings estimates, the long-term earnings improvement most relevant to the investment profile continues to rely on successfully bringing the ongoing flagship funds to completion during 2027.