Enento Group Q4'25 preview: Demand environment should be moderately improving

Source: Inderes & Enento (6 analysts, consensus)

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/5/2026 at 7:00 am EET.

Enento will publish its Q4 interim report on Friday, February 13, 2026, and the company's earnings release can be followed at 2:00 pm EET here. We expect Enento's reported revenue to have grown moderately in the fourth quarter, supported by exchange rates, and EBIT to have improved slightly year-on-year. We have added some one-off costs to our Q4 estimates from the change negotiations carried out by the company at the end of the year. In the report, particular attention will be paid to the initial comments from the new CEO, who started in early January, and the outlook for 2026. There is not much to celebrate in the operating environment yet, especially in Finland, but in Sweden, the economic environment is showing signs of recovery. We believe the company should be able to achieve moderate growth and improved earnings this year.

Currency-driven growth

Enento has guided for 2025 revenue of 150–156 MEUR, and our full-year forecast is 152.6 MEUR. We expect Enento's Q4 revenue to have grown by around 3% to 39.0 MEUR. We estimate that growth is mainly driven by the tailwind from exchange rates (SEK), while in comparable currencies, we expect revenue development to have been largely flat. By business area, we estimate that Business Insight continued its stable development, supported by good demand for compliance and real estate information services, among others. Demand for Consumer Insight remains sluggish, but revenue here should receive clearer support from currencies (operations are concentrated in Sweden). Although Sweden's economic growth prospects have improved and consumer credit information volumes have stabilized, regulatory changes in the Swedish market continue to keep the outlook somewhat subdued. The transformation of the Swedish SME business may also have had a negative impact on Q4 revenue and will continue to do so this year.

A slight improvement in operational performance

Enento has guided that its adjusted EBITDA for 2025 will be 50-55 MEUR, and our full-year estimate is around the lower end of this range at 51.0 MEUR. For Q4, our forecast is 12.1 MEUR (Q4'24: 11.7 MEUR). We expect adjusted EBIT to have been 9.3 MEUR (Q4'24: 8.4 MEUR). The slight earnings improvement in our forecasts is largely due to moderate revenue growth. Profitability is still being weighed down by a weaker sales mix, as the share of lower-margin products, such as real estate services, in revenue has increased, while the share of higher-margin products, such as consumer credit information, has decreased. The increase in data acquisition prices should no longer have a negative impact on the gross margin, but we expect the gross margin to have still decreased from the comparison period due to the sales mix, although the development has stabilized compared to the previous quarter. The reported result in Q4 will be burdened by costs related to the company's minor change negotiations, which we have included in our forecasts. These only affect our reported forecasts (adjusted as non-recurring items) but are nevertheless cash flow-affecting expenses. We expect reported EBIT to have improved to 5.4 MEUR (Q4'24: 4.3 MEUR).

We expect Enento's Board of Directors to propose a dividend of EUR 1.0 per share, similar to last year. The dividend would exceed the company's reported and adjusted earnings per share, and would therefore not be sustainable at the current earnings level. In our forecasts, the company will return to clearer earnings growth this year, in which case a dividend slightly higher than earnings would not be particularly dramatic in our view. A dividend cut could also be a well-justified solution, as the company maintained a dividend of EUR 1.0 last year, exceeding earnings, which has led to an increase in the indebtedness ratio (Q3'25 net debt / adj. EBITDA 2.8x). Should the Board of Directors propose a dividend of EUR 1.0, it would likely be paid in two installments, similar to last year, with the payment of the second installment to be decided by the Board at a later date.

Eyes on 2026 and the new CEO's debut

The most interesting aspect of the report relates to the 2026 outlook and the initial comments from the new CEO, Teppo Paavola. We currently forecast revenue growth of approximately 3% for 2026, with adjusted EBITDA increasing very moderately to 52.2 MEUR. This should be supported by the accelerating economic growth in Sweden, as predicted by economists, although regulatory changes there continue to create uncertainty in the transformation of the Consumer Insight and SME businesses into Business Insight. The latter, however, should have a positive impact on profitability as the year progresses. In Finland, economic growth forecasts are more moderate, but Business Insight has still developed more steadily, supported by growing new product areas. Earnings development is largely dependent on volume trends, but cost-side measures also have an impact (e.g. the change negotiations held by the company at the end of the year). We look forward to the new CEO's comments on Enento's condition and how the company can be put back on a clearer path to earnings growth.