Enersense Q3'26 flash comment: Q4 has to carry the load
Summary
- Enersense's Q3 revenue exceeded forecasts, growing by 7% year-on-year to 87.1 MEUR, driven by a 68% increase in Power's revenue, despite declines in Energy Transition and Connectivity.
- Adjusted EBITDA fell short of expectations at 5.5 MEUR, impacted by slower project starts and lower demand in certain segments, while one-off costs related to strategic changes affected reported EBITDA.
- The company maintained its earnings guidance for the current year, expecting a strong Q4 to meet its adjusted EBITDA target of 19–23 MEUR, though timing factors pose risks to achieving this.
- Market conditions in Finland and Sweden remain positive, with ongoing investments in electricity and telecommunications networks, while the Baltic market is expected to stay subdued for the rest of the year.
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| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Q3'26e | Diff-% | 2026e | |
| MEUR/EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Act. vs. Inderes | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 81.1 | 87.1 | 77.7 | 12% | 317 | ||
| EBITDA | 5.8 | 2.9 | 5.0 | -42% | 16.6 | ||
| EBITDA (adj.) | 9.2 | 5.5 | 6.0 | -8% | 20.0 | ||
| EBIT | 3.8 | 1.0 | 2.9 | -67% | 8.4 | ||
| Profit before tax | 1.6 | -0.3 | 1.7 | -117% | 2.2 | ||
| EPS (reported) | 0.10 | -0.05 | 0.05 | -192% | -0.11 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | -27.3% | 7.4% | -4.2% | 11.6 pp | 3.2% | ||
| EBITDA-% (adj.) | 11.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | -1.3 pp | 6.3% |
Source: Inderes
Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/5/2026 at 9:25 am EET.
Enersense published its Q3 report this morning. Revenue clearly exceeded our forecast, while the operating result fell slightly short of our estimate. The company made no changes to its guidance and expects a strong rest of the year, which is also needed to meet the guidance. The market outlook remains positive in Finland and Sweden, while activity in the Baltics continues at lower levels. The company’s Q3 webcast can be followed here from 12:30 pm EET.
Revenue clearly ahead of our estimate
Revenue grew by 7% year-on-year to 87.1 MEUR. Excluding operations sold or discontinued in 2025, revenue grew by 14% to 87.0 MEUR. The company has restated the comparison figure: in the Q3'25 report, core business revenue was still reported at 81.0 MEUR. By business unit, Power’s revenue grew by as much as 68%. Overall growth was held back, however, particularly by reported revenue declines in Energy Transition (-53% y/y) and Connectivity (-19% y/y). Relative to our forecasts, Power exceeded our expectations, while Connectivity and Energy Transition fell short.
The order book also declined year-on-year at the end of Q3 (318 MEUR vs. Q3'25: 379 MEUR), partly reflecting Power’s exceptionally strong comparison period. Connectivity’s order book also develops unevenly, as most of its sales come through framework agreements. Note, too, that larger orders can cause short-term swings in the order book.
Operating earnings fell short of our forecasts
Enersense’s adjusted EBITDA was 5.5 MEUR, short of our 6.0 MEUR forecast. By business unit, Power’s result slightly exceeded our expectations, while Connectivity and especially Energy Transition, which remained slightly loss-making, fell short. Energy Transition was affected by the slower start of the Aquatech project, which we also highlighted in our preview, while Connectivity’s result was weighed down by lower demand for fiber-optic projects. Items not allocated to business areas, by contrast, were positive once again. These reflected timing differences in the accrual and allocation of shared costs. As a result, we believe the segment figures do not give a full picture of the units’ performance. Reported EBITDA, meanwhile, was weighed down by significantly higher-than-expected one-off items related to the strategy renewal, the new ERP system, and Power’s discontinued and reorganized operations in Estonia. Costs below EBITDA were largely in line with our forecasts.
Earnings guidance reiterated, with a strong end to the year expected
In connection with the report, Enersense reiterated its guidance for the current year, as we expected, and estimates its adjusted EBITDA to be 19–23 MEUR (2025: 18.8 MEUR). The company expects several projects to accelerate in the final quarter of the year, leading it to anticipate a strong end to the year. Prior to the report, our forecast for the current year's adjusted EBITDA was 20.0 MEUR, and we do not see any material pressure for changes to this. We had already expected a strong year-end, which is also needed to meet the guidance (January–September adj. EBITDA: 10.1 MEUR). However, the heavy Q4 weighting raises the risk that timing factors, such as weather and project schedules, jeopardize the guidance.
The company’s market comments were also largely unchanged. It expects conditions in the key market segments of its strategy to remain good in 2026. According to the company, investments are being made in the capacity and reliability of electricity and telecommunications networks in Finland and Sweden. Data center investments, in particular, increase capacity requirements. The Baltic market, by contrast, slowed in H1 and is expected to remain subdued for the rest of the year. At the same time, the company believes the cautiously positive trend in investment in the clean energy transition will continue. Individual large investment projects can impact market development.