Enersense Q4'25 preview: The gradient of efficiency improvement under scrutiny

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 02/09/2026 at 08:17 am EET

Source: Inderes

Enersense publishes its 2025 financial statements release on Thursday, February 12, 2026, and the company's earnings release can be followed here at noon EET. We expect the company's core businesses' operating results to have grown, supported by efficiency measures. In the report, we focus on the 2026 guidance, the progress of the Value Uplift efficiency program, and more detailed market commentary.

We expect the revenue of the core businesses to have grown slightly

We forecast Enersense's reported revenue to have decreased significantly from the comparison period. This is due to the high revenue level of previous non-core businesses (especially the marine industry unit) in the comparison period. Instead, we estimate that the revenue of Enersense's core businesses has shown slight growth in Q4 and settled at 85.6 MEUR (Q4’25: 83.0 MEUR). We expect the strengthened order book to have supported growth in Q3. At the same time, it is worth noting that there is uncertainty regarding the more precise timing of the order book. Broken down by business unit, we expect slight growth in both Power and Energy Transition, while Connectivity is expected to remain stable.

We estimate that the operating result has improved from the comparison period

Similarly, our estimate for the adjusted EBITDA of core businesses is 5.0 MEUR. The company's guidance for the full year 2025 is that the adjusted EBITDA of its core businesses will be 16-20 MEUR, which would indicate an operational result of 1.5-5.5 MEUR for Q4. Thus, our full-year estimate is at the top of the guidance range. Among the business units, we expect Power to have driven the earnings improvement, as its comparison period result was significantly weighed down (1.8 MEUR) by increased provisions. We also expect unallocated expenses to have been slightly lower than in the comparison period, while the development of other business units is expected to have been relatively stable. Our estimate for the Group's reported EBITDA is 2.8 MEUR, but there is elevated uncertainty regarding the level of reported figures due to one-off items (e.g. Value Uplift, ERP project, results of associated companies).

Meanwhile, we expect depreciation and financial costs to have been at roughly the same level as in the previous quarter. Reflecting this development, we estimate that reported EPS for Q4 fell slightly into the red. Despite the financing arrangement implemented at the end of the year, we do not expect the company to pay a dividend on its earnings, but rather to focus capital on implementing its growth strategy.

2026 guidance is the main area of interest

We expect Enersense to provide guidance for 2026, which will pave the way towards the company's long-term financial targets. In light of this, we estimate that the company's earnings guidance metric will change from EBITDA to EBIT or EBIT margin (cf. 2028 financial target > 5% E margin).  Ahead of the report, we estimate the company's revenue to grow to 337 MEUR this year, and adjusted EBIT to be 13.9 MEUR (adj. EBIT-% 4.1%). In addition to revenue growth, we expect earnings growth to be supported by the benefits of the Value Uplift program, which currently has a target of 6.5 MEUR by mid-2026. We will therefore continue to monitor the company's comments on the program's progress and any updated targets (including cost estimates).  

As usual, we are also monitoring more detailed market commentary with great interest. Of the core businesses, we estimate that the demand situation for the Power business unit remained good, supported by the investment needs of energy infrastructure, and that it will also serve as the company's growth engine, bolstered by a strong order book. Correspondingly, we expect the outlook for the Connectivity segment to have remained relatively stable, whereas for Energy Transition, growth materialization is still partly dependent on an improvement in general economic development.