Translation: Original published in Finnish on 5/6/2025 at 7:30 am EEST.

Koskisen will publish its Q1 results on Friday at around 8:30 am EEST. Market expectations are up on the comparison period, which was burdened by strikes. For the current year, Koskisen is expected to reiterate its guidance for revenue growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7-11%. We do not see a clear pricing error in Koskisen's stock in either direction ahead of the Q1 report. 

Q1 growth likely driven by Sawn Timber Industry

We forecast Koskisen's revenue to increase by 17% to 75 MEUR in Q1. Our estimate is slightly above consensus. In our forecast, growth is driven by Sawn Timber Industry where the higher volumes due to the progress of the new saw line in Järvelä as well as the slightly higher sales prices for sawn timber have increased revenue. In the comparison period, the Finnish port strikes disrupted deliveries, especially in Sawn Timber Industry, so the comparison figure is also modest. In Panel Industry, we expect revenue to be stable, as a weak market situation such as in the comparison period has probably not allowed for volume growth, and prices for birch plywood and chipboard have also developed rather steadily.

Earnings improvement also due to Sawn Timber Industry

We expect Koskisen's adjusted EBITDA to improve by just under 30% to 7.1 MEUR in the first quarter from a modest comparison level. Our forecast is above consensus. We expect Sawn Timber Industry to have improved profitability, mainly due to volume growth and efficiency gains from the progress of the Järvelä investments’ ramp-ups. In addition, Sawn Timber Industry's profitability in Q1 has been supported by by-products sold at good price levels, although by-product volumes in the energy sector have probably been sluggish due to the warm winter in Southern Finland. In Panel Industry, we estimate that higher birch log prices in Q1 weighed on profitability relative to the comparison period. Taking into account the small loss of the Other unit, the significantly increased depreciation due to the ramp-up of investments in the Järvelä sawmill, low financial expenses and taxes, we expect Koskisen's EPS to increase to EUR 0.11 in Q1, driven by the growth in operating profit. There are no one-off items in our forecasts, but small one-off costs of a few hundred thousand euros related to the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä would not be surprising. Our forecast is also above consensus for the bottom line.   

Company likely to reiterate guidance

Koskisen has issued a guidance for 2025 according to which revenue will grow from last year (2024: 282 MEUR revenue) and the adjusted EBITDA margin will be 7-11%. We expect Koskisen to reiterate the guidance in the Q1 report, and this seems to be the consensus market expectation as well. The company's market situation has remained subdued in the first months of the year, but we have expected a more significant recovery in construction only in H2 and next year, and the timber market to remain tight. In our view, Koskisen will neither suffer nor benefit directly from the tightening of trade policy, but the possible indirect effects of changes in the general economic situation or trade flows are difficult to predict. According to our estimates, the company should achieve its relatively wide margin range, although relative profitability, at least in the short term, will be reduced by the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä, which affects the low-margin Sawn Timber Industry and is likely to be completed in Q2.