Koskisen is active in the forest industry. The company specializes in the manufacture and distribution of industrial wood products. The company's product portfolio is broad and mainly includes wood products such as sawn wood, plywood, chipboard, and veneer. The business is run via various business segments and the customers can be found in a number of industries around the global market. The largest presence is found in Finland. The company was founded in 1909 and has its headquarters in Järvelä, Finland.
We reiterate our EUR 9.00 target price and Reduce recommendation for Koskisen. Koskisen's Q3 report was disappointing in terms of earnings, but this was partly due to one-off factors, and the changes to forecasts for the coming years were ultimately fairly minor. We see clear earnings growth potential for Koskisen in the coming years, as the construction cycle gradually recovers and the company's substantial investments over the past years reach fruition. However, we believe this has already been adequately priced into the share price, which has risen by more than 30% this year, meaning the expected return on the share over a 12-month horizon remains close to the required return.
Koskisen's Q3 result published this morning was below our and consensus expectations. Koskisen reiterated its guidance as expected, and we anticipate that the company will achieve it despite Q3's setback.
Koskisen will publish its Q3 results on Friday at around 8:30 am EET. Market expectations are for an improved year-on-year result, driven by the Sawn Timber Industry, which saw significant improvement already in H1. However, we have slightly lowered our Q3 estimates for Koskisen related to the Panel Industry. We expect Koskisen to reiterate its guidance for revenue growth and an adjusted EBITDA-% of 7-11% for the current year in its Q3 report. We will not change our target price of EUR 9.00 for Koskisen, which we consider neutrally priced, nor our Reduce recommendation prior to the Q3 report (2026e: P/E 11x).
On Friday, Koskisen held a call with analysts ahead of the Q3 silent period. The overall picture of the company's comments for Q3 was slightly weaker than our expectations due to the delay in the Panel Industry's investment program, but in the big picture, no major fluctuations have occurred in the company's market situation, and there is a slight relief in sight for wood costs in the coming quarters.
En utvärdering som ska slutföras under resten av året kan leda till försäljning, delning eller börsnotering av företaget. Enligt vår mening var planen ingen större överraskning med tanke på UPM:s medvetet byggda struktur och de värdeskapande möjligheter som begränsas av den långvariga dåliga konjunkturen inom skogssektorn. Arrangemanget som riktas mot Plywood har en liten inverkan på den övergripande bilden av UPM:s aktie i alla scenarier. Ur investerarnas synvinkel anser vi att det är mer intressant att samma verktyg, eller ens en antydan om det, skulle kunna vara lämplig för att frigöra eventuellt dolt värde i till exempel Energy eller Adhesive Materials (tidigare Raflatac).
We raise Koskisen's target price to EUR 9.00 (was EUR 8.25), reflecting a slight decrease in the required return. In our opinion, however, the share price increase (+30% this year) has already eroded the best part of the short-term expected return, so we decrease the company's recommendation to Reduce (was Accumulate). In our opinion, Koskisen's Q2 report was fairly neutral overall. Although we did not make any significant changes to our near-future forecasts, we believe that the strong performance in H1 has slightly reduced the share's risk level.
Koskisen's Q2 result published this morning was slightly better than consensus forecasts, but the figures did not quite meet our own expectations. There are no clear signs of a market recovery, and sluggish demand and uncertainty will likely continue to weigh on the market at least until the end of the year. However, the company reiterated its guidance as expected, and Koskisen is well on track to achieve it after H1.
Koskisen will publish its Q2 results on Monday at around 8:30 am EEST. While market expectations suggest results that are generally consistent with the comparison figures, our forecasts are slightly more optimistic, as we anticipate continued improvement, especially in the performance of the Sawn Timber Industry, similar to Q1.
Koskisen held a call with analysts yesterday ahead of the Q2 silent period and published the main themes of the Q&A in a press release. According to the company, developments in the business environment were broadly stable after adjusting for normal seasonal fluctuations, and the discussion revealed no significant surprises relative to the company's expectations.
