Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/18/2025 at 9:21 am EEST.

Source: Inderes & Koskisen, 3 analysts (consensus)

Koskisen's Q2 result published this morning was slightly better than consensus forecasts, but the figures did not quite meet our own expectations. There are no clear signs of a market recovery, and sluggish demand and uncertainty will likely continue to weigh on the market at least until the end of the year. However, the company reiterated its guidance as expected, and Koskisen is well on track to achieve it after H1. 

Earnings continued to improve in Q2, but momentum was not up to our expectations

Koskisen's revenue grew by 15% in Q2 from a reasonable comparison figure (cf., in Q2'24, deliveries in the Sawn Timber Industry were supported by strike-related delays), landing between our and the consensus forecasts. While growth was mainly driven by increased volumes and prices in the Sawn Timber Industry, the unit's deliveries fell slightly short of our forecasts and Q1 results. Iisveden Metsä was included in the Sawn Timber Industry figures for one month. However, based on the commentary, its contribution may have fallen somewhat short of our expectations. In the Panel Industry, both price and volume trends appear to have been fairly stable in Q2, and the unit's revenue was well in line with our estimates.  

Koskisen's adjusted EBITDA increased by 10% to 10.3 MEUR in the second quarter. The operating result was in line with consensus but below our forecast. The main reasons for the shortfall were that expenses in both units exceeded our projections. High log prices continued to drive up costs and challenge profitability. We also expected a slight positive contribution from Iisveden Metsä, but the company stated that the acquisition's impact on earnings remained limited in Q2. The slight loss in the Other segment was broadly in line with our expectations. On the lower lines, the net burden of depreciation, finance costs and tax rate was quite in line with our expectations, but due to higher depreciation, the bottom lines of the income statement remained flat year-on-year despite the improvement in EBITDA. In terms of cash flow, the report looks reasonable after a lackluster Q1, even though cash flow from operating activities fell in Q2 from a strong comparison figure.  

Guidance remained unchanged as expected

Koskisen reiterated its guidance for 2025 according to which revenue will grow from last year (2024: 282 MEUR revenue) and the adjusted EBITDA margin will be 7-11%. The reiteration of the broad guidance was fully expected in our opinion. We expect Koskisen to achieve its guidance without any problems, thanks to a fairly good H1, the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä, and the growth and efficiency benefits of investments throughout the year. However, there seems to be no quick relief in sight for the market situation as the company noted that the upturn in demand is modest and uncertain, with erratic US tariff policies stifling particularly consumer-driven demand (albeit indirectly from Koskisen's perspective), and European demand-stimulating measures have yet to take effect.