Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/14/2025 at 8:05 am EEST.

Source: Inderes, Modular Finance consensus (3 estimates)

Koskisen will publish its Q2 results on Monday at around 8:30 am EEST. While market expectations suggest results that are generally consistent with the comparison figures, our forecasts are slightly more optimistic, as we anticipate continued improvement, especially in the performance of the Sawn Timber Industry, similar to Q1. At this stage in the current year, Koskisen is expected to reiterate its guidance for revenue growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7-11%.

Growth has been driven by Sawn Timber Industry

We forecast Koskisen's revenue to increase by 17% to 91 MEUR in the seasonally favorable Q2. Our estimate is slightly above consensus. In our forecast, growth is driven by Sawn Timber Industry where the higher volumes due to the progress of the new saw line in Järvelä, as well as the higher sales prices for sawn timber, have clearly increased organic revenue. Additionally, the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä, completed in early June, has slightly accelerated inorganic growth already in Q2. In Panel Industry, we expect revenue to be stable, as a weak market situation such as in the comparison period has probably not allowed for volume growth. We also estimate that prices for birch plywood and chipboard have also developed rather steadily.

Earnings improvement is also driven by growth in Sawn Timber Industry

We expect Koskisen's adjusted EBITDA to improve by just under 17% to 11.4 MEUR in Q2, along with revenue growth, from a moderate comparison period. Our estimate is slightly above consensus as well. We expect the Sawn Timber Industry to have improved profitability, mainly due to volume growth and efficiency gains from the Järvelä investments. We estimate that Iisveden Metsä has slightly supported the Sawn Timber Industry's EBITDA accumulation. In the Panel Industry, the rise in the price of birch logs has, in our estimation, weighed on profitability in Q2 relative to the comparison period, and we forecast a slight decline in the unit's result.  Taking into account the small loss of the Other unit, the significantly increased depreciation due to the ramp-up of investments in the Järvelä sawmill as well as low financial expenses and taxes, we expect Koskisen's EPS to increase by 14 % to EUR 0.24 in Q2, driven by growth in operating profit. Our forecast is also above consensus for the bottom line.   

Company likely to reiterate its broad guidance

Koskisen has issued a guidance for 2025 according to which revenue will grow from last year (2024: 282 MEUR revenue) and the adjusted EBITDA margin will be 7-11%. We expect the company to reiterate the guidance in the Q1 report, and this seems to be the consensus market expectation as well. The company's market situation appears to have developed fairly steadily and quite as expected during the first half of the year, as there has been no significant recovery in construction and the log prices have remained high. We estimate that the company will achieve its broad margin range thanks to a good H1, the benefits of efficiency-improving investments that are visible in results throughout the year, and the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä. Regarding the market situation, we don't expect Koskisen to signal any radical changes for better or worse in connection with the Q2 report. For Q3, the company may flag the impact of summer shutdowns on earnings, as these have been significant in recent years.