Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/6/2026 at 7:00 am EEST.

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (3 estimates)

Koskisen will publish its Q2 report on Thursday, August 13, at 8.30 am EEST. The company's earnings webcast can be followed here at 10:00 am EEST (in Finnish). We expect the company's revenue to have grown substantially due to the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä and the Sawn Timber Industry's organic growth. However, high wood costs and the continued downturn in the construction market are weighing on profitability. Koskisen will likely reiterate the guidance it lowered before Q1, as there are still no signs of a recovery in demand in the construction sector and log prices have also remained high. We make no changes to our view on Koskisen before the Q2 report.

We expect strong revenue growth to have continued in Q2

We forecast that Koskisen’s revenue increased by over 20% in the seasonally active Q2 to 109 MEUR, which is in line with the consensus estimate. We expect this growth to have originated primarily from the Sawn Timber Industry (+39% y/y), supported by two months of inorganic growth from the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä (estimated to account for half of the reported growth). We also anticipate that Järvelä's sawing volumes increased despite continued weakness in the construction sector. We estimate that the price level of sawn timber products remained only slightly below that of the comparison period but increased marginally from Q1. In the Panel Industry, we expect revenue to have developed on a slightly upward trajectory, driven by modest volume growth in the birch plywood segment. Based on the company's previous comments, demand for birch plywood has continued to exceed expectations, while volumes in the chipboard segment have, in our estimation, remained weak due to the segment's strong dependence on the construction market. We estimate that pricing in the Panel Industry also remained fairly stable.

Profitability has been squeezed downwards by high costs

We expect Koskisen's adjusted EBITDA to have decreased by 16% in the seasonally strong Q2 to 8.8 MEUR. Our forecasts are slightly more pessimistic than the consensus. In our view, the decline in earnings is largely due to the Sawn Timber Industry. Although the unit's revenue growth has been rapid, persistently high wood raw material prices and increased logistics costs have put pressure on margins. We believe that the weak demand environment has made it difficult to pass on increased costs to final sawn timber prices. Nor has Iisveden Metsä, in our assessment, contributed significantly to earnings in the current market. Margins are healthier in the Panel Industry, but costs related to the ramp-up of new technology and weak chipboard demand prevent an improvement in results against a fairly good comparison figure. In the lower lines, we expect Koskisen’s reported EPS to have fallen significantly, to 0.13 euros, reflecting the decline in operational earnings and higher depreciation. The report is also likely to be subdued in terms of cash flow, as we estimate that volume growth and seasonality kept the amount of committed working capital high.

Guidance likely to remain unchanged due to strain from the construction cycle and the wood market

We believe that Koskisen will reiterate the guidance it issued with its Q1 profit warning, which states that revenue will grow this year, but the adjusted EBITDA margin will remain below last year's level of 8.1%. We currently forecast that the adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year will come in at 6.5%, whereas consensus estimates are around 7%. In our assessment, the remainder of the year will be characterized by the same themes as Q2, as there are no concrete signs of recovery in the construction outlook and log prices have not significantly decreased from their early summer peaks. Additionally, we note that upcoming Q3 earnings will be weighed down by summer production shutdowns and the Central European holiday season, as typically occurs.