Koskisen Q4'25 flash comment: Expectations were too high for all key figures

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/13/2026 at 9:05 am EET.

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance consensus (3 estimates)

Koskisen's Q4 result, reported this morning, was mixed. Koskisen grew by the estimated 30%, due to the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä and increased volumes in the Sawn Timber Industry, but profitability fell clearly short of expectations. Earnings were particularly burdened by high wood costs in the Sawn Timber Industry and seasonally decreased sawn timber prices. The 2026 guidance was also more cautious than the market's expectations regarding profitability. The dividend proposal increased by 17% from the comparison period to EUR 0.14 per share, but our and consensus estimates had an even larger increase. According to our preliminary assessment, at least Koskisen's consensus forecasts face negative pressure to change this year, driven by Q4 profitability and guidance.

Revenue grew significantly in line with our forecasts

Koskisen's Q4 revenue increased by 30% to 95 MEUR, which was in line with our forecast and slightly exceeded the consensus. The acquisition of Iisveden Metsä brought the expected inorganic growth, and Sawn Timber Industry volumes increased with the ramp-up of the Järvelä saw line. The Panel Industry also grew on a volume-driven basis from a clearly weak comparison figure.

Sawn Timber Industry margins weakened due to wood costs

Koskisen's adjusted EBITDA improved significantly in Q4 from a modest comparison level, but the operating result fell well short of our estimates and especially the consensus. Profitability in both units was weaker than we had estimated. Contrary to our expectations, the Sawn Timber Industry's EBITDA decreased to 2.0 MEUR due to higher wood raw material costs and seasonally lower sawn timber prices. In Q4, the company likely used wood reserves purchased earlier at higher prices, which burdened profitability despite the decrease in roundwood market prices in Q4. Weakened demand for forest energy due to mild weather also weighed on earnings. The Panel Industry's EBITDA improved significantly to 4.3 MEUR due to recovered birch plywood volumes (profitability in the comparison period was burdened by non-recurring items).

Further down the P&L, Koskisen recorded marginal one-off expenses for Q4, while depreciation grew slightly faster than we estimated. There were no major surprises in finance costs and taxes. Thus, Koskisen's EPS for Q4 was clearly below expectations at EUR 0.04. In terms of cash flow, the report was also somewhat lackluster, as challenges related to logistics availability caused stocks of finished products to rise at the end of the year.

Guidance for 2026 remained more cautious than expected

Koskisen's guidance for 2026 is for revenue growth and an EBITDA margin of 8–12%. In terms of revenue, the guidance was exactly in line with expectations, as our and consensus forecasts predicted double-digit growth for the company this year (Koskisen did not use adjectives in its guidance). However, the midpoint of the profitability guidance of 10% fell quite clearly below the consensus forecast at the upper end of the range and also slightly below our own forecast (2026e: adj. EBITDA-% 10.6%). Based on our initial interpretation, there are still no signs of recovery in the market outlook, with weakness in construction and the negative effects of geopolitical uncertainty continuing. While the company's investments are gradually yielding efficiency gains, faster earnings growth would also require a boost from market conditions.