Modulight Q4'25 preview: Finishing touches on a year of growth

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/18/2026 at 7:00 am EET.

Modulight will publish its 2025 financial statements on Friday, February 20, 2026, at 11:00 am EET. We expect the company's revenue to have continued to grow and losses to have narrowed from the comparison period, even though EBIT remains clearly in the red. In the report, we will focus particularly on the development of recurring PPT revenue, cost savings from change negotiations, and cash adequacy.

The PPT model and order backlog as drivers of revenue growth

We expect Modulight's Q4 revenue to be around 2.2 MEUR, which would represent clear year-on-year growth (Q4'24: 1.4 MEUR). The key growth drivers are the progress of the Pay-Per-Treatment (PPT) model and the growth of the installed system base, which brings more stable revenue streams to the company. The recognition of the remaining portion of the previously announced quantum computing project may still support the quarter's figures, even though, in our view, the majority of it has already been realized in previous quarters. Additionally, we expect recurring revenue from Phase III clinical trials and the ophthalmic laser commercialized in the US, as patient recruitment and studies progress.

Cost control and gross margin mitigate the loss-making result

We forecast Q4 EBIT to be roughly -1.2 MEUR. Although the result is still loss-making, we expect an improvement year-on-year due to an improved gross margin and stricter cost management. The company's gross margin has recovered to a high level in recent quarters, supported by the growth of high-margin PPT revenue. We expect operating costs to be slightly lower than before due to the change negotiations carried out during Q3, which resulted in layoffs. However, the result is still burdened by significant depreciation due to the company's large production plant investments and capitalized development expenses. It is especially important to monitor the cash flow from operations and investments, as we estimate that at the current burn rate, the net cash will last for just over a year.

2026 outlook and financial situation in focus

Modulight does not typically provide numerical guidance, but the company's strategic goal for 2023–2025 has been strong annual revenue growth and strong profitability at the EBITDA level. After the strategy period ends, attention will turn to 2026, for which we currently forecast revenue of 10.1 MEUR. However, there is significant uncertainty regarding the growth rate, and we have not seen sufficient signs in recent reports of continued very strong growth. We also expect a strategy update from the company in the near future.

A key item to monitor is the company's financial position. Net cash at the end of Q3'25 was 7.3 MEUR, and the cash burn rate has been around 1.5 MEUR per quarter. We estimate that the company may have to resort to a new funding round as early as this year if business cash flow does not turn around quickly enough. In the report, we will pay particular attention to management's comments on the development of the order book, the progress of new customer projects, and any potential new commercial initiatives that could accelerate the turnaround in results.