NIBE Q2'26 preview: Climate Solutions to fuel margin rebound
Summary
- NIBE's Q2 revenue is expected to grow by 4.4% year-on-year, driven primarily by the Climate Solutions business area, despite currency headwinds affecting reported figures.
- The Climate Solutions segment is forecasted to achieve a 5% year-on-year revenue increase, supported by a recovery in European heat pump demand, with significant sales growth observed in Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands.
- Adjusted EBIT margin for Q2 is projected to improve to 11.3%, driven by higher sales volumes and effective cost control, surpassing the consensus forecast.
- Management's commentary on market dynamics, margin targets, and the M&A pipeline will be closely monitored, especially regarding the Stoves segment, which faces challenges from US tariffs.
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| Estimates | Q2'25 | Q2'26 | Q2'26e | Q2'26e | Consensus | 2026e | ||
| MSEK / SEK | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Low | High | Inderes | |
| Revenue | 10,082 | 10,526 | 10,553 | 9,973 | - | 10,766 | 42,931 | |
| EBIT (adj.) | 944 | 1,189 | 1,071 | 860 | - | 1,189 | 5,089 | |
| EBIT | 944 | 1,189 | 1,071 | 860 | - | 1,189 | 5,089 | |
| PTP | 700 | 999 | 903 | 667 | - | 999 | 4,326 | |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.35 | - | 0.40 | 1.66 | |
| Revenue growth-% | 0.5 % | 4.4 % | 4.7 % | -1.1 % | - | 6.8 % | 5.1 % | |
| EBIT-% | 9.4 % | 11.3 % | 10.1 % | 8.6 % | - | 11.0 % | 11.9 % | |
Source: Inderes & Bloomberg (17.08.2026 11 analysts)
NIBE will publish its Q2 report on Friday, 21 Aug, and the earnings webcast can be followed here at 11:00 CEST. We expect the report to confirm a continued recovery in both sales volumes and profitability, driven by the Climate Solutions business area. Recent supportive market data from key European countries support our confidence in the underlying heat pump market momentum. Our focus will be on management's commentary regarding the market dynamics and the progression towards the company's margin targets.
Climate Solutions to drive top-line recovery
We estimate that NIBE's Q2 revenue will grow by 4.4% year-on-year, in line with the consensus forecast, despite currency headwinds continuing to weigh on the reported figures. We expect the primary growth driver to be the Climate Solutions business area, for which we forecast Q2 revenue of 7,199 MSEK (+5% y/y), supported by a gradual recovery in European heat pump demand. Available Q2 market data shows sales growth across key European markets: Germany was up 40% in H1'26, Sweden up 14% in Q2, and the Netherlands up 6% in Q2. Peers such as Carrier (with European heat pump sales up ~20%) and Ariston (+8% European sales) echoed this positive trend. For the Element business area, we anticipate revenue of 2,882 MSEK (+3% y/y), supported by positive development in the semiconductor, rail, and HVAC segments. However, we expect the Stoves business area to remain a drag on top-line growth with estimated revenue of 644 MSEK (-5% y/y), as it continues to face a weak European market.
Margins rebounding on higher volumes and cost control
We forecast Q2 adjusted EBIT margin to strengthen to 11.3% (Q2'25: 9.4%), above consensus forecast. We expect the profitability improvement to be primarily driven by increased sales volumes in the Climate Solutions segment, coupled with sustained effective cost control and productivity improvements. We anticipate the Element business area to maintain a solid margin profile, while the Stoves segment will likely continue to face margin pressure stemming from lower volumes and the negative impact of US tariffs. On the bottom line, we expect Q2 EPS to increase to 0.39 SEK (Q2'25: 0.25 SEK), also above consensus forecast.
Focus on market dynamics and margin trajectory
NIBE does not provide specific numerical financial guidance. However, the company has consistently reiterated its ambition for all three business areas to return to their historical operating margins. In the Q2 report, we will look for management's updated commentary on this progression and the drivers behind margin expansion (price vs. volume). We are particularly interested in the Stoves segment, which received a cautious 6-8% margin outlook in Q1 due to tariff headwinds. Additionally, we will monitor any comments regarding the M&A pipeline, as leverage continues to improve alongside profitability.