Nibe Industrier

While NIBE’s Q3 report came in somewhat below our expectations, we believe the overall picture remains unchanged: a gradual recovery in sales volumes and margins continues moving in the right direction. Therefore, we view the market’s reaction, driving the share price down 13%, as somewhat exaggerated and see it as creating an even more attractive entry point into the company’s compelling long-term investment story. As a result, we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation but lower our target price slightly to SEK 38.0 per share (prev. SEK 40.0), mainly due to lower estimates.

NIBE’s valuation has continued to moderate, while European heat pump market data continues to show positive signals of a recovery, supporting our estimates. Medium-term valuation multiples (2026: P/E 21x and EV/EBIT: 17x) are well below the company’s long-term medians and appear attractive in our view. Therefore, we believe the company’s interesting long-term investment story can be accessed with a good risk/return ratio at the current valuation, and we are updating our recommendation to Accumulate (prev. Reduce) but reiterate our target price of SEK 40.0 per share.

NIBE announced on Monday that it had acquired 70% of the Italian company Selmo S.r.l. We believe that the acquisition is in line with the company's strategy and strengthens the Element business area. However, the deal is very small compared to NIBE’s scale, and it does not have an immediate significant impact on our estimates or view of the company. We will update the acquisition to our estimates in connection with the company’s Q3 report at the latest.

In our last update following the Q2 report, we reiterated our Sell recommendation for NIBE, and since then, the share price has fallen by around -20%. As a result, we believe that the valuation has come down to more neutral levels. However, at current valuation levels, we believe that the total expected return is roughly in line with our required return. As a result, we turn to a Reduce recommendation but reiterate our target price of SEK 40 per share.

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I denna analytikerintervju går vi igenom analyserna av NIBE, Metacon och Björn Borg efter Q2-rapportperioden. Vi diskuterar marknadsläget, efterfrågan och våra förväntningar på resten av 2025.