Nibe Industrier

7:21

Värmepumparna är tillbaka på rätt spår. Climate Solutions var drivkraften i Q1, och trots fortsatt svaghet i Stoves-segmentet ser analytiker Lucas Mattsson tillräckligt mycket åt rätt håll för att upprepa Öka-rekommendationen.

We believe that NIBE delivered a solid start to the year, with the Q1 report coming in broadly in line with our expectations. While the Stoves segment remained a drag and the near-term outlook is somewhat softer than we had anticipated, the underlying organic growth and margins within the key Climate Solutions business area continued to gradually recover. In addition, European heat pump market data continues to indicate improving demand trends, supporting our estimates for a continued recovery. Medium-term valuation multiples (2026-2027: P/E 21-24x and EV/EBIT: 16-19x) are below the company’s long-term medians and appear attractive in our view. Therefore, we believe the company’s interesting long-term investment story can be accessed with a good risk/reward ratio at the current valuation, and we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation and target price of SEK 44 per share.

We expect the report to show a gradual but continued recovery in both sales volumes and margins, particularly driven by the Climate Solutions business area.

According to data from Germany's Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK), applications for heat pump subsidies in Germany totaled 21,342 in January 2026. This represents a significant 49% increase compared to January 2025, although it is a sequential decrease that follows the typical seasonal pattern. In our view, today’s data offers a slight counterbalance to the recent negative headlines, indicating that underlying demand momentum in Germany, one of NIBE’s key markets, remains intact.

The German government’s decision to scrap key parts of its contentious heating law is an unfortunate development that we believe will have a negative impact on the German heat pump market. While it is currently difficult to determine the exact extent of the impact on NIBE, Germany remains a critical market and a primary growth driver for the company. In our view, this policy reversal increases the risk profile for the Climate Solutions business area in the medium term, as it reduces the regulatory pressure on German households to transition to renewable heating solutions.

20:09

Lönsamheten stack ut positivt i Q4-rapporten från Björn Borg, 2025 var ett rekordår för Metacon och har vi sett starten på vändningen för värmepumpsmarknaden och NIBE? Lyssna på denna analytikerintervju där vi behandlar 2025 i stora pensel drag och dyker oss ner i bolagens senaste kvartalsrapporter.