Nurminen Logistics Q4’25 preview : We expect modest earnings growth, but guidance is key

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 02/24/2026 at 07:55 am EET

Source: Inderes

Nurminen Logistics publishes its Q4 report on Thursday, February 26, at around 9.00 am (EET). We expect the company’s revenue to have grown clearly from the comparison period, supported by inorganic growth. We also estimate the company's earnings to have grown slightly in line with revenue growth. The main focus of the report is the guidance for this year and more detailed market commentary (incl. inorganic growth opportunities). 

We expect revenue to have grown year-on-year

We expect the company’s Q4 revenue to have grown by nearly 17% from the comparison period, especially supported by inorganic growth. Segment-wise, we expect growth to be driven by the Railway business. We estimate that the company's development was particularly supported by the inclusion of Essinge Rail (the acquisition was completed in December 2024), although we assess that the organic revenue of the Swedish business, in particular, remained under pressure, similar to previous quarters, due to improvements in Central European rail infrastructure (note: more detailed figures from the Railway business are not reported). We also estimate that North Rail grew, driven by higher volumes than in the comparison period, although the revenue level cannot be directly estimated from public statistics. Other international routes and Finnish businesses are expected to have grown moderately in absolute terms (excl. inorganic growth generated by ILP-Group Logistics) in line with Finland’s weak economic development. By contrast, we expect Baltic revenue to have clearly decreased from the comparison period and settled at 6.1 MEUR on par with Q3 (Q4’24: 8.0 MEUR). However, the company's development is affected by volatile raw material transports, which can vary considerably between quarters.

We expect slight earnings growth, supported by revenue

We estimate adjusted EBITA to have increased slightly year-on-year and to have been at a good level of 3.9 MEUR. We expect North Rail to continue as the most significant earnings driver, supported by its strong performance and the company's high margin level. However, we estimate the Group's margin level to have been under slight pressure due to the revenue mix (acquisitions and decreased Baltic revenue and profitability). Overall, however, we estimate that the Rail businesses' margin was at a good level and that the Baltic business maintained the margin level of previous quarters. Correspondingly, on the lower lines, we expect financial expenses and taxes to have been around normal levels. We expect the earnings attributable to Nurminen's shareholders to have been depressed by the minority interests in the Baltics and North Rail (Q4’25e: 0.8 MEUR). Reflecting this overall picture, we expect reported EPS to land at EUR 0.02.

We forecast the 2025 dividend/capital repayment proposal to be EUR 0.04 per share. In our view, however, there is increased uncertainty associated with the profit distribution proposal, as the company did not utilize the second part of last year's capital return authorization (actual capital return of EUR 0.03 per share vs. authorization of EUR 0.06; we will update this in our estimates in connection with the earnings release). We believe this indicates that Nurminen is preparing to continue inorganic growth as soon as a suitable opportunity arises. In our view, the company's financial position would have easily allowed for a second installment of profit-sharing (cf Q3’25 net debt/EBITDA 0.7x).

Guidance is the main focus of interest

The most important aspect of the report is the company's guidance for 2026. Ahead of the report, we estimate the company's revenue to grow by 7% to 119 MEUR this year, and adjusted EBITA to rise to 19.6 MEUR. We expect the growth to be mainly driven by international rail logistics. We estimate that the growth of the Swedish business will be supported by both a slight increase in freight car transport due to a moderate market recovery and, in particular, the ramp-up of Nurminen's new container train connection between Sweden and Italy in the first half of this year. We also expect slight relative growth in the Finnish businesses due to the gradual improvement in the economic situation, while we estimate North Rail's revenue to remain stable. By contrast, we estimate that the development in the Baltics will continue its downward trend year-on-year, reflecting the higher comparison figure in Q1'25. Due to this and an otherwise very strong Q1'25, we expect the company to return to revenue and earnings growth only from Q2'26 onwards.

In addition to the guidance, we are interested in comments on the market situation of the different businesses and particularly on the progress of international operations. Reflecting last year's profit distribution, we will also monitor any comments related to the M&A market. We assume that potential acquisitions will primarily focus on strengthening the company's international operations and, for example, increasing its foothold in Central and/or Southern European markets.