Posti Group Q1'26 preview: Digital transformation erodes earnings

Source: Inderes

 Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/28/2026 at 7:55 am EEST.

Posti will report its Q1 results on Wednesday at 8:00 am EEST. We expect the Group's revenue to have developed steadily and earnings to have declined due to the deepening digital transformation of the postal market. We believe that the company will reiterate the guidance issued in February. In our opinion, key themes in the report include changes in the postal market's regulatory communication, the progress of the new adjustment program, the indirect effects of the Middle East conflict on Posti, and the utilization rates and new sales status of the warehousing business. Our recently published Posti initiation of coverage report can be read here.

Steady top-line development

We expect Posti's Q1 revenue to have remained at the comparison period level of 354 MEUR. In our view, pressure on sales development is created by the accelerating decline in letter volumes in Postal Services, which is explained by the digital transition of official mail starting in Q2. We understand that the transition phase for official mail has already been reflected in Posti's volumes in Q1, and our assessment is that Posti's pricing (i.e. price increases) has not fully succeeded in responding to this accelerated transition. Therefore, we expect the segment's revenue decline to have continued steeply (9%) compared to historical trends (~3%). In eCommerce and Delivery Services, we expect parcel volumes to have continued strong growth (8%). We estimate that growth is concentrated in consumer-to-consumer (C2C) parcels, and due to their lower price point, the "average price" of Posti's parcels is likely to continue to decline. Thus, we estimate the segment's revenue to have grown slower than volumes, at approximately 6%. For Warehousing and Logistics Services, we expect new customers to have boosted segment growth (4%), supported by both Finland and Sweden.

We expect Group earnings to have declined

We expect Posti's adjusted EBIT to have decreased to 7.4 MEUR (Q1'25: 10.5 MEUR). This corresponds to a 2.1% margin, reflecting the seasonally sluggish first quarter of the year. We expect the accelerated digital transformation to have weakened the profitability of Postal Services due to a sharp decline in volume. For other businesses, we expect earnings development to have been positive. In eCommerce and Delivery Services, we believe positive earnings development is driven by volume growth and cost control. In Warehousing and Logistics Services, we estimate that key efficiency-enhancing factors included sales growth, increased utilization rates due to warehouse closures, and general cost control. Despite this, we forecast that the result for Warehousing and Logistics Services remained negative. We expect the expense items below EBIT to have been approximately at the level of the comparison period, meaning that a weaker operating result is directly reflected in the earnings per share. We expect Q1 adjusted EPS to have been EUR 0.06 (Q1'25: EUR 0.13e).

Guidance appears up-to-date

We expect Posti to reiterate its guidance, which indicates revenue of 1,400–1,500 MEUR (2025: 1,448 MEUR) and adjusted EBIT of 63–79 MEUR (2025: 69 MEUR). Despite our anticipated sluggish start to the year, we expect the efficiency of Postal Services to improve towards the end of the year, primarily driven by price increases. At the same time, we expect revenue growth in eCommerce and Delivery Services and Warehousing and Logistics Services to boost the segments' earnings. For these reasons, we still consider the guidance relevant, even though certain leading economic indicators have moved in the wrong direction due to the Middle East conflict. Based on the current earnings season, we estimate that the situation has not caused significant changes in the development of listed companies' fundamentals, but a prolonged situation could negatively impact the development of Posti's target markets. For this reason, we are monitoring the situation closely. It is noteworthy that recently increased fuel costs are passed on to Posti's customer prices almost in real-time through fuel surcharges, so the company should not face significant sudden cost pressure from these. In addition to the figures, we believe the key themes in the report are the progress of the digital transition of official communications and its impact on Postal Services, the steps of the renewal program extending to 2029, the effects of the Middle East conflict on Posti's end-demand and operational efficiency, and measures to mitigate losses in the warehousing business, such as sales promotion and increasing utilization rates.