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Analyst Comment

Remedy revealed at Xbox event that multiplayer project Condor is FBC: Firebreak

By Atte RiikolaAnalyst
Remedy Entertainment

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/8/2024 at 7:33 am EEST.

The trailer for FBC: Firebreak is available here. The game is expected to be released in 2025 and will be a three-player cooperative action multiplayer.

The first game self-published by Remedy

According to Remedy's press release, the game will be mid-priced (presumably about 30-40 euros) and the company’s first self-published game. The game will be released on PC for both Steam and the Epic Games Store, and on consoles for both Xbox Series S/X and PlayStation 5.

The game will be available on Microsoft's PC Game Pass and Game Pass Ultimate on the day of release (not yet known), as well as for Extra and Premium members of PlayStation Plus. In our previous update, we highlighted the collaboration with Sony and Microsoft, and we consider it positive.  In the current market environment, publishing new multiplayer projects is a risky business, and these B2B agreements can reduce the risks involved. FBC: Firebreak can now be made immediately available to a large number of players on these subscription services, Remedy will receive a certain compensation for these contracts (which could be substantial), and the game could potentially get off to a flying start in terms of player numbers without significant user acquisition investment.

In our forecasts, we had assumed that a potential partner for Condor would provide a development fee pot of 10 MEUR for Q4, with which this partner would have "bought in" to the project. Naturally, we will update our assumptions in connection with the Q3 results, and presumably the now-announced Microsoft/Sony collaboration will generate revenue next year.

At this point, the success of the game is mere guesswork

As Remedy's first multiplayer experiment, the success of FBC: Firebreak is currently the most uncertain of the company's game projects. The game will be updated and expanded with additional content after launch, which we expect will also form part of the basis for monetizing the game. The initial development budget for the game was around 25 MEUR, making the project significantly smaller than Remedy's traditional AAA game projects. This also means that expectations for the game's success are much more conservative at this point. Based on the trailer, we think the game has potential, but more accurate conclusions can only be drawn once the game is on the market.

Alan Wake 2's second expansion pack to be released on October 22

At the Xbox event, Remedy also announced that the Lake House expansion for Alan Wake 2 will be released on October 22. The trailer for the expansion is available here. On the same day, a physical version of Alan Wake 2 is released for consoles with both add-ons. Lake House looks to go well beyond the first Night Springs expansion, and we expect it, along with the release of the physical version, to support Alan Wake 2 sales for the rest of the year. With this uptick in sales, we expect Alan Wake 2 to start generating some decent royalty income for Remedy in Q4.

Remedy Entertainment is a game developer. Its operations are primarily focused on the development of action games, with a particular focus on 3D technology. Examples of games that the company has developed include several different versions of Alan Wake, Max Payne, and Control. Remedy also develops its own game engine and tooling technology that powers many of its games. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

Read more on company page

Key Estimate Figures2024-09-04

202324e25e
Revenue33.960.857.6
growth-%-22.2 %79.2 %-5.3 %
EBIT (adj.)-28.65.4-3.4
EBIT-% (adj.)-84.4 %8.8 %-5.8 %
EPS (adj.)-1.680.33-0.20
Dividend0.000.000.00
Dividend %
P/E (adj.)neg.50.1neg.
EV/EBITDAneg.23.1140.0

Forum discussions

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Hello to the thread. I’ve also been a long-time Remedy bear, but I took a big position on this last Friday for under 16e. Not investment advice...
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