Analyst Comment
Sanoma Q1'26 preview: Expectations are at the level of the comparison period despite year-on-year earnings growth
Summary
- Sanoma's Q1 revenue is estimated at 221 MEUR, matching the comparison period, with steady growth in Learning offset by a decline in Dutch distribution revenue.
- The adjusted EBIT for Q1 is projected at -19 MEUR, reflecting seasonal losses in the Learning segment, aligning with the comparison period and consensus forecasts.
- Sanoma's current year revenue guidance is 1.29-1.34 BEUR, with adjusted EBIT guidance of 205-225 MEUR; estimates are at the midpoint of this range.
- Consensus estimates for the year are slightly higher than Inderes' projections, potentially due to not accounting for recent developments, which may lead to upward pressure on estimates.
This content is generated by AI. You can give feedback on it in the Inderes forum.
Translation: Original published in Finnish on 05/05/2026 at 00:26 am EEST
| Estimates | Q1'25 | Q1'26 | Q1'26e | Q1'26e | Consensus | 2026e | |||
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Low | High | Inderes | ||
| Revenue | 221 | 221 | 221 | 214 | - | 227 | 1307 | ||
| EBIT (adj.) | -19 | -19 | -19 | -17 | - | -21 | 215 | ||
| EBIT | -31 | -29 | -29 | -30 | - | -27 | 177 | ||
| EPS (adj.) | -0.17 | -0.15 | -0.16 | -0.17 | - | -0.15 | 0.80 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | -0.1 % | -3.3% | - | 2.6% | 0.3 % | ||
| EBIT-% (adj.) | -8.5 % | -8.6 % | -8.4 % | -7.8% | - | -9.3% | 16.5 % | ||
Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus, 6 estimates)
Sanoma publishes its Q1 report on Thursday at around 8:30 am EEST. We estimate the company's revenue and operational result to have been in line with the comparison period. The company has guided for operational result growth for the current year, and with estimates at the midpoint of the guidance range, expectations are in line with the guidance.
We expect a steady trend in revenue
We estimate Sanoma's Q1 revenue to have been 221 MEUR, which is at the same level as the comparison period. We expect Learning's revenue to have developed steadily, with slight growth in several countries, and especially in Poland, being overshadowed by the contraction in Dutch distribution revenue. Our revenue estimate for Media Finland is also at the level of the comparison period. By income type, we expect the segment's advertising income to have decreased, in line with the sluggish market development. However, the slight contraction in advertising income, single-copy sales, and other income was offset by the sustained growth in subscription income, which remained at a good level in our estimates.
Operational result is in the red due to seasonality
Our estimate for Sanoma's adjusted EBIT in Q1 is -19 MEUR, reflecting the seasonally unprofitable operations of the Learning business and is at the level of the comparison period. Our estimate is also in line with the median consensus forecast. We expect Learning's operational loss to decrease slightly from the comparison period, reflecting the impact of efficiency measures taken over the past two years. At the same time, however, we estimate that preparations for this year's market growth have caused slight upward pressure on the cost structure. Our earnings estimate for Media Finland is again slightly below the comparison period, reflecting the usual increase in costs and the subdued development of advertising revenue. We expect the company's net financial expenses and tax rate to have developed steadily, while the impact on earnings from the hybrid loan redeemed in Q1 has been slightly lower than in the comparison period. Thus, our Q1 adjusted EPS estimate is EUR 0.15, meaning a slightly smaller loss than in the comparison period.
Our estimates are at the midpoint of the earnings guidance range
Consensus median estimates expect Sanoma's revenue to be 1,311 MEUR (Inderes: 1,307 MEUR) and its operational EBIT to be 217 MEUR (Inderes: 215 MEUR). Sanoma has guided that its current year revenue will be 1.29-1.34 BEUR and adjusted EBIT will be 205-225 MEUR. Thus, our current year estimates are firmly around the midpoint of the given earnings guidance range. In our assessment, the consensus estimates do not account for the latest developments, which creates slight upward pressure on our estimates even before the Q1 report. We will include the acquisition in our estimates in connection with the Q1'26 report.
Sanoma is an innovative and agile learning and media company with two business segments: Learning and Media Finland. Learning's educational products and services reach 25 million students in K-12 education in 12 European countries. Media Finland has Finland's leading multichannel media offering (digital and print newspapers, magazines, TV and streaming services, and radio and audio services), through which it reaches 97% of Finns every week, enabling effective marketing solutions for corporate clients. The company's operations have a positive impact on the lives of millions of people every day.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures12/04
| 2025 | 26e | 27e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,302.5 | 1,306.7 | 1,348.3 |
| growth-% | -3.1 % | 0.3 % | 3.2 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 154.9 | 187.0 | 198.2 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 11.9 % | 14.3 % | 14.7 % |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.57 | 0.81 | 0.86 |
| Dividend | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| Dividend % | 4.5 % | 4.9 % | 5.1 % |
| P/E (adj.) | 16.4 | 11.0 | 10.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 | 5.7 | 5.4 |
Forum discussions
