Translation: Original published in Finnish on 07/29/2026 at 09:10 am EEST

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus, 7 estimates)

Sanoma's Q2 earnings, published this morning, were approximately at the same level as the comparison period, thus falling short of estimates that anticipated slight earnings growth. In our preliminary assessment, this was mainly due to timing factors in the Learning business. However, the company reiterated its guidance for the current year, and we do not believe there is significant pressure to revise our or the consensus estimates, which are slightly above the midpoint of the earnings guidance range. You can follow Sanoma's Q2 earnings call, starting at 11.30 am EEST, via this link.

Revenue decreased slightly and contrary to expectations

Sanoma's Q2 revenue settled at 335 MEUR, which represents a slight decrease year-on-year and fell short of forecasts that anticipated stable development. Learning's revenue grew by 3% year-on-year, slightly exceeding our estimate (+1%). The segment's growth was mainly driven by the increase in learning material sales in the Netherlands and the development of digital platform sales in Poland. However, according to the company, a significant amount of Learning sales shifted to Q3 due to delays in curriculum reforms and decisions. Media Finland's revenue decreased by 7%, thus falling short of our estimate, which had anticipated a 2% decrease. This was due to lower-than-expected revenue from all revenue streams, but the largest undershoot came from the Other revenue line, which reflects the decline in sales of event and external printing services.

The operating result was at the level of the comparison period

Sanoma's adjusted EBIT for Q2 was 63 MEUR, which was clearly below our expectation of slight earnings growth. Segment-wise, Learning's operational margin was approximately at the comparison period's level, as increased sales and marketing costs preceding Q3's seasonally high peak season weighed on its earnings. Thus, Learning's adjusted EBIT was on par with the comparison period and below our estimate. Media Finland's operating result also settled at the comparison period's level, despite a larger-than-expected decrease in revenue. This was driven by significantly better profitability than we anticipated, which rose considerably from the comparison period due to a decrease in costs. There were no material deviations on the lower lines relative to our estimates, so Q2 adjusted EPS came in at EUR 0.23.

We suspect the need for estimate revisions will be minor

Sanoma reiterated its guidance for 2026, expecting revenue of 1.29-1.34 BEUR (2025: 1.3 BEUR) and adjusted EBIT of 205-225 MEUR (2025: 188 MEUR). Before the report, our and consensus estimates for revenue this year were around 1.32-1.33 BEUR, and the estimates for adjusted EBIT were 218-221 MEUR. The company also reiterated the underlying assumptions of its guidance, stating that the demand for learning materials is expected to grow, driven by curriculum reforms in certain operating countries. In addition, the company assumes the Finnish advertising market to be relatively stable. In our preliminary assessment, despite the Q2 earnings falling short of estimates, there is no significant pressure to revise the current year's earnings estimates, as we believe Learning will catch up on the earnings shortfall caused by Q2 delays later in the year. During the earnings release, we will seek more detailed information on the background factors of the delays and their impact on the rest of the year.