Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/28/2025 at 07:30 am EET

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus, 7 estimates)

Sanoma will publish its Q3 report on Thursday at around 8:30 am EET. We estimate the company's revenue to have decreased in both segments, but due to a slightly higher margin, our operational earnings estimate is only marginally below the comparison period. The consensus estimate for the current year is above the midpoint of the given earnings guidance range, and we expect Sanoma to revise its earnings guidance range upwards with the Q3 results, as it did last year.

The upper line of the estimates has been under pressure

We expect Sanoma' revenue to have decreased by good 4% in Q3 from the comparison period to 516 MEUR. In our estimates, Learning’s revenue has decreased by almost 5% from the comparison period. This reflects the relatively stable demand for learning materials in Learning's operating countries, but a decrease in revenue in the Netherlands due to the termination of poorly profitable distribution agreements, and a decrease in demand in Spain in line with the timing of curriculum reforms. We estimate Media Finland's revenue to have decreased by 4% from the comparison period, which particularly reflects our estimate of a contraction in advertising revenue. This is due to sluggish market development, in addition to the termination of one reseller agreement, which weighs significantly on advertising revenue.

Our operational earnings estimate is slightly below the comparison period

We expect Sanoma's Q3 operational EBIT excluding PPA amortizations to have been 168 MEUR, which, despite a better margin estimate than in the comparison period, does not quite reach the level of the comparison period. The drivers for the estimated margin improvement in Learning are slight benefits from the Solar efficiency program. However, we expect the full benefits of this major efficiency program only next year, when volume growth brings out the benefits of operational efficiency more clearly and the depreciation level decreases. Our profitability estimate for Media Finland is at the comparison period's level, supported by a slight revision in revenue distribution, which compensates for the margin pressure caused by the contraction in several revenue streams. Reflecting significantly smaller non-recurring items than in the comparison period, our reported earnings estimates are above the comparison period, but our adjusted earnings estimates are slightly below it, also reflecting the operational result.

We expect the guidance to be specified in the Q3 report

Consensus median estimates expect Sanoma's revenue to be 1,314 MEUR (Inderes: 1,315 MEUR) and operational EBIT excluding PPA to be 186 MEUR (Inderes: 186 MEUR) in the current year. Sanoma has guided that its current year revenue will be 1.28-1.32 BNEUR and operational EBIT excluding PPA amortizations will be 170-190 MEUR. Thus, the earnings estimates are around the top of the guidance range. Historically, Sanoma has been conservative in its guidance, and in recent years, guidance has occasionally been specified when there has been a better view of the highly seasonal earnings performance. We expect the company to specify its current year's earnings guidance in the Q3 report, as it did last year, and an update of the earnings range to 180-190 MEUR would be quite well in line with estimates.