Sanoma will host Capital Markets Day next Tuesday

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/21/2025 at 7:00 am EET.

At the Capital Markets Day (CMD), our focus will be on the company's growth outlook and targets for 2026–2030, as well as any comments on capital allocation plans. We do not expect any fundamental changes to the segment-specific financial targets, although it may be timely to specify the profitability target for Learning.

Focus shifts to growth

Sanoma is organizing a CMD next Tuesday, November 25, where it will provide more details on its plans and targets for the 2026–2030 strategy period. We believe that the focus will be more on growth towards the end of the decade than in the recent past, as the company's financial position has strengthened and the significant Solar efficiency program in the Learning segment has largely been completed. At the group-level, Sanoma already has a target of over 2 billion in revenue by 2030, with over 75% of revenue coming from Learning. Growth prospects in the educational materials market strengthen the conditions for growth as Learning's major operating countries, particularly Poland and Spain, are expected to grow in 2026–2027. Several acquisitions will be necessary to achieve the target, and with a strengthened balance sheet, we believe the company will be more active in M&A during the rest of the decade than in the recent past.

Balance sheet accumulates leeway for achieving strategic goals 

As of the end of Q3’25, Sanoma's net debt stood at 536 MEUR, or 2x its LTM-adjusted EBITDA, whereas the company's target is below 3x. Considering this target level, the company already has leeway in terms of capital allocation (LTM-adjusted EBITDA 263 MEUR). It should be noted that the company has a 150 MEUR hybrid bond maturing next spring, which currently decreases net debt, and whose refinancing, presumably with interest-bearing debt, will increase net debt.  Despite this, we estimate that earnings growth and the cash flow outlook for the coming years will enable Learning to achieve its growth target of roughly doubling in size by 2030. However, the final outcome concerning the target depends on the valuation levels of probable acquisitions and targets in the acquisition pipeline, on which we believe Sanoma will shed light at the Capital Markets Day, along with its own estimated acquisition capacity (MEUR). Although the focus of capital allocation will likely shift more toward acquisitions in the future than in the recent past, we believe the company will maintain its dividend policy of growing dividends by 40–60% of annual free cash flow.

We expect segment-specific targets to remain broadly unchanged

Sanoma has separate long-term financial targets for both the Learning and Media Finland segments. In Learning, it targets 2–5% comparable revenue growth and an operational EBIT-% of over 23%, excluding PPA (2024: 19.2%). According to Sanoma, Learning will achieve its profitability targets next year, helped by the Solar efficiency program implemented in recent years and market growth, which underscores the efficiency gains achieved through Solar. Learning's revenue structure is being reshaped by discontinuing certain low-profitability contracts, and the company stated in its Q3’25 report that Learning's profitability would rise "clearly" above 23% next year as a result. While the current target aligns with this, we also consider it possible that the company will refine the target due to the realized efficiency gains and changes in the revenue structure. Our forecasts for 2026–2028 average 24.2%, and we expect these expectations to be reinforced at the Capital Markets Day. Thus, at CMD, the spotlight will be on Learning's profitability potential in the coming years and how the company's own targets align with consensus estimates for the next few years (operational EBIT-% excluding PPA 2026e: 24% and 2027e: 24.5%).

In Media Finland, Sanoma targets +/- 2% comparable revenue growth and 12–14% operational EBIT, excluding PPA. The segment's profitability is clearly below the target level (2024: operational EBIT-% excluding PPA 8.2% and 2025e: 8.6%), and our forecasts for the coming years are also below the target level (2026-2028e average 9.1%). We will therefore follow with particular interest the measures the company takes to achieve a significant improvement in Media Finland's profitability.