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fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
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fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
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fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
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fragment Reactions on Content {
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fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
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fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
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strikes-are-hitting-the-meat-industry-at-a-challenging-time

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Analyst

Pauli Lohi

HKFoods operates in the food industry. The group includes several subsidiaries with business activities in the sale, marketing and production of meat products from pork, beef and poultry. The group operates the entire value chain, from slaughtering, cutting to processing and resale of the raw materials. HKFoods has the largest operations in the Nordic market. The head office is located in Turku.

That bottom-up simulation is one option, and you’ve arrived at the same EPS of 0.2 as in OP’s analysis. OP, however, has assumed an improvement in operating profit to a level of 40m, and taxes are rising to 5m (was 4m), so if there were an additional tax benefit of 2-3m on top of the increase in operating profit, the EPS would rise even more. The biggest question mark is the development of margin levels—is there still a chance to improve, and what levels can the company defend in the future now that the major turnaround has been completed? Monitoring the cash position is a good point; I personally believe the company will pay off the 90m bond this year with some combination of a new bond/bank loan and possibly use cash to reduce the debt. Debt amount maybe -15m on an annual basis? And the next cash accumulation for the redemption of the hybrid loan. The dividend and potential extra dividend are approx. 13.5m – whether that is too much relative to cash and debt, each investor should decide for themselves. And regarding the valuation of such a low-growth defensive company. P/E or EV/EBIT are decent metrics for what the company’s maximum value can be at any given time. You can crunch numbers endlessly, but the current share price of 1.82 and this year’s EPS of 0.2 do not include any growth assumption (PVGO); it is even negative. A DCF model can easily be made to show a value of 3 EUR if you assume that margin levels hold. The DCF currently results in a value of 2 EUR only if you dial down the residual margin level significantly. Not very useful to run those numbers for a company like this. In my opinion, the dividend yield % represents a floor for the company’s valuation if the market believes that the dividend level is permanent and perhaps slowly but surely growing. Thus, the floor could be 5% in a “normal situation”, 6% if uncertainty increases, and 4% or below if performance is good for several years in a row and confidence is thus high.

The current year could also be evaluated by taking the 2025 operating profit as a starting level and seeing what could happen in the income statement in 2026. Of course, it’s not certain that the same absolute operating profit will be achieved in 2026, but the future always involves more or less uncertainty. 0.20 euros / share means a net profit of about 18 million euros. The 2025 profit before taxes is 18.7 million, and among the costs following that in 2025, a larger item was the write-down of discontinued operations, which I understand should no longer occur at all. Tax expenses in 2025 were 4.5 million. Regarding 2026, not much is known about taxes other than my own estimate that there will be a credit of the 2.92 million euros I calculated earlier (assuming HK can fully utilize previous losses), but the final amount of tax cannot, of course, be known yet, as the tax credit coming through losses is then deducted from the accrued taxes. So, if the same operating result were achieved in 2026 as in 2025, and financing costs were 2.4 million lower through the renewed hybrid, the taxable income would be 21.1 million. From that, only taxes would then be deducted. Viewed this way, an earnings per share of 0.20 could already be achieved in 2026 if taxes are 3 million or less. But this is, of course, based on assumptions that the business otherwise performs at least as well as in 2025, and then financing costs decrease by those 2.4 million. Regarding financing, I am following the cash position with interest. If the aim is to systematically accumulate it, my interpretation leans heavily toward the idea that they aim to get rid of that 90 million bond to as large an extent as possible with the cash accumulated before redemption or the end of the term. The reality regarding the cash position, however, is likely that it cannot be accumulated every quarter, as I understand that goods must be produced for inventory for the seasons.

A 30c EPS for HK is perhaps a few years away, not now, but by then the track record will either have been established or it won’t. By then, the amount of debt will have decreased; that is also the company’s goal. The company will not distribute the entire profit; instead, a portion of it will be used for debt repayment—this is included in both the forecasts made for the company and in the company’s strategy. Earnings fluctuate cyclically? Here I completely disagree; HK is a defensive company that has now improved its earnings for 12 (?) consecutive quarters in Europe’s worst operating environment, namely the Finnish market, in a country with record unemployment. Of course, the national economy could be even worse, but HK is still a defensive company. Margins are thin and that is reflected in the valuation; P/S is around 0.16. Due to its non-cyclicality and defensive nature, a 5% dividend yield could be quite a relevant valuation. Atria is currently at 4.2%, and for the European industry leader Cranswick, the dividend yield is 2% and the P/E is 20. Its operating profit margin is about 7%. The share price could well stay around two euros in the short term (<1 yr); there are so many different factors involved besides the company’s own performance that it is pointless to predict it. Over a timeframe of a few years, the company has the potential to become a defensive dividend machine.

If EPS is €0.30 Dividend scenario: 50 % payout → €0.15 5 % yield requirement → €3.00 Mathematically perfectly consistent. But… The food industry doesn’t usually get a 5 % dividend yield requirement if:  debt is high margins are thin earnings fluctuate cyclically  In that case, the market may price it with a 6–7 % yield requirement → share price €2.1–2.5. So, €3 requires:  a clear reduction in debt risk stabilization of earnings a credible track record for 2–3 years  The above is a partial quote from an AI analysis. Although HKFoods has been able to improve its performance, a “limit” is reached somewhere. That debt and its servicing are encountered in almost every analysis, including those made by the “machine.” The results definitely need to improve quite a bit so that funds remain for debt repayment while “generous” dividends are paid at the same time. My own guess is that the rise will stall around this two-euro stage. There, HKFoods can develop its operations and pay off debts. And most importantly, react to potential changes in consumer habits.

Analysts’ price targets rose by approx. 10%, but at the same time, recommendations dropped from the buy level. It’s understandable; perhaps a sufficient target for 2026 is for the share price to head towards 2, as that price can be justified by EV/EBIT or P/E metrics and HK should have a discount of about 10% compared to peers. Because of the debt. In the market this year, there will certainly also be a need for profit-taking by those who got in at prices <1 EUR and, on the other hand, by those who are now reaching break-even after a long wilderness period – “never again.” And funds and institutions will likely stay away. However, HK still looks cheap. The discount to peers may disappear as financing costs decrease, first when the bond (Jvk) maturing in 2027 is rolled over or replaced with bank loans, whereby the interest on 90m changes from 10 → 5-6%. This would mean annual savings of at least 3m. And then when the hybrid is paid off in 2028, this will save at least 1m, even if part of it is paid with other debt financing. Financing costs from the aforementioned will drop by 4-6m/year. Looking a few years ahead, when the company’s revenue exceeds 1.1 billion, assuming the operating profit is 4% for the full year, financing costs are 6m, the hybrid is gone, and assuming a corporate tax rate of 18%, the EPS is approx. 30c/share. Half of this is paid out as a dividend, and if, for example, a 5% dividend yield is the valuation basis, then the base case price for the share is 3 EUR. The biggest question mark is the operating profit %; it’s not worth putting the company’s 5% target into the calculator, but it’s good that the target exists to keep eyes firmly on the ball, and one could assume that a 4% level is not satisfactory, making it a viable base case assumption. HK’s investments, or lack thereof, have been criticized; now it seems that since depreciation equals investments, over 30m/year remains for investments. Is that enough? I don’t know. Probably and hopefully, the current management won’t start making any major adventure investments; those have been bitterly experienced by the company. Organic growth is no more than 2-3%/year, but with good operational execution, HK has the potential even with that growth to be what it’s supposed to be – a defensive dividend machine.

Pauli has written a new analysis of HKFoods following the company’s Q4 results  The streak of earnings improvements from recent years continued in Q4, with earnings and cash flow exceeding our forecasts. We see the company as well-positioned to continue improving its performance in the current year as well. Furthermore, the company will consider options for refinancing its current expensive bond, which is likely to significantly lower financing costs starting next year. Despite the recent rise in the share price, we still view the valuation as quite attractive.                   Inderes              HKFoods Q4'25: Hyvä tuloskehitys välittyy vivulla arvostukseen - Inderes    Toimintaympäristö ja oma tekeminen tukevat tuloskasvua vuonna 2026.

Apparently, there was a reading comprehension error regarding that first paragraph. I indeed interpreted it as if that 17.7 million was entirely from losses, and the rest then from deferred depreciation and non-deductible interest expenses, but of course, that’s not how it is. Well, I had to read more of that Note 5, and the last paragraph has a breakdown of the expiration of losses: “Tax losses from Finnish operations expire as follows: 3.0 million euros in 2028, 10.0 million euros in 2029, and 1.6 million euros in 2031.” In total, those would be 14.6 million. But those seem to be indeed deductible losses, meaning they can be used to reduce taxable income. Consequently, the tax benefit would be, for example, with a 20% tax rate: 0.2 * 14.6 million = 2.92 million.

HKFoods

Atria is a food group. The group includes several players, the better known of which include Sibylla, Lithells and Ridderheims. The subsidiaries' operations include the production of liver pâté, meat and chicken products, and various finished products. The operations are conducted on a global level, mainly concentrated in the Nordic countries, the Baltics and Russia. The company was founded in 1903 and has its headquarters in Seinäjoki.

Here are Pauli’s comments regarding Atria’s acquisition of 25 percent of the Swedish convenience food company Cookin Food AB.  Atria announced that it has acquired a quarter of the Swedish convenience food company Cookin Food AB, which produces items such as salads and sandwiches for retail takeaway counters. The company’s strategy emphasizes growth particularly in convenience food and poultry, so in that respect, we see the transaction as logical. The scale of the acquisition is small and will not have a significant impact on forecasts, at least in the short term.                   Inderes              Atria: Jalkaa oven väliin ruotsalaiseen valmisruokayhtiöön - Inderes    Ostokohde on pieni, eikä kaupalla ole merkittävää vaikutusta ennusteisiimme.

@henrielo has been writing about Atria.   The market picked up clearly from the start-of-the-year levels in both Finland and Sweden. Development in Estonia and Denmark was quite steady throughout the year compared to the previous year, at about two percent in Estonia and slightly above zero in Denmark. The Gooh! acquisition in 2024 has hit the mark, as market growth in fresh ready meals in Sweden was over eight percent last year. In Sweden, the fresh poultry market grew by as much as 15 percent in retail.  Subheadings:  Significant pickup in the market Net sales in Sweden approaching 400 million euros Management in Finland satisfied A year of investment decisions Exports are strong in Denmark – Work rhythm restored in Estonia Strong results and balance sheet enable a growing dividend New strategy already visible  Note The author owns shares in Atria.  IR-seuranta is a channel for SalkunRakentaja and Sijoittaja.fi’s corporate partners for background and analytical articles as well as other interesting investor information. The article is part of a commercial partnership with the company. The article does not contain investment recommendations.                   SalkunRakentaja – 17 Feb 26              Atria kasvaa eniten Ruotsissa – uusi strategia näkyy jo    Elintarvikeyhtiö Atria kipusi liikevaihto- ja tulosennätykseen vuonna 2025. Atria Ruotsi lähes tuplasi liikevoiton.

Analysis after yesterday’s results. Target price 19 and Accumulate.                   Inderes              Atria Q4'25: Takaisin ruokarekan kyytiin - Inderes    Kysynnän piristyminen tukee näkymiä alkaneelle vuodelle.

Atria’s CEO Kai Gyllström was in good spirits in Pauli’s interview.                    Inderes              Atria Q4'25: Nousujohteinen ohjeistus - Inderes    Aika: 12.02.2026 klo 13.48 Atrian liikevaihto kasvoi selvästi Suomessa ja Ruotsissa. Hallitus ehdottaa vuodelta 2025 maksettavaksi 0,75 euron osinkoa. Atria ohjeistaa konsernin oikaistun liikevoiton olevan vuonna 2026 edellisvuotta korkeampi.                             Topics: 00:00 Introduction  00:11 Atria’s net sales grew by 7%  00:55 Consumer behavior  01:57 Increased cost level  03:31 Sweden  04:27 Exports to China  05:17 Guidance

Here are Pauli’s quick comments on this morning’s result.  Atria reported its Q4 earnings report this morning. Revenue grew clearly stronger than expected in Finland and Sweden, but the adjusted result was in line with forecasts and improved only slightly from the comparison period. However, the company guides for comparable operating profit to grow in 2026, which is a positive signal after the cautious guidance of recent years. We view the report as a whole in a positive light.                   Inderes              Atria Q4’25 -pikakommentti: Nousujohteiset näkymät - Inderes    Vahva liikevaihdon kasvu ja nousujohteinen tulosohjeistus lievittävät huolia tuloskasvun hyytymisestä.

Good result, better mood. Above Inderes’ forecast on all lines.                   Inderes              Atria Oyj:n tilinpäätöstiedote 1.1.-31.12.2025 - Inderes    Atria Oyj, tilinpäätöstiedote, pörssitiedote 12.2.2026, klo 8.00 ATRIA OYJ:N TILINPÄÄTÖSTIEDOTE 1.1. - 31.12.2025Atrialla jälleen vahva vuosi - liikevaihto ja oikaistu liikevoitto kasvoivat ...

Here is Pauli’s pre-earnings report on Atria, which will publish its financial statement bulletin on Thursday, February 12th.  Atria will report its 2025 financial statement bulletin on Thursday, February 12th at around 8:00 AM. We expect Q4 to have proceeded in a fairly stable manner. We consider it possible that the company will enter 2026 with cautious guidance, as we do not see significant earnings growth drivers in the short term, considering, among other things, the weak domestic consumer confidence. The company is working on significant strategic investments for the years 2026-27, the benefits of which we believe will be weighted towards later years. We lower our recommendation to Reduce (prev. Accumulate) and raise the target price to EUR 16.0 (prev. EUR 15.5).                   Inderes              Atria Q4'25 -ennakko: Lyhyen aikavälin tuloskehitys voi jäädä laimeaksi -...    Kotimaan kysyntä on varovaista ja strategisten investointien potentiaali realisoituu myöhemmin.

Atria

Apetit operates in the food industry. The company is a retailer of food products. The product range consists mainly of plant-based food solutions, vegetable products, frozen meals and fish and seafood. The largest operations are in the Nordic market. The company was originally founded in 1950 and has its headquarters in Helsinki.

Pauli has provided his comments on how Apetit is trimming its less profitable operations. Apetit announced on Thursday that it is considering closing its frozen pizza factory in Pudasjärvi and exploring alternative models, such as contract manufacturing, for the production of frozen pizzas. We consider the winding down of low-profitability production to be a likely sensible move, as Apetit’s market share in frozen pizzas is low and the prerequisites for competitiveness are therefore weak. Discontinuing the business could have a decreasing impact on the company’s revenue but, on the other hand, a strengthening effect on profitability. At the same time, trimming operations would support investment capacity in growth areas at the core of the strategy. Furthermore, Sucros, an associate company 20% owned by Apetit, is also planning to discontinue cube and icing sugar production, among other things, to improve profitability.                   Inderes              Apetit: Heikosti kannattavia toimintoja ollaan karsimassa - Inderes    Pizzatuotanto on irrallinen osa suhteessa yhtiön muihin teollisiin operaatioihin.

Same here. I have always chosen Apetit products for my frozen pizzas, supporting both my own investment and employment in Pudasjärvi. The competition in these frozen pizzas just seems to be so ruthless. Based on the empirical research I’ve done, when Apetit launched new pizzas a few years ago, they got plenty of shelf space in the freezer sections of stores. Lately, competitors have managed to seize that shelf space. In some small Alepa stores, only one Apetit pizza version is visible. Sad news. I would have rather ditched the sugar or oil business.

I would have supported them more often myself, but since they got rid of the single-pizza packs back in the day, I’ve done so less frequently. A frozen pizza doesn’t fit in the freezer compartment. They were good, though.

Such a shame, I just bought some pizzas this morning. I’m definitely going to miss them; better go grab a few packs for the freezer while I still can​

I’ll miss the pizzas, the best frozen pizzas  If it goes to contract manufacturing, hopefully the recipes will stay as they are

Stock Exchange Release  26.02.2026 at 13:15 Inside Information: Apetit considers alternative models for frozen pizza production and the closure of the Pudasjärvi frozen pizza factory Apetit is considering alternative production sites and models for its frozen pizza production in Finland and is initiating change negotiations covering the entire personnel of the Pudasjärvi frozen pizza factory. Alternative production sites and models, including contract manufacturing, are being considered for the production of Apetit’s Pudasjärvi frozen pizza factory. If production were to be carried out through alternative arrangements, operations at the Pudasjärvi frozen pizza factory would cease and the factory would be closed. The Pudasjärvi frozen pizza factory employs 21 permanent staff. Decisions regarding the organization of production will be made after the conclusion of the change negotiations. Currently, all of Apetit’s frozen pizzas are manufactured at the factory. Apetit made an investment of approximately EUR 2 million in the frozen pizza factory, completed in 2022, but the factory’s investment needs for renovations and replacement investments in production equipment remain significant and clearly exceed the amount of previous investments. Sales of Apetit’s frozen pizzas have not met targets following the investment and the relaunch of the pizzas. Change negotiations will be initiated in week 11.  As a shareholder, I have tried to support the demand for these, but it’s not enough.

Here are Pauli’s comments regarding yesterday’s strategy event organized by Apetit  Apetit held a briefing on Tuesday regarding its new strategy. The strategy is a step in a more growth-oriented direction than before and includes several growth projects involving significant financial investments as well as some uncertainty regarding their success. We consider the acquisition of the Swedish pea producer Foodhills to be the most significant change in the strategy, and in our view, the briefing provided credible guidelines for strengthening the profitability of the acquired entity. In oilseed products, the company is planning investments aimed at increasing conventional production as well as accelerating the commercialization of the new rapeseed-based BlackGrain ingredient. From an investment case perspective, we see the growth projects weighing on the share price until visibility into the success of the projects improves or earnings growth lowers the company’s elevated earnings-based valuation multiples. The briefing and its presentations can be viewed at this link.                   Inderes              Apetit: Strategiatilaisuus tarjosi ajureita Foodhillsin tuloskäänteelle -...    Uusi strategia on kasvuhakuinen ja samalla myös aiempaa riskisempi.

Apetit

The approaching Easter is an important sales season, especially for the meat industry, and delivery problems may slightly weaken the development of sales and earnings in Q2.

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 04/07/2025 at 08:41 am EEST
Of the companies in our coverage, the strike in the meat and convenience food industry starting on Tuesday will affect the operations of Atria, HKFoods and Apetit. We believe the three-day strike will cause challenges, especially for the meat industry, where production disruptions are more difficult to prepare for than in Apetit&apos;s frozen vegetable production.
The approaching Easter is an important sales season, especially for the meat industry, and delivery problems may slightly weaken the development of sales and earnings in Q2. In addition, the industry is typically preparing to switch to summer assortments at this point, which strikes and production shutdowns may affect. However, the strikes have no impact on the long-term performance of the companies.
The meat and convenience food industry strike concerns a bakery industry dispute over working hours and a fear that a similar chance for longer working hours would be introduced in other food production industries in the future. As we understand it, an agreement has already been reached on pay increases, and they will remain at 2-3% (per year), which means that wage inflation remains roughly at the same level as a year ago.

Strikes are hitting the meat industry at a challenging time

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