Source: Inderes & Vara Research, 2 analysts (consensus)

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/3/2026 at 8:10 am EET.

Suominen will publish its Q3 report on Thursday, November 5, and you can follow the company's earnings release here at 10:30 am EET. We expect revenue to have grown, driven by a stronger dollar and price increases. We estimate that profitability increased from the comparison period and slightly from the Q2 level. We believe the company will achieve the guided earnings improvement in terms of full-year adj. EBITDA, even though rising raw material costs will weigh on Q4 once again. However, in our forecasts, the operating result will remain negative this year for the fifth year in a row. In the report, in addition to operational performance, we will monitor particularly the upcoming bond refinancing.

Revenue supported from multiple directions

We expect Suominen's Q3 revenue to have increased by ~10% from the comparison period and to have settled at 110 MEUR (Q3'25: 100 MEUR). The comparison period was weak, as it was overshadowed by Suominen's production issues in North America. Compared to this, we estimate that the company has been able to increase its revenue, supported by volumes, price increases following raw material developments, and a slightly stronger USD.

Profitability continues to lag at a weak level

We forecast Suominen's adjusted EBITDA to be 4.6 MEUR in Q3 (Q3'25: 3.4 MEUR). We expect the earnings to be supported by production having returned to a more normal level compared to the comparison period and by increased volumes. The company's efficiency measures are also beginning to impact earnings. At the same time, the company's product portfolio has weakened to some extent, as it has had to replace lost sales with lower-margin volumes. According to our forecasts, the company's EBIT is around zero and net income is in the red, so the earnings level is still far from satisfactory. The company's earnings already suffered from rising raw material costs in Q2, but we estimate that Suominen was able to compensate for the cost increases of the spring and summer through price increases. However, the sharp rise in oil prices in September is once again driving raw material costs higher, creating a headwind for profitability, especially toward the end of the year.

Guidance likely to be reiterated, bond refinancing nears

Suominen has provided guidance indicating that, in 2026, comparable EBITDA will improve from 2025 (12.6 MEUR). Our forecast is ~15 MEUR, so we believe the company will reiterate its guidance and achieve it. However, the level is weak and roughly the same where the company has already been for five years. Therefore, the benefits of the efficiency program must be significantly reflected in earnings improvement going forward. Our estimates also expect earnings growth to continue and accelerate in 2027–2028.

In addition to the operational earnings trend and the passing on of cost inflation, we will monitor management's comments on the company's financial situation particularly closely in the report. In June 2027, Suominen has a total of 50 MEUR in bonds maturing, which carries a very favorable interest rate (1.5%). We estimate that the company will seek to secure the refinancing of the loan later this year or at the latest immediately after the Q4 report early next year. Although the rights issue carried out in the summer strengthened the balance sheet, the company's indebtedness remains quite high, which makes the terms of the refinancing an interesting point to watch. Regardless of the form of financing, it is clear that the company's financing costs will rise significantly as a result of the refinancing, which will weigh on earnings per share in the coming years.