Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/10/2026 at 8:37 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

Talenom will publish its Q2 report on Thursday, August 13. The company's earnings release can be followed here at 10:00 am EEST. We expect the company's revenue to have grown, supported by strong performance in Spain but with earnings slightly below the comparison period due to increased costs in Finland and burdens related to growth in Spain. We are particularly interested in the stabilization of the company's Swedish operations and the development of profitability in Spain because their success is critical to the group's overall picture. Additionally, we are specifically monitoring cash flows, which we can now observe for the entire H1.

Growth in Spain offsets decline in Sweden

We expect Talenom's Q2 revenue to have grown by just over 4% to a total of 31.0 MEUR. In Finland, we forecast revenue to have grown by 3% to 19.0 MEUR (Q2'25: 18.5 MEUR), estimating that the company has grown organically despite challenging market conditions and a continued high number of bankruptcies. We would like to point out that the pickup in Finland’s economic growth is reflected in the accounting firm market only after a delay of about six months. Thus, the effects of the now-improved economic growth would likely be visible to Talenom at the beginning of next year. In Sweden, we forecast a continued decline in revenue to 5.9 MEUR (Q2'25: 6.5 MEUR) due to the lingering effects of previous customer attrition, but we expect management to comment on the stabilization of the situation. In Spain, we expect very strong growth of nearly 30% to continue, reaching 6.1 MEUR (Q2'25: 4.7 MEUR), supported not only by moderate organic growth but also by acquisitions made at the turn of the year and in the spring. In fact, according to our forecasts, Spain's revenue will exceed Sweden's level for the first time in Q2. In both Sweden and Spain, we estimate that Q2 was clearly the best quarter of the year on a seasonal basis.

Profitability under slight pressure due to growth investments and listing expenses

We estimate that adjusted EBIT was 2.6 MEUR in Q2, slightly down from the comparison period. We expect EBIT for the Finnish business to have declined to 2.7 MEUR (Q2’ 25: 2.9 MEUR). According to our estimates, this decrease is due to higher administrative costs resulting from the independent stock exchange listing, as well as investments in sales and marketing. In Sweden, we expect the operating loss to have remained at the comparison period's level of -0.4 MEUR, as significant adjustment measures offset the decrease in revenue. Despite the minor significance of the Swedish business in terms of valuation, we consider the profitability trend in Sweden to be one of the most important figures in the report – in our view, the turnaround in profitability is important for Talenom’s risk profile due to the significant goodwill associated with its Swedish operations. In Spain, we estimate that EBIT remained at the level of the comparison period, 0.3 MEUR. Spanish profitability is burdened by acquisition integration costs and increased software costs due to the demerger. We are paying particular attention to cost management in Spain as the scale of the business grows rapidly. Alongside the earnings figures, we will closely monitor cash flow development in H1, and we expect it to have been strong relative to earnings before acquisitions. We made no estimate changes in connection with the earnings preview.

Guidance reiteration expected, eyes on the turnaround in Sweden

We believe Talenom will reiterate its 2026 guidance, in which revenue is expected to be 110-120 MEUR and comparable EBITDA 18-22 MEUR. Our own estimates are currently 113 MEUR for revenue and around 20 MEUR for comparable EBITDA in 2026. While revenue development is affected by potential acquisitions, our estimate does not include any new acquisitions during the current year. Talenom has estimated stable market development in its operating countries this year, but we find Finland's recent growth figures encouraging for next year. At the same time, it is worth noting that the situation in the Finnish SME sector remains challenging.

In the report, we will pay particular attention to the progress of the Swedish business turnaround. The company aims to achieve positive EBITDA in Sweden this year, and we consider halting the decline in revenue and improving profitability critical to reducing goodwill risks on the balance sheet. In Spain, we are monitoring cost development and the success of integrations because rapid growth requires the ability to build sustainable profitability. We are also monitoring cash flow after the Easor demerger. With lighter software investments, cash flow should exceed reported earnings, which is essential for managing the company's high financial leverage.