contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  createdAt
  changedAt
  isPremium
  authors {
    __typename
    name
    pageUrl
    id
  }
  companies {
    name
    id
  }
  tags {
    name
    id
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
      researchContentUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


modular-finance-ir-consensus-sampo-consensus-estimates-q1-2026

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

changedAt

Sampo is a Nordic property and casualty insurer operating also in the UK and in the Baltics. In the Nordics, Sampo provides insurance services across all countries, customer segments and products. In the UK, the company offers motor and home insurance for private individuals. The Group is made up of If P&C, Topdanmark, Hastings, and the parent company Sampo plc. Sampo was founded in 1909 and it is headquartered in Helsinki, Finland.

Sauli’s preview mentality was correct, but the actual figures hit different spots than assumed in the preview. Underwriting €368M vs Inderes’ 327 and consensus of 341.  Combined ratio 84.4% vs preview of 85.6%.  Insurance service result €2,363M when preview was 2,273, growth of 8%.  Operational EPS +19% RoEOF 32.5%.  This is not “in line with expectations” but a clear beat that exceeds the upper end of the consensus range. An exceptionally strong operational performance relative to expectations, if investment returns weren’t overshadowing it. The loss of -€46M obviously looks ugly. But NOBA -€235M and the fixed income portfolio -€156M are changes in market value, not a weakening of the business. Only €482M of NOBA remains and Sampo intends to sell more, meaning this volatility is on its way out. Buyback program €350M vs anticipated €150M. So more than double, and Sampo is clearly committed to a line of high capital distribution. The lower end of the guidance was raised (€1,525–1,625M underwriting) already in the first quarter of the year, which is an exceptionally strong message from management regarding the performance for the rest of the year. The Danish court case fits within existing reserves and no separate provision will be made for Q2. Topdanmark synergies are being heavily front-loaded: 2026 raised from 55 → €105M, 2027 from 87 → €125M — about €50M of additional potential for the current year from synergies alone, and ahead of schedule at that. Private customers in the Nordics pulled through with the old formula again: growth +5.7%, the segment’s expense ratio improved to 21.4%, and claims were kept in check. Norway +13%, driven by price increases. Hastings’ combined ratio of 90.3% left me wondering, but the number of contracts +13% YoY provides a good option when pricing eventually turns. The moat as a whole strengthened in light of this report — scale (Topdanmark synergies ahead of schedule), pricing power (Nordics), and conservative reserving practices. Personally, I’m holding onto my shares tightly and will add if the price drops. Sampo is now a purer insurance company than ever, the moat is strengthening, capital is being returned to owners at a ~5% annual rate, and on top of that comes organic 7–10% EPS growth. This report is one of the best in a long time. My target price is around €9.85. The reasoning: the guidance raise + front-loading of synergies will push op. EPS for 2026 above the previous Inderes estimate of €0.52, so a P/E of ~18x fits the quality and provides a healthy update. This gives about 5–10% price return potential + ~5% cash yield when capital returns are taken into account. In a compounder story, this is exactly what you pay for. Uncertainty is brought by the final cost impact of the Danish court decision, and although Sampo’s current assessment is that reserves cover it, clarifying the state’s distribution of liability may take time and bring noise in either direction in the interim. The fluctuation in investment returns is exactly what Sauli rightly warned about. The operational core is in diamond condition, guidance is rising, buybacks are doubling compared to the preview, and synergies are coming in ahead of schedule. If someone is selling today, I’m happy to put my hand under it.

One must remember here that mainstream media has for a long time often reported on results only in relation to previous ones, rather than in relation to expectations. This was the case during Nokia’s golden era and remains so today. You have to read the financial media for information on consensus and expectations. So yeah, it did collapse, but the expectation was that it would have collapsed even more.

This beat expectations across the board! You can ignore the media headlines about a “collapse.” The consensus was also quite off the mark, as some forgot to account for the Noba write-down, and the miss versus consensus is due to this. Operationally, a very strong performance.                    Inderes – 6 May 26              Sampo Q1'26 -pikakommentti: Operatiivisesti selkeä tulosylitys - Inderes    Operatiivisesti alkuvuosi sujui erinomaisesti ja yhtiö tarkisti ohjeistustaan ylöspäin.

OP Pohjola’s operating profit fell by more than 60 percent in the early part of the year | News in brief | Yle Others are also reporting a similar decline in investment income for Q1. This is because the stock market bottoms conveniently settled right around the last day of Q1, and assets are apparently recorded in the quarterly results according to the last day of the period(?) Just add more to your portfolio if it crashes; Q2 will conversely show increased investment income. NOTE: This is not investment advice.

Yle Uutiset – 6 May 26              Sammon tulos romahti    Uutiset nopeasti ja luotettavasti.                             According to Yle news, Sampo’s profit collapsed.

I would be very surprised if it doesn’t go up today. Even the guidance was raised.

Sauli blessed our view​ Share price up today?                   Inderes – 6 May 26              Sampo Q1'26 -pikakommentti: Operatiivisesti selkeä tulosylitys - Inderes    Operatiivisesti alkuvuosi sujui erinomaisesti ja yhtiö tarkisti ohjeistustaan ylöspäin.

Sampo

Estimates compiled by Modular Finance on behalf of Sampo.Number of contributors: 17 (all of which have been updated or confirmed before the report)KPI (MEUR, unless otherwise specified)Q1 2026EInsuran...

<div class="mfn-body"><p>Estimates compiled by Modular Finance on behalf of Sampo.</p><p>Number of contributors: 17 (all of which have been updated or confirmed before the report)</p><table class="mfn-w-set"><tbody><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="bottom" width="365.0px" class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid"><strong>KPI (MEUR, unless otherwise specified)</strong></td><td align="right" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="bottom" width="111.0px" class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid"><strong>Q1 2026E</strong></td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="bottom" width="365.0px" class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid">Insurance revenue, net (incl. brokerage)</td><td align="right" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="bottom" width="111.0px" class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid">2,326</td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="bottom" width="365.0px" class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid">Underwriting result</td><td align="right" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="bottom" width="111.0px" class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid">341</td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="bottom" width="365.0px" class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid">Operating result</td><td align="right" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="bottom" width="111.0px" class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid">306</td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="bottom" width="365.0px" class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid">Operating EPS (EUR)</td><td align="right" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="bottom" width="111.0px" class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid">0.11</td></tr><tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="bottom" width="365.0px" class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid">Combined ratio (%)</td><td align="right" colspan="1" rowspan="1" valign="bottom" width="111.0px" class="mfn-bb-solid mfn-bl-solid mfn-br-solid mfn-bt-solid">85.37</td></tr></tbody></table><p>More consensus estimates can be found on Sampo’s webpage:&nbsp;<u><a href="https://www.sampo.com/investors/analyst-information/consensus-estimates/" rel="noopener">https://www.sampo.com/investors/analyst-information/consensus-estimates/</a></u></p><p>Sampo’s Q1 report will be published on Wednesday May 6 at 08:30 EEST.</p></div><div class="mfn-footer mfn-attachment mfn-attachment-general"><p><strong class="mfn-heading-1">Attachments</strong><br><a class="mfn-generated mfn-primary" href="https://storage.mfn.se/29057b33-acd4-43ce-a2f0-7768ec3e71db/sampo-consensus-estimates-q1-2026.pdf" rel="noopener">Sampo – Consensus estimates Q1 2026</a></p></div>

KPI (MEUR, unless otherwise specified)	Q1 2026E
Insurance revenue, net (incl. brokerage)	2,326
Underwriting result	341
Operating result	306
Operating EPS (EUR)	0.11
Combined ratio (%)	85.37