contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


redeye-remedy-well-equipped-for-accelerated-investments

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Remedy Entertainment is a game developer. Its operations are primarily focused on the development of action games, with a particular focus on 3D technology. Examples of games that the company has developed include several different versions of Alan Wake, Max Payne, and Control. Remedy also develops its own game engine and tooling technology that powers many of its games. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

I don’t fundamentally trust that forecast much, at least not when there is still such a long time until release. Gamalytic doesn’t disclose how they arrive at that month 1 forecast, but I interpret it as extrapolating the development of wishlists and then the launch game sales from that. Likely, there are some variables running in the background related to the wishlist-to-sales ratio, including the game’s genre, price, etc. Sources for images and graphs are listed at the end of the post.                                                I would personally rather look at it from the starting point of what the game could sell with current wishlists if the game were released tomorrow. In recent years, the median wishlist-to-sales ratio for Steam games has hovered between 0.15-0.20 for the first week of game sales. Based on Gamediscover’s 2025 publication, the median for games with >25k wishlists is 0.15, while a year earlier the median for games with >100k wishlists was 0.27, but the n-number in the latter is very small. Note! In the images and writings, both Week 1 and Month 1 wishlist-to-sales estimates are mixed. It’s worth being careful about which one is being discussed.                                                                                                  When considering, in addition to what was written earlier, that Control Resonant is a sequel from a well-known studio and a well-known GOTY-winning IP, I think one can conservatively estimate a 0.25-0.3 first month sales-to-wishlist ratio. But everyone can reflect and evaluate for themselves a) whether they trust Gamalytic’s wishlist estimate and b) what would be a suitable week/month 1 sales-to-wishlist ratio for a game like Resonant. With these assumptions, one could assume that if the game were released tomorrow, Gamalytic’s wishlist estimate were accurate, and the game had the previously mentioned 0.3 wishlist-to-sales ratio for the first month’s game sales, then Resonant would sell 150k copies on Steam next month (+ consoles). Coincidentally, the same number is apparently the lower end of Gamalytic’s month 1 estimate. All of this is, of course, pure speculation. In reality, the range of outcomes is very wide. The wishlist-to-sales ratio in AAA games can be anything from perhaps 0.05 up to maybe 1-3. Brands and sequels usually (but not always!) provide some security. For example, the poorly received CIV7 (~Mixed 50% positive reviews) gathered 0.40 wishlist-to-week1 conversions.                                                                                               Sources:  Gamalytic.com blog - Exploring the Steam wishlists/sales ratio Gamediscover.co newsletter - Revealed: the state of Steam wishlist conversions & ‘long tail’ in 2024 *Gamediscover.co newsletter - The state of Steam wishlist ‘conversions’: 2024-2025

Good analysis @Akee   What do you estimate the Predicted month 1 sales to be if we were in the TOP 10 wishlist at launch?

Yep. In early spring, there are usually only Microsoft’s/Sony’s own online events. It’s important to be featured in these, preferably with Sony, whose consumers might even buy games. At Summer Games Fest in June, perhaps a Gameplay/preorder or launch trailer, depending on when it launches. I personally expect preorders to start at SGF on 6/26, then a launch trailer at Gamescom on 8/26, leading to a release around 9/26. Remedy has historically benefited from or utilized the recency bias with late-year releases (Control, AW2) just before the GOTY season.

It hasn’t been widely noted that a marketing collaboration for Control Resonant has apparently been established with Sony. It’s not a given for a game that its trailer is shared on PlayStation’s official YouTube channels. This bodes well for its visibility in Sony’s State of Play presentations next year. I’ve held back my own comments on the game a bit, because, like Ake, Remedy is overweight in my portfolio, and I’m somewhat prone to optimism because of it. However, I’m not a megafan of Remedy games; I’ve approached several previous releases with significant reservations about whether the game was meant for me. Typically, when it comes to action games, I lean towards products from the land of the rising sun. Control Resonant, however, is now the first Remedy game whose trailer genuinely made me look forward to the studio’s game, because it has a bit of a Nier vibe (partly thanks to the Bulgarian (?) folk music playing in the trailer) and it’s almost as if they’ve borrowed sugar from neighboring studio Housemarque. Suda51-esque floating heads are a plus. This clip was what sold the game to me:  If Remedy tackles one of the biggest problems in its games, the variety of enemy types (enemy variety), and the game’s action gets rolling, then it will turn out well. Very little of the actual game has been seen yet, and the gameplay footage has so far still been fighting one enemy at a time.

In other news, Resonant’s wishlist estimate updated to Gamalytic Half a million wishlists surpassed on Steam. Plus consoles on top of that.  Currently ranks 84th in Steam wishlists (SteamDB). Roughly a million would put it in the TOP 20 and 1.3-1.5M in the TOP 10. I stick to my previous estimate that there are good chances for this to be a TOP 10 wishlisted game by launch.

Here are the updated forecasts. While working on Excel, I noticed that the depreciations for the Control rights on the balance sheet were still assumed with the previous 2027 release schedule, so I had to fine-tune the forecasts for these as well. These relate to when Remedy bought back the publishing rights for Control from 505 Games. Of course, there’s no exact visibility into those depreciation schedules, so the assumptions are still partly incorrect

In Remedy’s case, EBIT and EPS figures are quite unhelpful in the coming years, as amortizations of capitalized development costs weigh them down. Amortizations are made very front-loaded in relation to the sales of their own game releases, so a large part has already been amortized in the first year, and almost all capitalized expenses within, say, 3 years. Partially, those capitalizations of development costs also supported Remedy’s results at one point in 2021-2022. And Remedy’s business model has also changed over the years, so one cannot really find any indication from the historical figures of how the figures will develop in the future. It can be stated that if Control Resonant and other upcoming self-published games sell well, Remedy’s cash register will ring on a completely different scale than what has happened in history.

Remedy Entertainment

Redeye has postponed the expected release of the free-to-play game codenamed Vanguard in its research update. In our new assumptions Remedy will rely on premium games and one smaller game within...

<div class="mfn-body"><p>Redeye has postponed the expected release of the free-to-play game codenamed Vanguard in its research update. In our new assumptions Remedy will rely on premium games and one smaller game within the “games as a service” business model until 2026. This makes our estimate less uncertain during a 3-4 year period, which lowers the investment risk we ague.</p><p><a rel="noopener" href="https://www.redeye.se/research/876649/remedy-well-equipped-for-accelerated-investments">Read more and download the Research Update.</a></p><p>Follow companies at Redeye to receive the latest equity research within Life Science and Technology.</p><p>This is a press release from Redeye - Research Powered Investment Banking. <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.redeye.se/">www.redeye.se/</a></p></div><div class="mfn-footer mfn-attachment mfn-attachment-general"><p><strong class="mfn-heading-1">Attachments</strong></p><hr><p><a rel="noopener" href="https://storage.mfn.se/18459d98-3c41-4859-b6f1-c156b9f38689/remedy-well-equipped-for-accelerated-investments.pdf" class="mfn-generated mfn-primary">Remedy - Well-equipped for accelerated investments</a></p></div>