Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/29/2026 at 08:30 pm EET

Alma Media reported expectedly strong figures for Q3, as the exemplary growth pace of revenue highlighted the scalability potential of the business. Reflecting these same factors, the company's earnings growth outlook for the coming years is good, and relative to this, the valuation of the share is attractive. We reiterate our Buy recommendation but revise our target price to EUR 16.0 (was EUR 16.5), in line with the slightly elevated required return. The Q3 interview with Alma Media’s CEO can be viewed here.

Successes on several fronts

Alma Media’s Q3 revenue grew as expected by 6% to just over 84 MEUR. As expected, the growth was driven by Marketplaces and Career, while News Media continued its expectedly stable performance. Alma Media generated an adjusted EBIT of 26.3 MEUR in Q3, and its adjusted EBIT margin rose clearly from the comparison period, as we expected (Q3’26 31.2% vs. 28.6%). Revenue growth well highlights the scalability potential of Alma Media's various businesses, and the company has also continued its tight cost discipline as before. Overall, the company's reported Q3 figures were well in line with our expectations. We commented on the Q3 figures in more detail on Thursday, which can be read here.

The guidance was raised for the top line

On the day of its earnings release, Alma Media upgraded its revenue guidance for this year. The company now also expects revenue to increase from the previous year, whereas previously it guided for stable revenue development. Adjusted EBIT is expected to increase as before. The guidance upgrade was not particularly surprising, and we had previously estimated that our estimates were at the upper end of the qualitative guidance. In Q3, the company's organic growth pace was slightly faster than the 5% pace aligned with its financial targets, which reflects its strong market position and successful productization across various businesses on a broad front. We estimate these will remain viable drivers of growth going forward, as there have been no major changes in the overall market outlook.

Only minor revisions to estimates

We have made only minor adjustments to our estimates following the expected Q3 report. Our revenue and EBIT estimates for 2026-2028 rose by 2-4%, with the essential driver being a small acquisition announced on the reporting day. The acquisition of KTI Kiinteistötieto is a good illustration of Alma Media’s acquisition strategy, as it strengthens the company's position in the value chain with businesses focused on essential value chain data and value-added services built on top of it. We expect Alma Media's revenue to grow by an average of around 5% in 2026-2028, but thanks to the good scalability of the business model, we estimate adjusted EBIT to grow faster, at an annual rate of around 11%.

Earnings growth and dividend create a high expected return

Based on the LTM results, the adjusted P/E and EV/EBIT multiples for the stock are around 16x and 13x. In our view, given Alma Media's high return on capital, good cash flow profile, and growth prospects, these valuation multiples are attractive, although required returns have faced some upward pressure due to rising interest rates. However, the expected return is largely built on the rapid earnings growth we expect for the next few years and is supported by an estimated dividend yield of around 4%. These, together with the slight upside in the valuation, raise the expected return for the next few years clearly above the required return. The moderate valuation is also suggested by our DCF model, which stands at EUR 16.2 per share. We therefore consider the risk/reward ratio of the stock very attractive at the current valuation level.