CapMan Q1'26: Eyes still firmly on fundraising

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 5/6/2026 at 7:56 pm EEST.

Overall, the Q1 report was positive, and the most significant aspect was the progress of the fundraising processes despite the market uncertainty. Although we have made some negative estimate changes, we still expect strong earnings growth in the coming years, driven by new sales. If earnings growth materializes, the stock is cheap, but without it, it is fairly valued. We reiterate our EUR 2.1 target price and Accumulate recommendation.

Good start to the year

In Q1, CapMan's revenue increased by 25% to 16.3 MEUR year-on-year (Q1'25: 13.0 MEUR), exceeding our forecast of 15.3 MEUR. The estimate beat was largely due to recurring fees growing faster than expected. As expected, new sales remained sluggish in the first months of the year, with gross sales standing at 60 MEUR. Assets under management remained at the year-end level of 7.2 BEUR due to capital returns. The most crucial metric for the investment case, fee profit, improved by 48% year-on-year, hitting our estimated 2.2 MEUR exactly (Q1'25: 1.5 MEUR). The company also emphasized in its report that business scaling will occur fully when large funds reach their target size.

Comparable EBIT was 6.1 MEUR, slightly exceeding our estimate due to higher-than-expected investment income. Costs were again slightly higher than we expected, but this was offset by stronger growth in recurring fees.

The most important aspect of the report was undoubtedly the company's comments on fundraising. The comments were surprisingly positive, despite the war in Iran, as well as rising interest rates. The company now stated that it expects the first close of the Nordic Real Estate 4 and Infra 3 funds in the coming months, and overall, the company appeared even more confident than before about the progress of its fundraising efforts.

New sales are key to improving earnings

We have lowered our earnings estimates for the next few years by about 10%, primarily due to a decline in investment income and portfolio size. Forecasts for growth in the management business remain largely unchanged, and we continue to expect strong growth and scaling of earnings driven by large fundraising rounds. Carried interest income should also recover significantly in the coming years as several funds transition to the exit phase. Our confidence in the success of large fundraisings has increased somewhat based on the Q1 report, but uncertainty naturally remains high until more detailed fundraising progress information becomes available. Currently, the company's earnings mix is weak because it focuses on investment income. In our estimates, the earnings mix will improve significantly in the coming years as fee profit scales up. The scalability of fee profit is the single most important driver for the share's value. In addition to new sales, success in cost control is also paramount to ensuring scalability. Cash flow will exceed earnings in the coming years as significant capital is returned from the balance sheet. This cash flow will enable generous dividend distributions and capital allocation to growth.

Valuation is not high, provided that new sales start to pick up

At the current share price, the value of CapMan's management business stands at approximately 180 MEUR, which is a low level relative to 7.2 BEUR in assets under management. However, the challenge at the moment is that AUM performance is very modest and far from its potential. It is difficult to justify a higher valuation than the current one based on actual earnings, but if earnings scale as expected, the stock will start to appear cheap. Relative and absolute multiples also support this view. Once an improvement in earnings materializes, the stock will be cheap, and the expected return, formed by earnings growth and a strong dividend, will be excellent. We are still holding back on taking a stronger stance as we want to see concrete progress in fundraising.