CapMan Q4'25: It all comes down to fundraising

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 02/12/2026 at 09:25 pm EET

CapMan's Q4 report was a neutral package overall, as strong management fees and better-than-expected new sales overshadowed the earnings disappointment. Estimate changes remained limited, and we still expect significant earnings growth driven by new sales. If earnings growth materializes, the stock is cheap, but without it, it is fairly valued. We reiterate our EUR 2.1 target price and Accumulate recommendation. The name of the game for 2026 is clear: this year, CapMan must succeed in new sales, or the entire investment case will significantly weaken.

Neutral end to the year

CapMan's management fees were higher than we expected, and the company also succeeded slightly better than we expected in new sales at the end of the year. Earnings were clearly below our estimate due to high costs and a lower-than-expected return on the investment portfolio. We believe the cost level is mainly explained by the change in bonus provisions, but it would be of paramount importance for the development to stabilize in the next quarter. The dividend is EUR 0.12, falling short of our EUR 0.15 estimate. We believe the company probably wants to ensure its financial flexibility if it needs to make significant investments in its own funds to accelerate fundraising. In Q4, the company made a 10 MEUR investment commitment to the new forest fund.

There were no major surprises in the outlook. The company estimates that both assets under management and fee income will grow this year. The company has four flagship funds (forest, infrastructure, real estate, and real estate debt) fundraising simultaneously in 2026, and the company emphasizes in its report that the focus for the current year is on successful fundraising. The market situation is not easy, but it is gradually improving. The success of fundraising during 2026 will largely determine the success of CapMan's current strategy period.

Earnings should improve clearly

Our estimate changes are minimal. The 2026 earnings should improve significantly with the scalability of the management business and the growth of carried interest income. The 2026 earnings reflect the company's current potential quite well. We continue to believe the company has good preconditions to succeed in fundraising, as the market situation is gradually improving, and the track records of CapMan's top funds are strong. The 2027 earnings are even too good, as our estimates for the year include a significant amount of performance fees as well as other retrospective fees. In the big picture, the main thing is that earnings should move to the next level, driven by new sales and carried interest income. An improvement in the earnings mix is also key for investors. The company's earnings mix is currently very modest, but it should improve significantly in the coming years as new sales substantially increase recurring fees. Success in cost control is paramount for this to materialize We revised our dividend estimates slightly downwards, as the company wants to ensure room for growth investments from a balance sheet perspective.

The valuation is not high, provided that new sales start to pick up

At the current share price, the value of CapMan's business is approximately 200 MEUR. Relative to assets under management of 7.2 BEUR, the price tag is small. However, the challenge at the moment is that AUM performance is modest and far from its potential. Actual results do not justify a higher value than the current one, but our earnings growth forecasts for this year already put the price tag on the business at a quite inexpensive level (EV/EBIT 8-9x). The message is also exactly the same for relative and absolute multiples. Once the earnings improvement is realized, the stock is cheap and the expected return is excellent.