Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/21/2026 at 8:00 am EEST.

We raise our target price for Enersense to EUR 6.2 (was EUR 5.2) but, following the strong share price rise since our previous update, lower our recommendation to Accumulate (was Buy). The company will publish its Q3 results on November 5 at around 8:30 am EET. We make small timing-related adjustments to our current-year forecasts and slightly raise our forecasts for the coming years on positive demand prospects.  Although the clearest undervaluation has already unwound, we still see the expected return driven by earnings growth in the coming years as attractive.

Forecasts tilted slightly toward Q4

We make timing adjustments to our current-year forecasts, as we understand that the start of at least the significant Aquatech project has slipped slightly due to the timing of the Stegra project.  Our full-year estimates are nonetheless broadly unchanged. We now forecast Q3 revenue of 77.7 MEUR (was 83.1 MEUR), down ~4% year-on-year. We expect the lower revenue to have weighed on profitability as well, with adjusted EBITDA forecast at 6.0 MEUR (was 6.6 MEUR).  Earnings are therefore likely to have declined from a very strong comparison period, though it is worth noting that last year’s earnings were heavily weighted toward Q3.

The market outlook remains favorable

The company has guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA of 19–23 MEUR, and we expect it to reiterate this guidance alongside the report. We forecast full-year adjusted EBITDA of 20.0 MEUR (prev. 20.1 MEUR). Reflecting the timing changes, we expect an even stronger Q4 weighting than previously (Q4'26e adj. EBITDA: 9.5 MEUR), which also raises the risk that timing factors such as project schedules and weather jeopardize the guidance. Even if a profit warning were driven solely by the timing of earnings, we would still consider it at least a minor disappointment.

We slightly raise our Power estimates for the coming years on favorable demand prospects. We expect earnings growth to accelerate next year, driven by the market environment and larger efficiency gains from strategic measures (adj. EBITDA 2027e: 24.1 MEUR vs. prev. 23.7 MEUR). We do not believe the new electricity market act under discussion, or its potential dampening effect on data center investments, would jeopardize favorable long-term trends such as electrification and the need to build out energy infrastructure. Based on announced orders, Enersense’s direct involvement in data center projects has also been fairly limited so far. Nor have our forecasts assumed margin improvement from attractive data center projects – we have treated these as a positive option. We therefore see margin growth as realistic on our current underlying assumptions (e.g., the impacts of Value Uplift).

Valuation remains attractive even after the share price rise

On our estimates, current-year EV-based multiples are reasonable given the earnings growth outlook (2026e EV/EBIT 11x, EV/EBITDA 6x). At this point in the year, however, we believe it is justified to lean more heavily on next year, when the multiples (2027e EV/EBIT 8x, EV/EBITDA 5x) fall to the lower end of our acceptable ranges (EV/EBIT 8x–12x, EV/EBITDA 5x–7x). In our view, a neutral valuation for the share currently sits around the midpoint of these ranges. We therefore see upside in the earnings-based valuation despite the brisk share price rise (+46% since our previous update), as long as the earnings turnaround and cash flow development proceed at least roughly as we expect. Other methods also support our view of upside (DCF ~EUR 6.5 per share).