Fiskars Q3'25: Revenue turned to growth, earnings decreased

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/23/2025 at 06:53 pm EEST

As expected, Fiskars' Q3 earnings were weak, and the guidance was revised downwards. The pick-up in revenue raised our expectations for earnings to turn to growth in Q4, which the guidance also indicates. However, we still find the stock's valuation high (e.g. 2025 EV/EBIT 18x). We reiterate our Reduce recommendation and EUR 12 target price.

Revenue turned to growth, earnings were weak

Fiskars Group's Q3 revenue decreased by 1%, or by 4% in comparable currencies, when we expected a decrease. Fiskars’ Q3 adjusted EBIT fell to 13.9 MEUR, while our estimate was 16 MEUR (Q3’24: 24 MEUR). There was a decrease in both segments, with the Fiskars segment's earnings decreasing to 12.6 MEUR (Q3’24: 13.6 MEUR), which was significantly better than our forecast (8 MEUR). The Vita segment's result decreased to 5 MEUR (Q3’24: 13 MEUR), while we expected 11 MEUR.

The guidance was downgraded, our estimate is still below it

Fiskars revised its guidance and now expects the full-year adjusted EBIT to be 90-100 MEUR, while it previously expected 90-110 MEUR (2024: 111 MEUR). Further, the company states that "the company's current visibility points more towards the lower end of the range". In practice, the guidance refers to a result of good 90 MEUR. The guidance downgrade was expected, as both our and the consensus estimate were below the guidance range before the Q3 earnings report. After nine months, the company has made 44 MEUR in adjusted EBIT, so the lower end of the guidance requires 46 MEUR in adjusted EBIT in Q4, when last year the company made 43 MEUR. The company provided clear steps for the guidance, which requires Vita to continue growing, fixed costs to be relatively lower than in Q3, and the Fiskars segment to be able to perform at a level of around the comparison period.

Vita's revenue turnaround to growth in Q3 raised our expectations for a better Q4 compared to the comparison period, as Q4 earnings are highly dependent on Vita's Christmas season sales. In addition, the company's comments on the timing of fixed costs being higher in Q3 than in Q4 last year support the Q4 earnings outlook. Therefore, we raised this year's estimates a bit, even though the Q3 earnings were slightly below our expectations. Our adjusted EBIT estimate is now 88 MEUR, still below the guidance range.

Updated strategy and targets coming in early 2026

Fiskars’ strategy period with financial targets ends at the end of this year. The company is far from the targets it set in 2021. We expect the company to announce a new strategy and financial targets separately for the independently operating Fiskars and Vita segments early next year. In this context, the company is planning a CMD during H1’26. The legal division of the companies within the Group will be completed during Q1’26. After this, we see it as possible that Fiskars would seek to exit the Vita segment by listing it as an independent company or selling it. However, Vita’s current low performance level may hold back the divestment possibilities.

Valuation still high

Fiskars’ valuation multiples for 2025 (e.g. P/E 22x) are above our acceptable multiples and only within them in 2027. Although we expect a dividend decrease next spring, Fiskars offers a 4-5% dividend yield in the coming years. Supported by this, our expected return is around zero. Earnings growth forecasts for the coming years require volume growth and a consequent improvement in profitability, which Fiskars has failed to deliver in recent years. On the other hand, the company should be able to compensate for the direct impact of US tariffs by price increases next year, which supports profitability improvement. Our DCF value is around the current share price.