Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/11/2025 at 7:00 am EET.

Koskisen will publish its Q3 results on Friday at around 8:30 am EET. Market expectations are for an improved year-on-year result, driven by the Sawn Timber Industry, which saw significant improvement already in H1. However, we have slightly lowered our Q3 estimates for Koskisen related to the Panel Industry. We expect Koskisen to reiterate its guidance for revenue growth and an adjusted EBITDA-% of 7-11% for the current year in its Q3 report. We will not change our target price of EUR 9.00 for Koskisen, which we consider neutrally priced, nor our Reduce recommendation prior to the Q3 report (2026e: P/E 11x). 

Strong growth in Sawn Timber Industry

We forecast Koskisen's revenue to increase by 30% to 88 MEUR in the seasonally quietest quarter, Q3. Our estimate is marginally above consensus. In our forecast, growth is driven by Sawn Timber Industry where the higher volumes due to the progress of the new saw line in Järvelä, a better start after summer shutdowns than in the comparison period, as well as the higher sales prices for sawn timber, have clearly increased organic revenue. Additionally, the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä, completed in early June, is estimated to have accelerated inorganic growth in Q3 by 15 percentage points. We expect stable revenue development in the Panel Industry as the market situation appears to have remained fairly sluggish and Q3 was also affected by a relatively long holiday and investment shutdown. We have also lowered our Q3 revenue forecasts for the Panel Industry because, based on the pre-silent period call, the shutdown and subsequent ramp-up did not proceed entirely according to our original expectations.

Earnings improvement is also driven by growth in Sawn Timber Industry

We expect Koskisen's adjusted EBITDA to improve by just under 25% to 4.6 MEUR in the third quarter from the weak comparison period. Our estimate is slightly below consensus. We have also lowered our earnings estimates for the Panel Industry because the decrease in revenue estimates was reflected in the unit's earnings expectations as well. We expect the Panel Industry to stay at the level of the weak comparison period in Q3 due to an overall subdued market, negative effects from the production break, and high birch log prices. We expect the Sawn Timber Industry to have improved its profitability due to volume growth and efficiency gains from the Järvelä investments. We estimate that Iisveden Metsä has slightly supported the Sawn Timber Industry's EBITDA.  Taking into account the small loss of the Other unit, the significantly increased depreciation due to the ramp-up of investments in the Järvelä sawmill as well as low financial expenses and taxes, we expect Koskisen's EPS to increase to zero in Q3, driven by growth in operating profit, from a loss in the comparison period. Our bottom-line forecast is slightly below consensus.

Company likely to reiterate guidance

Koskisen has issued a guidance for 2025 according to which revenue will grow from last year (2024: 282 MEUR revenue) and the adjusted EBITDA margin will be 7-11%. We expect Koskisen, whose guidance has been quite broad throughout the year, to reiterate the guidance in its Q3 report, and based on consensus, this is also the market expectation. The company's market situation has likely remained fairly stable, as a significant recovery in construction has yet to begin. The decline in log prices will also have a limited impact on the figures for Q4. We estimate that the company will meet its broad margin range thanks to a good H1, the benefits of efficiency-improving investments that are visible in results throughout the year, and the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä. Regarding the market situation, we don't expect Koskisen to signal any radical changes one way or the other in connection with the Q3 report. Market commentary is still under close scrutiny as the consensus expects, and in our view, the valuation requires, clear earnings growth from the company next year as well. Meeting these expectations would also likely require gradual improvement in both units' market situations over the course of next year.