contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Head of Nordic ER Development, Analyst

Antti Luiro

Analyst

Frans-Mikael Rostedt

LeadDesk operates in the IT sector. The company operates as a technical developer of software solutions. The solutions are used for analysis and processing of customers' sales and support functions. The largest operations are found in the Nordic market, where the customers consist of small and medium-sized business customers. The head office is located in Helsinki.

This turned out to be a challenging report to write this time, as profitability beat expectations so clearly, but ARR growth fell short of expectations and AI development has been so rapid. The pessimistic scenario sounds dramatic, but it’s more about the fact that it is now truly quite pessimistic  Here is my train of thought, quoted from the report. AI is arriving with force, but also creates opportunities We lowered our revenue forecasts as ARR fell short of our estimates. Additionally, we estimate that the AI disruption will weigh more heavily on the current business and user-based pricing models than previously thought, and that tightened regulation will slow down the sale of outbound software. We believe, however, that CCaaS platforms have a role as platforms for AI agents and as players that bring AI benefits and transparency to customers, especially in regulated industries (e.g., healthcare). We see good growth opportunities for LeadDesk with its own AI products as a European alternative. Tele-services (~24% of revenue) could even benefit from the AI disruption, as AI agents require infrastructure for calls and messages, while simultaneously enabling strong scaling of personalized customer service, even though the number of human agents will likely decrease significantly. Despite the lowered revenue forecasts, our earnings estimates for the coming years rose following Q4 profitability that was clearly stronger than expected. Our confidence in the company’s M&A strategy has strengthened as profitability has surfaced. We forecast that organic, currency-adjusted revenue will decrease by 2.2% in 2026 and the EBITDA margin will rise to 19.1%.

Frans has written a good report on LeadDesk after the Q4 results were clarified.  We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation, but lower our target price to EUR 6.80 (previously EUR 8.00) driven by the acceptable valuation level and forecast reductions. LeadDesk’s Q4 was mixed. Profitability clearly exceeded our expectations, but ARR development remained subdued. The company’s guidance points to a subdued organic growth outlook, but the earnings growth outlook remains strong in the short term. Based on these and driven by the expected strong development of AI (threat and opportunity), our revenue forecasts decreased, but our earnings forecasts increased for the coming years. We now base our valuation more heavily on the cash flows of the coming years and see the current valuation level (EV/EBIT 2026e-27e 11.6x-9.5x) as still attractive relative to the earnings growth trend and potential. Quoted from the report: Pessimistic scenario now prices in broad AI disruption and failure to adapt to this The pessimistic scenario now illustrates where the share price could fall if AI were to disrupt the company’s business and LeadDesk fails to react to this successfully. We believe the scenario is unlikely, as the company is focused on shareholder value creation and the underlying profitability of the current business would, in our view, be at least about 10 percentage points higher if the growth taps were turned off completely. This is also supported by recent profitability development. In practice, the pessimistic scenario would mean a performance clearly weaker than the H2 profitability level. As a result of these changes, the DCF value for the pessimistic scenario fell to EUR 2.7 (previously EUR 4.9), and now describes a truly very pessimistic scenario.                   Inderes              LeadDesk Q4'25: Tuloskasvun jatkuminen keskiössä - Inderes    LeadDeskin Q4 oli kaksijakoinen. Kannattavuus ylitti selvästi odotuksemme, mutta ARR-kehitys jäi vaisuksi.

@Olli_Nokso-Koivisto was interviewed by Frans regarding Q4                    Inderes              LeadDesk Q4'25: Kannattavuus yllätti - Inderes    Aika: 04.03.2026 klo 18.42 LeadDeskin kannattavuus ylitti ennusteemme selvästi.                             Topics: 00:00 Intro  00:20 LeadDesk’s year 2025  00:52 Profitability at a strong level  01:41 Recurring contract base declined  02:42 Revenue outlook  03:33 Profitability outlook  04:30 Fluentic acquisition  06:31 LeadDesk’s AI development  11:05 Voicebots  15:05 AI-native AI agents  18:33 What provides protection from the SaaSapocalypse?

No revenue guidance was given for next year; profitability guidance is a 15-20 percent EBITDA margin. Last year, 16.9 percent was reached. However, the materials repeat that profitability will also improve in 2026:  The profit improvement is a direct result of the determined implementation of our strategy. Our strategy consists of two phases: first, we strengthen our profitability, after which we accelerate growth investments. In 2025, we focused successfully on the first phase and achieved economies of scale through the successful integration of Zisson. As a result, we expect profitability to strengthen further in 2026.  Additionally, I believe it was mentioned in the presentation that EBITDA is expected to grow this year. From this, one could probably think that if, for example, revenue were expected to stay flat, the EBITDA margin range would be more like 17-20 percent. It’s perhaps a bit difficult to see how they would suddenly drop to the lower end of the given range. The development has been quite the opposite quarter after quarter, and the company consistently repeats how the focus is now on profitability and its improvement. But LeadDesk doesn’t actually adjust for any one-off costs, so perhaps there is some provision for those types of items.

storage.googleapis.com              leaddesk-oyj-tilinpaatostiedote-2025-final.pdf    536.48 KB                            First take: A financial statement release pretty much in line with expectations is out. EBITDA from the latest quarter is perhaps the only clear positive. The biggest concern is this:  Organically, revenue decreased by approximately 2.8 percent year-on-year, as increased telemarketing regulation had a negative impact especially on revenue development in Continental Europe during the second half of the year.  Faith is being tested a bit now as to whether this will indeed turn into organic growth. Regarding market fears: I don’t believe the fear is justified that AI’s ability to code by itself would take customers away from Leaddesk. If I look at a typical small to medium-sized company, they are nowhere near having AI in use yet. Therefore, I don’t see the possibility of these companies jumping from point zero in AI usage straight to building their own agents or applications instead of buying from an external provider. Leaddesk has the potential to continue providing solutions to these companies for a long time to come. Especially now, with global turmoil and a need for European solutions in Europe. I demand proof of sales!

Thanks for asking.  You don’t have to ask these, but here is what I’ve been pondering: I’ve been wondering for a long time whether LeadDesk isn’t essentially operating in an industry that is slowly withering away – particularly regarding calls, but perhaps also in terms of messaging more generally. Furthermore, related to the above, I’m also wondering whether, even though LeadDesk is involved in AI to some extent, the AI solutions from larger and/or new players could completely revolutionize and change the industry to the point where LeadDesk’s “solutions” are no longer needed – people’s habits and behaviors are also changing, which could also cause the industry to wither. How do you see these risks and LeadDesk’s position now and in the future? You can skip this if you feel like it, as the aforementioned topic has already been covered a bit in the thread.

No question, just some wondering. I bought 30 LeadDesk shares today out of interest, because after some Q-report in 2025 the stock rose sharply, only to fade into obscurity again. Today’s turnover of €2,300 is surprising, given that the annual report is supposed to be released tomorrow, albeit not until the afternoon.

LeadDesk

LeadDesk is a SaaS software company whose product enhances the sales and customer service of companies in Europe. Its historical growth track record is good looking beyond short-term challenges...

<p>LeadDesk is a SaaS software company whose product enhances the sales and customer service of companies in Europe. Its historical growth track record is good looking beyond short-term challenges. Driven by strong market growth, competitive offering and good strategy implementation we expect the company’s organic growth to be 10-13% in the next few years. Relative to this, the share’s valuation (2023e EV/S: 1.4x) is very attractive and we believe it entails unjustifiably cautious expectations of the company. </p> 

	2021	22e	23e
Revenue	24.6	28.0	30.7
growth-%	78.0 %	13.9 %	9.8 %
EBIT (adj.)	1.1	0.7	1.5
EBIT-% (adj.)	4.6 %	2.4 %	4.8 %
EPS (adj.)	0.08	0.03	0.08
Dividend	0.00	0.00	0.00
Dividend %
P/E (adj.)	274.6	188.0	57.6
EV/EBITDA	37.7	9.3	7.0

LeadDesk: Better than its price

Key Estimate Figures2022-12-20

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