contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Co. Head of Research

Petri Gostowski

Neste produces transport fuel and renewable fuels. Today, the largest operations and extraction are held in the Nordic market, where the company is active in the entire value chain, from extraction to delivery to port depots. In addition, the opportunity is given for direct sales where customers can pick up fuel at selected stations. The largest market is in the Nordic region, and the company is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

It’s clear that transport is electrifying at an accelerating pace with a battery pack like that, and fossil fuel consumption is decreasing.. Personally, I’ll stick with fossil-fuel cars in the future, as it’s not hard to see that oil prices will drop while taxation on electric vehicles rises in the future. = You won’t gain any financial benefit from an EV in the future either. It will take years before that battery pack is found in the average person’s car on a large scale, anyway.. The ramp-up will be a long process.

Manufacturing the ”miracle battery” is a significant bottleneck (if it even works), which is good for Neste. The vehicle fleet—whether passenger cars or heavy machinery—renews slowly, and even among the new ones, these ”miracle batteries” will only be installed in a fraction of them in any scenario. It’s hard to disrupt the market if you only have 0.001% of the market even 10 years from now.

I don’t see the impact being that significant IF the battery is as revolutionary as claimed. Heavy transport still needs diesel and SAF consumption is rising, so there is still demand for renewables. And shipping is constantly shifting more towards renewables, so there will definitely be enough demand in the future.

How would this new “miracle battery” (if it works??) affect Neste? I can’t find any discussion on this in this thread.

OP today Both Q4 and Q1 results exceed consensus Neste’s Q4 results continue to be weighed down by old fixed-price contracts in renewable products that covered the entire previous year. Nevertheless, substantial inventory levels allowed for significant sales volumes in the spot market as well. In addition, we believe consensus forecasts underestimate the dilutive effect of the 2025 fixed-price contracts, and thus, upon their expiration, consensus margin forecasts for Q1/26 are, in our view, significantly too low. We reiterate our target price of EUR 27.00 and our BUY recommendation. etc…

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/us-finalize-2026-biofuel-quotas-by-early-march-drop-import-penalties-sources-say-2026-01-15/?utm_source=chatgpt.com I suppose news/rumours from US are positive to Neste, althouth not unexpected.. Could it be that this article in Reuters had spiked Neste’s share price above 21 Eur temporarily today?

In two years, if the renewables sales margin were 600 USD/t and the sales volume 6 Mt/a, then Neste could be a 30 euro stock. In Q3/25, the renewables sales margin was 480 USD/t and in the peak year 2023 it was 863 USD/t, so in itself quite a possible scenario.

Neste

In Neste's Q4 report, the main focus was on the outlook for Renewable Products, as the segment's expected earnings growth has been colored by a number of challenges. For these, the overall picture is now somewhat clearer, but the earnings growth from higher sales volumes seems to be coming in more slowly than expected. We have lowered our forecasts for the current year to reflect this, but over the longer term the changes have been small.

<p>In Neste's Q4 report, the main focus was on the outlook for Renewable Products, as the segment's expected earnings growth has been colored by a number of challenges. For these, the overall picture is now somewhat clearer, but the earnings growth from higher sales volumes seems to be coming in more slowly than expected. We have lowered our forecasts for the current year to reflect this, but over the longer term the changes have been small.</p> 

	2023	24e	25e
Revenue	22,925.9	21,547.2	24,288.0
growth-%	-10.8 %	-6.0 %	12.7 %
EBIT (adj.)	2,591.5	1,695.7	2,225.4
EBIT-% (adj.)	11.3 %	7.9 %	9.2 %
EPS (adj.)	2.88	1.80	2.35
Dividend	1.20	1.25	1.30
Dividend %	3.7 %	6.3 %	6.6 %
P/E (adj.)	11.2	11.0	8.5
EV/EBITDA	10.7	6.6	5.3

Neste: The fog is lifting with small steps

Key Estimate Figures2024-02-08

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