contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


nokia-cash-flow-based-valuation-not-attractive

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Atte Riikola

Nokia is a global telecommunications company. The company offers solutions in IP, broadband, digital health, and cloud-based systems. The customers are found in a broad base of markets and consist of large corporate customers, authorities, and private consumers. The business is established on a global level in all regions. Nokia was founded in 1865 and the head office is located in Esbo, Finland.

Indeed, the situation is interesting, and for Nokia, the opportunities seem to be growing day by day. So far, hardly anyone is highlighting Nokia in this regard. I suspect it’s largely going under the radar until the situation starts to take shape (if I am indeed interpreting Nokia’s current position correctly). In this market, one should (in the coming years) do well if one can only sell capacity. Well, some have started to notice the rise of the CPO market.    The table is, however, outdated in many respects. Nokia+Infinera are together, and factories have been built, and neither of them has been a component seller → likely will be in the future. That article also highlights Lumentum, but as far as I understand, their InP production is in Japan - and this should be significant. Nokia does everything vertically in the United States. And I suspect this was also brought up in the contract with the Trump administration. “Can I tell everything I know. Not yet.”

Lumentum’s outlook on the strongly growing InP-laser demand and the CPO market opening faster than estimated is indeed interesting from Nokia’s perspective. This aligns with the fact that electrical I/O (input/output) consumes 30–40% of a GPU’s power, and data center power consumption is starting to significantly limit the growth of AI capacity. CPO is a solution to this, and hyperscalers have no alternative if they have to choose between CPO-GPU or stagnation of growth. ROI calculations can change rapidly, and decisions are being brought forward. In this situation, optical components quickly become a bottleneck for the rapid growth of AI computing capacity. Nokia has a clear competitive advantage compared to other optical component suppliers (Lumentum, Coherent) because Nokia can supply a complete optical engine (a hybrid InP + SiPh entity that generates, modulates, and routes light in a CPO environment). Instead, Nokia would probably not replace Broadcom in the CPO’s electrical system-level layer (SerDes, I/O logic). The transition to CPO-GPUs apparently signifies a change in manufacturing architecture and value chain involving multiple suppliers, but the supply chain is most difficult to replace precisely concerning the optical engine. If CPO adoption grows faster than expected, the focus of value shifts from components to integration, and this is where Nokia’s expertise is highlighted, alongside its own InP-PIC production.

Nokia today announced that it has been awarded the prestigious IoT Innovator title at The Fast Mode Awards 2025, receiving recognition in the excellence area of Innovation for its Cognitive Digital Mine (CDM). The awards, hosted by world-leading telecoms media and research brand The Fast Mode, convened over 300 network operators, technology players, and industry leaders from across the globe to celebrate the industry’s most transformative technologies and future-forward innovations.                   thefastmode.com              Nokia Recognized with IoT Innovator Award for Cognitive Digital Mine,...    Nokia Recognized with IoT Innovator Award for Cognitive Digital Mine, Delivering Extreme-Edge AI for Mission-Critical Connectivity

In summary from OP’s morning review. Nokia’s peer Ciena reported stronger-than-expected Q4 results and provided market-beating guidance for 2026. Ciena’s strong growth led OP to estimate that their 8% growth forecast for Nokia’s Network Infrastructure in 2026 seems a bit too cautious, despite Nokia’s growth having been slower than Ciena’s.

Apparently, Nokia is now the theme of The Motley Fool. Here, Nokia and Qualcomm have been highlighted as attractive investment targets with the theme: 2 Cheap Tech Stocks to Buy Right Now.                   The Motley Fool – 11 Dec 25              2 Cheap Tech Stocks to Buy Right Now | The Motley Fool    These stocks have struggled for years but may finally be gearing up for a rally.                              So far, the results of these deals have not yet appeared in the financials. In the first nine months of 2025, the Finland-based tech giant reported a 4% increase in net sales compared to the same period in 2024. Unfortunately, the cost of sales rose 10% over the same timeframe.   Nonetheless, analysts predict a 24% increase in profits for 2026. Looking ahead, its forward one-year earnings multiple is at 16. Those numbers indicate it is likely not too late to buy into what looks like an emerging opportunity.

Short summary by AI of the essential points of the article on Nokia’s stock potential:  Nokia: $10 Achievable in 2026? The article estimates that Nokia’s share price could rise above $10 in 2026, which would be the highest price in a decade.  Main Driver (AI Catalyst): This is backed by Nvidia’s announcement to invest $1 billion in developing Nokia’s AI-powered mobile networks and network infrastructure. Although the share price has since fallen from its initial peak ($8.19), the potential impact of this catalyst remains significant. Valuation Comment: Nokia’s stock (NOK) is currently trading at approximately 13 times (forward P/E) its earnings forecast. According to the article, if Nokia were to achieve only a moderate re-rating (e.g., 20–25x P/E), valuations common for other AI networking companies (over 30x P/E), the stock price would rise above $10. Earnings Growth: Wall Street analysts predict Nokia’s earnings to grow by 25% in 2026, supporting this potential for a valuation re-rating.                    The Motley Fool – 11 Dec 25              Could Nokia Reach $10 in 2026? The Answer May Blow Your Mind. | The Motley Fool    Nokia's AI pivot, combined with other plans to enhance the company's financial performance, could propel the stock to multidecade highs in 2026.

RCR Wireless News – 11 Dec 25              Further Nokia jobs to go in Greece and Italy, as European workers protest    Reports in Germany suggest a further 300 Nokia roles in Greece and Italy to be cut. Staff in Munich, Paris, Athens, and Vimercate have staged coordinated protests.

Nokia

Overall, Nokia's Q4 results and outlook for 2024 were broadly in line with expectations. We saw no need for significant changes to our earnings forecasts at the group level, and which is why we found the share price reaction (+11%) on earnings day surprising.

<p>Overall, Nokia's Q4 results and outlook for 2024 were broadly in line with expectations. We saw no need for significant changes to our earnings forecasts at the group level, and which is why we found the share price reaction (+11%) on earnings day surprising. The valuation of the stock still looks moderate on adjusted earnings, but not particularly attractive in light of the free cash flow burdened by restructuring costs in the coming years. </p> 

	2023	24e	25e
Revenue	22,279.0	21,711.2	21,889.0
growth-%	-10.6 %	-2.5 %	0.8 %
EBIT (adj.)	2,375.0	2,490.2	2,419.6
EBIT-% (adj.)	10.7 %	11.5 %	11.1 %
EPS (adj.)	0.29	0.33	0.32
Dividend	0.13	0.14	0.16
Dividend %	4.3 %	2.7 %	3.0 %
P/E (adj.)	10.6	16.2	16.4
EV/EBITDA	5.3	9.9	9.6

Nokia: Cash flow-based valuation is not attractive

Key Estimate Figures2024-01-25

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