contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Atte Riikola

Nokia is a global telecommunications company. The company offers solutions in IP, broadband, digital health, and cloud-based systems. The customers are found in a broad base of markets and consist of large corporate customers, authorities, and private consumers. The business is established on a global level in all regions. Nokia was founded in 1865 and the head office is located in Esbo, Finland.

Based on the presentations I linked, Arista and Cisco are investing in Linear Pluggable Optics (LPO) solutions instead of CPO. Nokia is not known to be developing its own LPO products, and the rationale may be the following (GTP5.2): "Linear pluggable optics is a real and rational competitor to CPO in the short and medium term, and it is already in limited production use by hyperscalers. It offers a large portion of CPO’s energy efficiency benefits without the risks of co-packaging. However, LPO does not eliminate the port density and electrical limitations of the pluggable architecture, so at the highest speeds (1.6T+) and scales, CPO is inevitable in the long term. LPO and CPO are not alternatives but successive steps. Nokia does not appear to be developing LPO as its own strategic optics product, but rather treats it as a transitional solution that it supports at the system level, but does not build its long-term competitive advantage on it. Nokia’s actual investment is in CPO and optical engines (InP + SiPh), where it can transfer architectural value-add to itself. LPO is a compatibility and customer path for Nokia, not a destination."

From the perspective of the CPO market, an even bigger opportunity than GPU-CPO development is Ethernet switch CPOs. There are thousands of Ethernet switches in data centers, and their share of power consumption is significant, and the transition from 400-800G port speeds to 1.6-3.2T requires a new architecture. Nvidia and Broadcom have already developed 1st generation switch CPOs, which utilize SiPh photonics and have demonstrated the concept’s functionality. They still require an external laser, but real added value will only come from a solution containing an optical engine, which is a truly significant opportunity for Nokia. Currently, the added value Nokia receives from its data center switches, which utilize Broadcom’s ASICs (Jericho), is relatively small and, due to the business model, clearly smaller than, for example, Arista (even though Arista is also very dependent on Broadcom). When Nokia integrates its own optical engine into Ethernet switches, the competitiveness of the switches and the added value Nokia receives will increase significantly. And the development is not limited to this yet; a similar electrical ASIC-SerDes unit is also in routers, and in the future, Nokia can replace pluggable optics with an integrated optical engine in routers as well. Pluggable sales will decrease, but product competitiveness and margins will improve. Perhaps this is “That which must not yet be spoken of” because it would be “reckless.” Of course, Nokia’s competitors are also preparing for the CPO leap, but they lack their own InP-PIC Fab. Here is a related GTP5.2 summary: It is not an oversimplification to say that the ASIC–SerDes electrical unit is a key part of data transmission at the GPU, switch, and router level. It is a common interface where electrical computation meets the physical transmission path, whether it is copper or optics. CPO and optical I/O do not eliminate this unit, but rather move the optics physically closer to it and make its role even more critical.

Vista Partners LLC | HomeVista Partners LLC – 14 Dec 25              How Nokia and Airtel Aim to Monetize 5G APIs and Rewrite India’s Enterprise...    Nokia’s (NOK) latest deal with Bharti Airtel is less a routine vendor announcement than a reminder that in 5G, the real money may lie not in more base stations, but in turning the network itself into something closer to a programmable asset…         Est. reading time: 4 minutes                               AI Summary. Nokia’s and Bharti Airtel’s latest agreement in India shifts their long-standing hardware-centric collaboration (AirScale radio) towards higher-margin software. The core of the agreement is Nokia’s “Network as Code” platform, which makes Airtel’s network’s 4G/5G capabilities (such as low latency and prioritized traffic) available to third parties through easy-to-use APIs. This initiative finally aims to fulfill 5G’s promises of monetizable use cases by creating new revenue streams for existing network infrastructure. Instead of operators entering a new expensive CAPEX cycle, Airtel gains a way to sell network components as a flexible, subscription-based service to players in industry (Industry 4.0), finance, and logistics. For Nokia, the agreement strengthens its API strategy and proves that its software investments (e.g., in the core network) are ready for commercialization.

Regarding Lumentum’s and Nokia’s different communication strategies, GTP5.2 summarized it as follows: Lumentum can speak more openly because it sells capacity and components; Nokia cannot, because it sells architecturally critical integration and negotiation power. This difference explains almost everything. Analogous comparison (similar difference seen previously):   Lumentum is like an HBM memory manufacturer  → can talk about capacity and demand   Nokia is like a GPU interconnect architecture provider  → cannot speak until the design is locked.

David Heard seemed to continue with “yes, it would be reckless”.  According to GTP5.2’s interpretation: David Heard’s “it would be reckless” almost certainly referred to non-public, market-sensitive information about the demand for optical components, capacity, and/or long-term customer agreements surrounding AI infrastructure and CPO. Commenting could have prematurely revealed Nokia’s negotiating power, customer relationships, or future earnings development – which is why he was stopped.

Indeed, the situation is interesting, and for Nokia, the opportunities seem to be growing day by day. So far, hardly anyone is highlighting Nokia in this regard. I suspect it’s largely going under the radar until the situation starts to take shape (if I am indeed interpreting Nokia’s current position correctly). In this market, one should (in the coming years) do well if one can only sell capacity. Well, some have started to notice the rise of the CPO market.    The table is, however, outdated in many respects. Nokia+Infinera are together, and factories have been built, and neither of them has been a component seller → likely will be in the future. That article also highlights Lumentum, but as far as I understand, their InP production is in Japan - and this should be significant. Nokia does everything vertically in the United States. And I suspect this was also brought up in the contract with the Trump administration. “Can I tell everything I know. Not yet.”

Lumentum’s outlook on the strongly growing InP-laser demand and the CPO market opening faster than estimated is indeed interesting from Nokia’s perspective. This aligns with the fact that electrical I/O (input/output) consumes 30–40% of a GPU’s power, and data center power consumption is starting to significantly limit the growth of AI capacity. CPO is a solution to this, and hyperscalers have no alternative if they have to choose between CPO-GPU or stagnation of growth. ROI calculations can change rapidly, and decisions are being brought forward. In this situation, optical components quickly become a bottleneck for the rapid growth of AI computing capacity. Nokia has a clear competitive advantage compared to other optical component suppliers (Lumentum, Coherent) because Nokia can supply a complete optical engine (a hybrid InP + SiPh entity that generates, modulates, and routes light in a CPO environment). Instead, Nokia would probably not replace Broadcom in the CPO’s electrical system-level layer (SerDes, I/O logic). The transition to CPO-GPUs apparently signifies a change in manufacturing architecture and value chain involving multiple suppliers, but the supply chain is most difficult to replace precisely concerning the optical engine. If CPO adoption grows faster than expected, the focus of value shifts from components to integration, and this is where Nokia’s expertise is highlighted, alongside its own InP-PIC production.

Nokia

Nokia's Q2 result was again strong, and the company's strategy has progressed with solid steps in the right direction throughout H1.

<p>Nokia's Q2 result was again strong, and the company's strategy has progressed with solid steps in the right direction throughout H1. In particular, the profitability improvement in Mobile Networks has progressed rapidly despite the challenges in the operating environment, which shows that Nokia's significant investments to improve the unit's competitiveness are delivering the right results. Nokia's share valuation still looks moderate and, in our view, offers a good expected return for the coming years if the company's strategy continues on its current trajectory.</p> 

	2021	22e	23e
Revenue	22,202.0	24,595.4	25,038.5
growth-%	1.6 %	10.8 %	1.8 %
EBIT (adj.)	2,775.0	3,033.5	3,249.0
EBIT-% (adj.)	12.5 %	12.3 %	13.0 %
EPS (adj.)	0.37	0.40	0.43
Dividend	0.08	0.12	0.18
Dividend %	1.4 %	2.3 %	3.4 %
P/E (adj.)	15.3	13.2	12.4
EV/EBITDA	8.4	7.2	6.1

Nokia: Firmly forward

Key Estimate Figures2022-07-22

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