contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


nokia-market-situation-forces-defensive-positions

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Atte Riikola

Nokia is a global telecommunications company. The company offers solutions in IP, broadband, digital health, and cloud-based systems. The customers are found in a broad base of markets and consist of large corporate customers, authorities, and private consumers. The business is established on a global level in all regions. Nokia was founded in 1865 and the head office is located in Esbo, Finland.

Similar situation to Ciena a year ago – gradually the market began to dare to price in a better future; whether it was pure growth or M&A; and the Pain Trade develops and propels the share price to new levels ; now it might be Nokia’s turn

You can really notice it from there too, surprisingly large volumes for Friday and even more significant Calls for March 20th at $8-9. I think today specifically, about 20k has come in for Friday around the $8 mark; are the calls and share purchases feeding a bit of a gamma squeeze? https://maximum-pain.com/options/NOK

RCR Wireless News – 3 Mar 26              Verizon rejigs private 5G team; Nokia nears private 5G sale?    Jennifer Artley, in charge of private 5G at Verizon Business has left. The news compounds unease in the market. Verizon remains focused, it says; interest in Nokia is considerable.

Nokia won’t really be able to differentiate itself or shine with radios – even through the Nvidia partnership. Data processing happens in the baseband – that’s going to be the big thing now. Let’s see how things go in that regard. I think I saw that AMD is trying to pry Ericsson’s door open a bit, or perhaps vice versa.

AI keeps harping on at me that Nokia’s radios cannot be 6G ready before the standards are known, otherwise they would have to play a guessing game with the HW. You would think that at least the frequency band being used would need to be known, as it affects more than just the antenna choice, but that’s not the only question mark. Hopefully it’s wrong! But it’s really great if that is already “the real deal” now. I imagined it would only come to market once the NVIDIA collaboration was further along, but I had missed this until I checked: Nokia expands network portfolio for premium performance in the AI-RAN era #MWC26 It’s good that the AI-ready radio was pushed out already at this stage of the 5G upgrade cycle, if it could be upgraded even to an early stage of 6G. Quite a barrage of good news on Sun and Mon. This might be even more significant than what the TIM Brazil deal might be, as they likely bought these specific radios for the 5G upgrade cycle. I’ve been quite hyped for that radio, as it could be a great opportunity to snatch market share from Ericsson during the upgrade cycle in the 6G transition phase. The TIM Brazil deal showed that the upgrade cycle is now here and this was hopefully just the first win.  And yeah, I also believe that at first, NVIDIA chips will be used mainly in private networks and will be brought to regular mobile users only sometime in the future.

I don’t think that’s the case. Nokia’s new radios are already 6G ready. The recently introduced new radio unit included the latest Reefshark SoC, so it is in a way a normal continuation of the previous ones. Where the changes are happening now, and where changes are expected through the Nvidia partnership, is the baseband. Better features will certainly come (and have already come) to radios with AI; for example, beamforming is changing and evolving.

This has received a bit less attention. I wonder if these are Nokia’s first 5G multipurpose radios?  ”…enabling TIM Brasil to deploy future AI-driven Radio Access Network (RAN) capabilities” “Nokia’s solutions will also prepare TIM Brasil’s network for future advancements, including 5G Advanced, 6G, and advanced AI-driven services” Isn’t that precisely the point of those upcoming 5G radios, that they should be capable of everything highlighted in bold? I might be completely wrong and the article is talking about something else entirely. It would be huge news if they were sold before they are even manufactured.  In any case, some market share has likely been captured from either Huawei or Ericsson, and that might have also provided a bit of a boost. However, these new modernization areas cover over 20 million people based on the six cities mentioned in the article, and the article spoke of 14 states:  ”the company will expand the modernization of its network nationwide, including a further 14 states”  And: “Nokia today announced the expansion of its partnership with TIM Brasil to modernize the company’s 5G network across key regions, covering approximately 42% of the country’s population”  This would be talking about 5G modernization for 90 million people. Brazil has 26 states and the article talks about 14 states, so 90 million people would make sense. Could this alone have moved the share price even more than the well-progressing Nvidia interface or Nvidia’s investments in optics competitors?  Too bad prices aren’t mentioned, but if it’s 5G coverage for 90 million people, the price would presumably be over a billion, even if Nokia only managed to grab half of the pie. Although TIM Brasil only has 57 million customers.

Nokia

Nokia's market situation has continued to deteriorate, and the company will have to make significant cost savings in the coming years to defend its profitability. With a declining earnings trend, it is difficult to see any material upside to the share's low valuation multiples and future restructuring costs will erode free cash flow in the coming years.

<p>Nokia's market situation has continued to deteriorate, and the company will have to make significant cost savings in the coming years to defend its profitability. With a declining earnings trend, it is difficult to see any material upside to the share's low valuation multiples and future restructuring costs will erode free cash flow in the coming years. The company should still be able to generate a reasonably good cash flow in the coming years, which will be returned to shareholders. However, relying on this alone does not provide a sufficiently attractive expected return. </p> 

	2022	23e	24e
Revenue	24,911.0	23,214.5	22,403.5
growth-%	12.2 %	-6.8 %	-3.5 %
EBIT (adj.)	3,109.0	2,723.8	2,522.7
EBIT-% (adj.)	12.5 %	11.7 %	11.3 %
EPS (adj.)	0.44	0.35	0.33
Dividend	0.12	0.16	0.18
Dividend %	2.8 %	2.4 %	2.7 %
P/E (adj.)	9.9	19.3	20.3
EV/EBITDA	6.2	10.7	12.6

Nokia: Market situation forces to defensive positions

Key Estimate Figures2023-10-19

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