contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


nokia-sluggish-earnings-growth-outlook-limits-upside

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Atte Riikola

Nokia is a global telecommunications company. The company offers solutions in IP, broadband, digital health, and cloud-based systems. The customers are found in a broad base of markets and consist of large corporate customers, authorities, and private consumers. The business is established on a global level in all regions. Nokia was founded in 1865 and the head office is located in Esbo, Finland.

I personally still believe that data centers will be built now and in the future. The kind of complex setup NVIDIA has built on the enterprise side doesn’t really affect Nokia that much yet, but I bet this is also a quid pro quo deal where NVIDIA brings Nokia into data centers in exchange for getting their GPUs into radios—so a bit of an “incestuous” business there too. Nokia is a supplier, however, so the losses won’t hit until people stop building and repairing data centers, and I don’t see that happening anytime soon. New players might enter the market, like Nokia now, and then of course valuation multiples will be reset. Data centers are here to stay, though, and it’s good to be involved in them. It doesn’t matter to me even if the valuation multiple goes back to crawling if the AI bubble bursts, because it will rise from there along with increased earnings and margins. The losers will be those who can’t find a return on the capital they’ve invested in their fancy data centers. SaaS, centralized computing, etc., are coming, however. I’m willing to pay €5/month if it makes my €100 handset work like a €1000 device. It remains to be seen whether NVIDIA’s GPU in a radio is a good or bad thing—meaning, whether participating in this “incestuous” setup brings a plus on the data center side but a beating in mobile. I’m quite sure they’ve thought of some applications for it that make it attractive to customers. I don’t know if the idea is to push it mainly to the private side (incl. military) and leave other options for operators.

Aren’t AI projects multi-year, so even if stock prices take a hit, the projects won’t just come to a grinding halt? On the other hand, demand for AI will certainly continue to grow in the future; it’s another matter what the business models of various players will look like as competition intensifies.

Cisco shouldn’t be forgotten. Cisco also has a unit that manufactures coherent optics. These four are basically competing for that slice of coherent optical interfaces. I’m sure a Chinese copycat will soon emerge there as well to drive pricing. Another significant expansion for Nokia is Ethernet-based rack switches. There, the toughest competitors are Arista and Cisco. Nokia now seems to be taking market share from others, and the competition is intensifying. Based on this information alone, I have finally ventured to load up on Nokia in my portfolio after nearly ten years. There will be growth this year. Unfortunately, I predict a total collapse of the entire AI sector for next year. This “big boys’ game,” where investments flow from one to another and the same money circulates within the circle, cannot continue for much longer. Money would need to flow into the circle from the outside, and that doesn’t look very promising.

I’m certain. I know the product. But as I said, NVIDIA has so many switch projects underway that there’s definitely room for Nokia too. At this stage, however, Nokia is only involved in the pluggables. The rack is full of them, so no worries. A billion is on the way.

Nokia completed the acquisition of Infinera almost exactly a year ago, and it seems to have been a very successful one, and perfectly timed at that. When it comes to corporate acquisitions, however, things haven’t always been so successful; some have been incredibly expensive (e.g., Navteq), and others completely pointless (e.g., Withings). Furthermore, company integrations haven’t always been entirely smooth; it was claimed that they had certainly learned from NSN, yet it still took ages to integrate ALU into Nokia. A miserably long time, and costly.. In terms of price, the Infinera acquisition looks good. In terms of timing, the acquisition also seems very good. But how about the integration—how is it progressing now, one year after the acquisition? What do the experts on this forum say?

Nokia’s advantage over Ciena is its vertical integration. Ciena is, for instance, heavily dependent on InP lasers purchased from Lumentum. Additionally, Nokia has a ready product for inside the data center, namely the ICE-D. Ciena has been strong in pluggable products, but I’m not sure how ready they are for the inside of data centers. They don’t have component-level manufacturing like Nokia does. Nokia, on the other hand, has repeatedly emphasized their specialization at this level, with PIC (Photonic Integrated Circuit) expertise being essential. I suspect that in future CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) development, Lumentum will be involved regarding InP lasers, at least in the initial phase. But Nokia could be in a strong position regarding PIC engines, meaning this ready ICE-D product. The market doesn’t seem to anticipate this at all right now, IF this is indeed the case. But then what is Ciena’s role in this; can they get involved at the component level at all, as internal optical development in data centers is, in my view, heading in that direction? By the way, I’m under the impression that Nokia’s FP5/FP6 is not suitable for the inside of data centers, at least currently. They are silicon-based (Silicon Photonics), and they don’t withstand heat as well as InP. So Nokia’s current pluggables development comes mainly through Infinera as InP-based—namely ICE-X.

I think the same, but it requires flawless execution. Below is a draft of a post that I had translated from English. Ciena vs. Nokia – Repricing of AI Infrastructure Ciena (CIEN) has risen from around $90 (August 2025) to over $335 (Feb 20, 2026) – representing approximately +270% in six months. The market has effectively repriced Ciena as a pure-play winner in AI optical infrastructure. It tells us one thing: the AI super-cycle isn’t just about GPUs – it’s about optical transport capacity and energy-efficient data movement. What sets Nokia apart? Ciena is a specialized optical company. Nokia’s Network Infrastructure (NI), on the other hand, is optics + IP routing + fixed networks. In 2026, the competition will shift from the question of “who was first in 1.6T” to “who can deliver the most efficient comprehensive solution at scale”. 1) Speed Parity Nokia lagged behind Ciena in 800G shipments. Now, Nokia’s PSE-6s engine brings the company into the same 1.6T class. 800G transport over 2,000 km has been demonstrated – meaning it’s no longer just a laboratory feat, but actual long-haul traffic between AI data centers. 2) Integrated Stack Nokia also designs its own routing chips (FP5/FP6). When optics and routing are designed together (“coherent routing”), the goal is significantly better power-per-bit than with standalone solutions. Energy is currently the true bottleneck for AI data centers. 3) Industrial Leverage – San Jose Fab Nokia is the only Western optical player with its own InP (Indium Phosphide) chip fab in the United States.  A California state document describes a project where PIC (Photonic Integrated Circuit) capacity is being increased tenfold. This has an impact on supply security and Nokia’s cost structure. The transition from 3-inch wafers to 6-inch is designed to improve production volumes per run and aims for a significant cost-per-bit improvement, provided yields are successful. In other words, once production is ramped up, the cost structure of optical networks will lighten significantly, which will have a margin-boosting effect.  Valuation Perspective Ciena’s market capitalization (~$45–47 billion) has risen to a level that approaches or exceeds the entire Nokia Group (~$42 billion). This means the market is effectively valuing a specialized optical player higher than Nokia’s entire NI + patent portfolio + mobile networks combined. If the AI build-out is a multi-year cycle and if NI can demonstrate:  recurring hyperscaler demand margin expansion towards the 13–17% target range the appeal of IP routing alongside optics  the market could very well conclude that the current valuation gap is not structurally sustainable. We may have already begun to “hear” the prelude to a valuation correction recently. So, it’s not a question of whether Nokia is “fully priced” right now – but whether the repricing of AI transport infrastructure is only just beginning for Nokia as well.

Nokia

Nokia's market does not seem to offer any substantial leverage for net sales growth in the coming years, which also makes profitability improvement challenging. In our view, the lack of earnings growth also limits the upside potential of the stock's low valuation multiples. Still, we expect the improved earnings performance of recent years to hold up reasonably well and, with improving cash flow in the coming years, Nokia's profit distribution should be abundant.


<p>Nokia's market does not seem to offer any substantial leverage for net sales growth in the coming years, which also makes profitability improvement challenging. In our view, the lack of earnings growth also limits the upside potential of the stock's low valuation multiples. Still, we expect the improved earnings performance of recent years to hold up reasonably well and, with improving cash flow in the coming years, Nokia's profit distribution should be abundant.</p> 

	2022	23e	24e
Revenue	24,911.0	23,877.4	24,034.1
growth-%	12.2 %	-4.1 %	0.7 %
EBIT (adj.)	3,109.0	2,784.7	2,743.0
EBIT-% (adj.)	12.5 %	11.7 %	11.4 %
EPS (adj.)	0.44	0.36	0.36
Dividend	0.12	0.18	0.20
Dividend %	2.8 %	2.8 %	3.1 %
P/E (adj.)	9.9	18.0	17.7
EV/EBITDA	6.2	9.6	9.6

Nokia: Sluggish earnings growth outlook limits upside

Key Estimate Figures2023-07-20

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