contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


nokia-turnaround-mobile-networks-will-take-time

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Atte Riikola

Nokia is a global telecommunications company. The company offers solutions in IP, broadband, digital health, and cloud-based systems. The customers are found in a broad base of markets and consist of large corporate customers, authorities, and private consumers. The business is established on a global level in all regions. Nokia was founded in 1865 and the head office is located in Esbo, Finland.

I’m posting the rest of the article’s justifications here for visibility without the need to click: Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Nokia to €8.50 from €6.50 with an Overweight rating, saying rising demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure is strengthening the company’s growth outlook. The brokerage said the new target reflects what had previously been its bull-case scenario, as spending on cloud and AI data center networks accelerates. Morgan Stanley said recent results from optical networking peer Ciena reinforce expectations that demand tied to data center connectivity is rising sharply. Ciena reported strong growth in cloud-related revenue, which the brokerage said supports the view that Nokia’s own revenue outlook for its Optical and IP division may prove conservative. Nokia has guided for revenue growth of 10% to 12% in the segment, but Morgan Stanley forecasts about 13% growth in 2026. It expects optical networking revenue to rise more than 20%, driven by demand from hyperscale data center operators. While AI and cloud-related business accounts for only about 6% of Nokia’s total revenue, the brokerage said it is growing rapidly and helping the company shift away from slower spending by telecommunications operators. Morgan Stanley said investors should watch several potential catalysts in the near term, including announcements at the Optical Fiber Communication Conference scheduled for March 15 to 19. The firm said the event could provide updates on Nokia’s optical networking strategy and potential partnerships with hyperscale cloud companies.

NVIDIA’s Rubin is only just being ramped up in production. Mass shipments will begin in late 2026. There are already coherent pluggables there. However, Nokia’s CPO will likely be integrated later, in a different variant, unless Nokia sells the technology to a competitor to be packaged into their platform even sooner. But I don’t believe that, because the entire bus architecture on the switch would need to be redesigned. Currently, the strongest growth in NI is coming from Fixed Networks. Orders from hyperscalers are going through the roof.

Regarding Nokia’s Nscale connections… otherwise, an interesting article regarding the AI data center boom. Some other AI-themed thread might be a better place for this message.                   the Guardian – 14 Mar 26              Invisible datacentres and capricious chips: is UK’s AI bubble about to burst?    Datacentre investment boom is one of the biggest infrastructure gambles of this era, and Britain may be uniquely exposed                             On the other hand, during this year, several companies competing with OpenAI’s Stargate business are bringing their own AI training systems—GPUs, IPUs, or whatever you want to call their processors—into production, at least at the prototype stage, including OpenAI itself. MS, Google, and AWS are also working on their own projects. Supply will explode in 2027, but will anyone catch up to NVIDIA’s lead? – Unlikely. Someone will still take the role of NVIDIA’s challenger, and price competition will be brutal. Others will fall into a void, and there go the tens or hundreds of billions that have been invested—not necessarily in vain, but almost. Nokia is in a good position in this constellation, although infrastructure builders naturally face stiff competition for market share in their own niche. The most exciting part, of course, is what happens to this whole gold rush when heads start to roll, engineers are laid off, and only a few big players remain? And how will the winners monetize their massive investments through their products? I believe investors still have this year to make money before the madness begins. Unless the oil crisis and the situation in the Middle East escalate, and thus the funding taps of AI-funding countries (oil states) are turned off. Trump is playing for high stakes now, with his uncritical support for Israel. And if Iran carries out its threat and strikes Tel Aviv’s Silicon Valley (AWS, NVIDIA, you name it). These are interesting times.

Sorry to hear about the delay in the San Jose permits. Apparently, it’s not surprising: This is a typical bottleneck in Silicon Valley (Santa Clara County), where regulation is exceptionally strict. In an environment like San Jose, the “permit to operate” usually doesn’t fail just because of a building permit; instead, it’s often about environmental, health, and safety (EHS) requirements. InP (Indium Phosphide) semiconductor manufacturing is a significantly more demanding process in the eyes of authorities than a traditional IT office or light hardware assembly. Here are the most likely reasons why the City of San Jose or local authorities (such as the San Jose Fire Department or BAAQMD) might deny permits: 1. Hazardous Materials Management (HMBP) InP manufacturing uses highly toxic and flammable gases, such as phosphine (PH_3) and arsine (AsH_3), as well as chemicals in epitaxy processes (MOCVD). • Reason: The city requires a detailed Hazardous Materials Business Plan (HMBP). • Problem: If gas detection systems, emergency shut-off valves (EFV), or gas cabinet exhaust ducts do not meet strict Californian standards, the permit to start operations will not be granted. 2. Wastewater and Emission Permits (Environmental Permits) San Jose has very strict rules regarding what can be discharged into the sewer. • Reason: InP processes produce waste containing heavy metals. • Problem: The factory must have its own certified water treatment system (AWN - Acid Waste Neutralization). Air emissions (scrubbers) also require a Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) permit, the processing of which can take months. 3. Fire Safety and Occupancy Classification (Occupancy Permit) Semiconductor fabs are often classified in the “H-occupancy” (High Hazard) category. • Reason: If the building was originally designed as a regular warehouse or office, converting it into a fab requires massive structural changes (e.g., sprinkler systems, firewalls). • Problem: If a city inspector notices that the occupancy classification does not match the volume of chemicals handled there, operations cannot begin. 4. Power Grid and Infrastructure Cleanrooms consume a massive amount of electricity and require heavy-duty ventilation. • Reason: The local utility company (PG&E) or the city may restrict usage if the power grid capacity in the area is at its limit. What does this mean for the project? Nokia has surely anticipated standard requirements, but in Silicon Valley, “surprises” are the rule rather than the exception. If it is a permitting issue, it usually means that: 1. Equipment is in place, but it cannot be connected to the grid or gas lines. 2. Payroll costs are running, but PQ validation (those 6–8 weeks) cannot begin. This is a costly delay, as it pushes the product’s Time-to-Market directly forward day by day.

This is also supported by comments from within Nokia on February 24th: hellaSmac: I work at infinera/nokia as a wafer fabrication technician, yeah we’re really busy from a huge order from the big companies around silicon Valley. Me: Great to hear the fab is buzzing. Seems the San Jose 25x capacity facility with 6-inch wafer will be needed asap. How do you see that transition proceeding? As per reports just Feb 18 “Infinera Corporation acquired South San Jose site from Kennedy Wilson Commercial Investment Group for $27 million”. hellaSmac: There’s a delay it supposed to be starting to operate last January but the city didn’t gave us the permit. The new hired engineers they trying to ramp up all the tools so once we got the permit we’re gonna start the qualifications. They say it might take some time to fully operate in san jose. That’s why they hiring new people to the fab because its getting really busy.  Nvidia was not referenced, but there indeed seems to be demand for Nokia’s Sunnyvale optical production. “Qualifications”, which the username is referring to, is according to Gemini: ”Qualification (process qualification) is a critical phase where a new production line is validated before commercial production. Its purpose is to ensure process stability and yield: i.e., that the new 6-inch wafers produce consistent and defect-free chips in accordance with the strict standards of hyperscale customers. The phase typically lasts 3–6 months and includes equipment fine-tuning (tool ramp-up) as well as component stress testing. Before passing this phase, the factory cannot deliver volume products to customers, even if the equipment is already physically in place.”

Would you like to expand on this thought more? When do you estimate that NVIDIA could bring demand for NI? The MI side is already known.

Capacity issues are real, but suppliers are already building new production lines to meet Nokia’s demand. NI’s business looks good right now. Competitors, tremble. Nokia is attacking on multiple fronts now, as hyperscalers are buying everything that can be delivered. NVIDIA’s demand, on the other hand, is more focused on the future.

Nokia

In our view, the modest performance of Mobile Networks in the coming years will create a drag on Nokia's valuation that the performance of the other units cannot offset. Thus, in the absence of an earnings growth driver, we see no hurry to buy the stock, even if Nokia looks cheap in the light of valuation multiples.

<p>In our view, the modest performance of Mobile Networks in the coming years will create a drag on Nokia's valuation that the performance of the other units cannot offset. Thus, in the absence of an earnings growth driver, we see no hurry to buy the stock, even if Nokia looks cheap in the light of valuation multiples.</p> 

	2022	23e	24e
Revenue	24,911.0	23,214.5	22,436.2
growth-%	12.2 %	-6.8 %	-3.4 %
EBIT (adj.)	3,109.0	2,723.8	2,192.4
EBIT-% (adj.)	12.5 %	11.7 %	9.8 %
EPS (adj.)	0.44	0.35	0.29
Dividend	0.12	0.15	0.17
Dividend %	2.8 %	2.1 %	2.4 %
P/E (adj.)	9.9	20.7	25.2
EV/EBITDA	6.2	11.6	15.6

Nokia: Turnaround of Mobile Networks will take time

Key Estimate Figures2023-12-12

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