Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/11/2026 at 7:10 am EEST.

Posti will report its Q2 results on Friday at approximately 8:30 am EEST. We expect positive macroeconomic trends in Finland to be reflected in Posti’s volumes as well, and we forecast earnings to be in line with those of the comparison period. We believe that the company will reiterate this guidance. We find the expected return, supported by earnings growth and the dividend yield, attractive. Therefore, we reiterate the Accumulate recommendation. The target price is increased to EUR 11.0 (was EUR 9.5), driven by estimate changes.

We believe the trend improved during Q2

We forecast Posti's Q2 revenue to have increased by 1% to 361 MEUR (Q2'25: 356 MEUR). In Postal Services, growth in the top line is weighed down not only by the decline in structural letter volumes, but also by the accelerating digital transition of official mail. Although price increases implemented by the company soften the impact of declining volumes on revenue, we still expect sales in the segment to have fallen significantly. In eCommerce and Delivery Services, we expect parcel volumes to have continued to grow strongly, particularly driven by consumer-to-consumer (C2C) trade. Additionally, we estimate that the upturn in the Finnish economy has positively impacted the volumes of traditional B2C parcels, as well as cyclical B2B parcels and freight. In Warehousing and Logistics Services, we estimate that the company has successfully acquired and ramped up new customers in Finland, but the tight competitive situation in Sweden is likely to limit the segment's growth rate.

We expect Posti’s Q2 adjusted EBIT to be 10 MEUR (Q2’25: 10.6 MEUR), which corresponds with a margin of about 3%. Stable earnings development is positively impacted by price increases and operational efficiency improvements in Postal Services, as well as improved efficiency through growth in Warehousing and Logistics Services. For eCommerce and Delivery Services, we still anticipate an earnings decline, though we estimate that the sales mix has continued its slight improvement. We expect the segment's earnings to have continued to be burdened by the rapid growth of lower-margin C2C parcels. The introduction of more scalable self-service shipments and the growth of freight and B2B will, in our view, improve the segment's efficiency more clearly only in H2 and/or in 2027.

Guidance appears more up to date than before

After a somewhat subdued result in Q1, we anticipated a result in line with the lower end of the guidance, but the positive economic momentum has now led us to raise our earnings estimates by around 10%. Posti estimates its revenue to be 1,400-1,500 MEUR (2025: 1,448 MEUR) and adjusted EBIT 63-79 MEUR (2025: 69.3 MEUR) in 2026. We now estimate that Posti's revenue will increase by one percent from the comparison period, with a result of 69 MEUR, close to the midpoint of the guidance. In addition to the figures, key themes on earnings day will include the progress of programs that contribute to earnings improvement in each segment and the general outlook for the logistics sector.

Expected return is attractive

We feel Posti’s valuation multiples for the coming years (2027e P/E 9x and IFRS 16 adj. EV/EBIT 9x) appear moderate for a company that generates a good return on capital (ROCE ~13%) with the earnings growth we estimate. In our view, Posti's considerable discount relative to its key peers supports a moderate valuation. A significant component of the investor's expected return is enabled by Posti's profit-sharing (dividend yield 8-10%/year), which is supported by the liquidation of the company's real estate portfolio. We estimate that the total expected return on the stock exceeds our required return, which means we consider the share's risk/reward ratio attractive. Our sum-of-the-parts and DCF calculations show that the fair value of the share (>EUR 11) is above the current price, which indicates upside potential and supports our positive view. In our opinion, the evidence of effective performance management in Postal Services, the potential for earnings growth offered by other business areas, and the attractive dividend yield all support continuing to ride along with Posti.