contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Atte Riikola

Remedy Entertainment is a game developer. Its operations are primarily focused on the development of action games, with a particular focus on 3D technology. Examples of games that the company has developed include several different versions of Alan Wake, Max Payne, and Control. Remedy also develops its own game engine and tooling technology that powers many of its games. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

This also reminded me of a fourth observation I forgot to write about. They switched to the “coming soon” wording on social media last week, which they hadn’t used before. It would feel like a bit of a premature term if the release were still about 6 months away in the fall? It’s not worth marketing anything this week, as the Crimson Desert release is taking up all the spotlight. From next week onwards, there would be bandwidth again for further marketing/news. And on the other hand, if we don’t hear any news in the coming weeks, the release window will inevitably be narrowed down to a later date.

https://x.com/i/status/2034222464075518335 Resonant’s marketing continues with the following steps. Tomorrow, March 19th, the May (?) issue of Edge Magazine will be released. AW2 was also the main theme in the same magazine in August 2023 when the October issue came out. (10th August 2023 EDGE's New October 2023 Edition Features Alan Wake 2 Cover [UPDATED] ~ The Sudden Stop) There are again indications here that the game might possibly be released in June. Discussion about the upcoming issue on Resetera: ResetEra EDGE #422 May 2026: Control Resonant cover story and reviews of Resident Evil... This month's cover story is the sequel to Remedy's 2019 hit Control: Control Resonant. This issue's out in shops - digitally and physically - on the 19th March. KNOWLEDGE Love of the game: Exploring the fan-ruled world of unofficial sequels and...

store.steampowered.com – 17 Mar 26              FBC: Firebreak - Open House Major Update Now Available - Steam News    Open House adds new Control-inspired arenas, Friend’s Pass, gameplay improvements, and a price drop. Last major update—FBC: Firebreak stays online and playable.                             Last major update for Firebreak

A few scattered observations following up on the Discord tease from Kasurinen picked up by Hasty.  Observation 1 Nvidia has apparently been splashing cash to market Path Tracing, DLSS 4.5, and Mega Geometry, among others, with Control: Resonant and 007: First Light as their spearheads. The videos are approaching three million views in just a couple of days.   Observation 2: The next updated version of Sony’s own PSSR upscaler is coming to both Control: Ultimate Edition and Alan Wake 2 (AMD hardware, Sony software).   Observation 3: The first concrete example I’ve seen of community building/marketing for Resonant in China.  You can read more about the massive importance of China and markets outside the stagnating EU/US for the growth of the gaming industry and PC market here: Pelialan päivän polttavat, uutiset ja yhtiöt - #1338 käyttäjältä Akee If Resonant reaches a significant China/Asia/South America audience at launch, this could be a major hype and marketing factor in today’s “Live or die by the CCU” internet discussions. This is regardless of the fact that local publishing terms or prices might not be comparable to the traditional Western market.

Kasurinen is promising over on Discord that we will hear more about the game again soon.

https://x.com/i/status/2031761604967026710  As I recall, they commented on Twitter earlier that they had been involved in organizing a hands-off preview held for the press. Now there are also clear hints that something is coming, and as Hasty mentioned, FGS is on Thursday. Let’s hope we finally get that release date now.

Great insights from @Hasty. I was planning to write about the same thing. Good to see that the Nvidia partnership is flourishing. Speculating optimistically, hopefully the accelerating marketing activity (three videos in six days) anticipates a preorder/reveal date trailer soon?  4.3. Hands-off Previews e.g., IGN 6.3. Beyond the Oldest House: Development Diary - video 10.3. Nvidia Geforce/Path Tracing Trailer  And those marketing efforts don’t seem entirely fruitless, as Steam wishlists (Gamalytic) jumped from 630k to 670k in a few days, while Steam wishlist rankings are improving at a steady pace. Currently 55th (cf. 68th mentioned in Atte’s report 1 month ago). If current pricing is reflected against Atte’s scenario analysis, then if I interpret it correctly, at the current price, roughly 1.3–1.4M copies are expected from Resonant’s 2026 (and all future AAA game releases) sales during the first ~6 months. In other words, the expectation is that all future AAA games (excl. MPR) will sell at roughly the same pace or slightly slower than Alan Wake 2. When factoring in storefront limitations (EGS, lack of physical copies), significantly weaker sales success is expected for future games than for Alan Wake 2. In the graph below, Remedy’s announced sales milestones are shown with solid lines, and Atte’s forecasts with dashed lines.   Hopefully, we’ll get updated sales milestones in the annual report; data for everything except Control is starting to be over a year old. On the other hand, because Control Resonant is a very binary risk and a roll of the dice for the entire company’s future, I think it is also very justified to factor a risk discount into the valuation, even if one believes in moderate success for Resonant in the base case. In the early stages of the investment case in 2017–2018, I recall @Mikael_Rautanen describing the company’s risk-reward ratio as asymmetric in his analyses, even though the company was releasing a completely new IP in a weak position relative to the publisher. The analysis was correct, and the asymmetric return potential was realized when the valuation nearly decupled as a result of Control and the gaming industry bubble. We all know which direction the share price has taken since then. Today, the company owns the IPs and publishing rights for its two game series, and at the same time, the pricing has been pushed to 5-year lows. EV today ~€165M. Even though gaming industry valuations have fallen, for example, last year Krafton bought Eleventh Hour Games, which relied on a single game, Last Epoch, and generated about $42M USD in revenue in 2024. Granted, Last Epoch was a decent release selling a couple of million copies, and the M&A negotiation position is much better compared to if, for example, Control Resonant were to flop. In principle, however, it is hard to see Remedy being sold for less than EHG’s M&A prices. At prices below €80–90M, I believe it is more profitable for the company to continue its co-publishing activities focused on outsourcing or low self-financing shares for its games than to sell the studio. In that case, the valuation could, of course, justifiably drop deep into the single digits. The company’s position in the value chain is the best it has ever been, and the releases of Control Resonant (and Max Payne) are closer than ever. Resonant’s wishlists and the visibility of trailers/previews are likely the best the company has ever had. I don’t know if it’s too early for the more optimistic investors to start talking about an asymmetric risk-reward ratio again? I don’t dare declare this myself yet, but if the valuation continues to decline and preorder data and further wishlist developments are encouraging, I might dare to stand behind such a term again myself.

Remedy Entertainment

The investor sentiment around Remedy has recently soured, where we believe the key factors are the write-down of Vanguard’s development expenditure and the postponement of the financial statements based on publishing contract negotiations. In addition, uncertainty about Alan Wake 2’s commercial success causes uncertainty around the stock.

The investor sentiment around Remedy has recently soured, where we believe the key factors are the write-down of Vanguard’s development expenditure and the postponement of the financial statements based on publishing contract negotiations. In addition, uncertainty about Alan Wake 2’s commercial success causes uncertainty around the stock. We believe that the content of the publishing contract and the sales figures of AW2 will be clarified in connection with the financial statements (3/20) at the latest, and with the decreased valuation we feel Remedy's long-term potential looks interesting again.

	2022	23e	24e
Revenue	43.6	33.9	67.2
growth-%	-2.5 %	-22.2 %	98.3 %
EBIT (adj.)	-0.6	-28.7	9.9
EBIT-% (adj.)	-1.3 %	-84.6 %	14.8 %
EPS (adj.)	-0.13	-1.71	0.59
Dividend	0.10	0.10	0.10
Dividend %	0.5 %	0.8 %	0.8 %
P/E (adj.)	neg.	neg.	20.7
EV/EBITDA	126.5	neg.	9.0

Remedy: Back in the game

Key Estimate Figures2024-02-12

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