contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Atte Riikola

Remedy Entertainment is a game developer. Its operations are primarily focused on the development of action games, with a particular focus on 3D technology. Examples of games that the company has developed include several different versions of Alan Wake, Max Payne, and Control. Remedy also develops its own game engine and tooling technology that powers many of its games. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

Good analysis @Akee   What do you estimate the Predicted month 1 sales to be if we were in the TOP 10 wishlist at launch?

Yep. In early spring, there are usually only Microsoft’s/Sony’s own online events. It’s important to be featured in these, preferably with Sony, whose consumers might even buy games. At Summer Games Fest in June, perhaps a Gameplay/preorder or launch trailer, depending on when it launches. I personally expect preorders to start at SGF on 6/26, then a launch trailer at Gamescom on 8/26, leading to a release around 9/26. Remedy has historically benefited from or utilized the recency bias with late-year releases (Control, AW2) just before the GOTY season.

It hasn’t been widely noted that a marketing collaboration for Control Resonant has apparently been established with Sony. It’s not a given for a game that its trailer is shared on PlayStation’s official YouTube channels. This bodes well for its visibility in Sony’s State of Play presentations next year. I’ve held back my own comments on the game a bit, because, like Ake, Remedy is overweight in my portfolio, and I’m somewhat prone to optimism because of it. However, I’m not a megafan of Remedy games; I’ve approached several previous releases with significant reservations about whether the game was meant for me. Typically, when it comes to action games, I lean towards products from the land of the rising sun. Control Resonant, however, is now the first Remedy game whose trailer genuinely made me look forward to the studio’s game, because it has a bit of a Nier vibe (partly thanks to the Bulgarian (?) folk music playing in the trailer) and it’s almost as if they’ve borrowed sugar from neighboring studio Housemarque. Suda51-esque floating heads are a plus. This clip was what sold the game to me:  If Remedy tackles one of the biggest problems in its games, the variety of enemy types (enemy variety), and the game’s action gets rolling, then it will turn out well. Very little of the actual game has been seen yet, and the gameplay footage has so far still been fighting one enemy at a time.

In other news, Resonant’s wishlist estimate updated to Gamalytic Half a million wishlists surpassed on Steam. Plus consoles on top of that.  Currently ranks 84th in Steam wishlists (SteamDB). Roughly a million would put it in the TOP 20 and 1.3-1.5M in the TOP 10. I stick to my previous estimate that there are good chances for this to be a TOP 10 wishlisted game by launch.

Here are the updated forecasts. While working on Excel, I noticed that the depreciations for the Control rights on the balance sheet were still assumed with the previous 2027 release schedule, so I had to fine-tune the forecasts for these as well. These relate to when Remedy bought back the publishing rights for Control from 505 Games. Of course, there’s no exact visibility into those depreciation schedules, so the assumptions are still partly incorrect

In Remedy’s case, EBIT and EPS figures are quite unhelpful in the coming years, as amortizations of capitalized development costs weigh them down. Amortizations are made very front-loaded in relation to the sales of their own game releases, so a large part has already been amortized in the first year, and almost all capitalized expenses within, say, 3 years. Partially, those capitalizations of development costs also supported Remedy’s results at one point in 2021-2022. And Remedy’s business model has also changed over the years, so one cannot really find any indication from the historical figures of how the figures will develop in the future. It can be stated that if Control Resonant and other upcoming self-published games sell well, Remedy’s cash register will ring on a completely different scale than what has happened in history.

Akee brought up an interesting point. I dug through some old figures from the peak years of the hype. Indeed, looking at these numbers, I’m a bit surprised that Remedy isn’t really achieving better results in 26-27 with quite good sales assumptions. What is the reason for falling so clearly behind the 2020-2021 figures?

Remedy Entertainment

After a flurry of news over the past few months, the Q4 report offered little of substance. The outlook for improvement was also of limited informative value, as the decision to choose a publishing partner or to self-publish Condor and Control 2 will have a material impact on Remedy's near-term figures.

<p>After a flurry of news over the past few months, the Q4 report offered little of substance. The outlook for improvement was also of limited informative value, as the decision to choose a publishing partner or to self-publish Condor and Control 2 will have a material impact on Remedy's near-term figures. This is an important long-term strategic decision that will shape the company's direction for the next decade. Given the potential of the Control franchise, we believe that the company will work towards self-publishing both or one of the projects, which will also require additional funding. Remedy's long-term potential is very attractive and at the current valuation we see the risk/reward ratio as a reason to stay long with the stock.</p> 

	2023	24e	25e
Revenue	33.9	50.4	59.5
growth-%	-22.2 %	48.6 %	18.0 %
EBIT (adj.)	-28.6	-12.6	-4.3
EBIT-% (adj.)	-84.4 %	-25.0 %	-7.2 %
EPS (adj.)	-1.68	-0.72	-0.25
Dividend	0.00	0.00	0.00
Dividend %
P/E (adj.)	neg.	neg.	neg.
EV/EBITDA	neg.	neg.	164.1

Remedy: Major strategic decision ahead

Key Estimate Figures2024-03-20

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