Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/4/2026 at 7:00 am EET.

We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation for Remedy but revise our target price to EUR 21.0 (was EUR 23.0). Our Q3 expectations for Control Resonant were too high, and the game’s initial sales pace looks somewhat more moderate than we previously expected, even though, in the bigger picture, sales have gotten off to a good start. We lower our sales forecasts for the game for the coming years, which cuts our earnings forecasts particularly for this year and next. The successful launch of Resonant nevertheless reduces Remedy’s short-term risks and, in our view, enables it to self-publish future projects. Given this potential, we believe the share’s valuation remains attractive. 

Q3 game sales below our expectations

Remedy’s Q3 revenue grew by 226% to 39.6 MEUR but fell short of our 48.0 MEUR estimate. Game sales and royalties were 35.3 MEUR (our estimate: 43.0 MEUR), and by our rough estimate, Control Resonant sold ~0.65 million copies in Q3. EBITDA rose to 6.8 MEUR, short of our 10.4 MEUR estimate, mainly due to the lower revenue. Owing to lower-than-expected depreciation and amortization, however, EBIT (0.6 MEUR) was roughly in line with our expectations. As expected, operating cash flow was sluggish (-0.1 MEUR), as Resonant’s sales proceeds will only show up in cash flow in Q4.

A good basis for Control Resonant’s long sales tail

Control Resonant passed one million copies sold on October 15, about three weeks after release, a figure that includes physical copies based on shipments to retailers. According to the company, nearly half of the players are new to Control and Remedy. The game still has 2.4 million wishlists, excluding players who have already bought it. We view this as a good indicator of a long sales tail, although it remains unclear at what price point a significant share of these players will convert into buyers. The US has been by far the game’s largest market, while Europe fell somewhat short of the company’s expectations.

Forecasts for the coming years lowered

We lower our 2026 sales forecast for Control Resonant to 1.5 million copies (was 1.9 million) and our 2027 forecast to 2.1 million copies (was 2.2 million). We also lower our average selling price for Q4 digital sales and now factor in that Remedy books only the royalty as revenue for physical copies. Given the slower sales pace, we estimate that Annapurna’s share of the production budget will not be recouped until early 2027, after which Remedy’s share of the game’s proceeds will increase. As expected, Remedy reiterated its guidance for revenue and EBITDA growth, and based on our forecasts (2026e: revenue 99.7 MEUR, EBITDA 15.9 MEUR), the guidance will be clearly exceeded. As for the company’s 2027 targets, our forecasts show the goal of doubling revenue from the 2024 level being met, but the EBITDA margin (2027e: 21%) falling short of the 30% target.

Successful release of Control Resonant reduced risks, although the hit-game option did not materialize

In our view, the successful launch of Control Resonant has reduced Remedy’s risks, as the scenario of a failed launch is now off the table. The game’s cash flows, combined with a strong balance sheet, will enable the company to finance and self-publish subsequent projects. On the other hand, the hit-game option did not materialize, and some of the short-term surprise momentum has gone out of the share. On our forecasts for the coming years, the valuation (EV/EBITDA 2027e–2028e: 9.5x and 6.5x) remains moderate, and the value of the base case in our DCF model (EUR 22.7) gives an indication of the long-term potential. Over the next 12 months, we expect the share to be supported by continued Resonant sales and the likely release of Max Payne Remake. We therefore remain positive on the share at the current valuation.