contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Nibe Industrier operates in the manufacturing industry and focuses on the development, manufacture and distribution of heat pumps and energy solutions. The company's products are aimed at private individuals and companies looking for energy-efficient solutions. The business is global with a main presence in Europe. Nibe Industrier was founded in 1989 and has its headquarters in Markaryd, Sweden.

Lucas has prepared a Q3 company report.  While NIBE’s Q3 report fell slightly short of our expectations, we believe the overall picture remains unchanged: a gradual recovery in sales volumes and margins continues in the right direction. Therefore, we consider the market reaction, which drove the share price down by 13%, to be somewhat exaggerated and see it as creating an even more attractive buying opportunity for the company’s appealing long-term investment story. As a result, we reiterate our Add recommendation but slightly lower our target price to SEK 38.0 per share (previously SEK 40.0), mainly due to lower forecasts.                   Inderes              NIBE Q3'25: Elpyminen etenee oikeaan suuntaan - Inderes    Vaikka NIBE:n Q3-raportti jäi jonkin verran odotuksistamme, uskomme kokonaiskuvan pysyvän ennallaan: asteittainen elpyminen myyntivolyymeissa ja katteissa jatkuu oikeaan suuntaan. Siksi pidämme markkinoiden reaktiota, joka ajoi osakekurssin 13 %...

Hello! We are approaching the end of the reporting season, but we still have some exciting reports left – including Nibe. Several of Nibe’s competitors have already presented their Q3 reports, and I thought it might be interesting to compile some reflections on these. Based on competitors’ Q3 reports, a clear common trend emerges: the European heat pump market continues to recover, with Germany particularly highlighted as strong. Carrier (owner of Viessmann, one of the leading heat pump manufacturers in Germany) reported a 15% sales increase for heat pumps in Europe within the residential segment during Q3. In Germany, sales increased by a significant 45%, and the company expects the trend to continue. Italian Ariston, another competitor to Nibe, also reported organic sales growth of just over 4%, primarily driven by strong development in Germany. The German market accounts for approximately 20% of Ariston’s total sales. Given the positive development during the first nine months of the year and the trends the company sees at the beginning of Q4, Ariston chose to raise its full-year forecast to approximately 3% organic growth (from a previous 1–3%). Competitor Daikin describes the market climate for heat pumps in Europe as still challenging but also emphasizes that demand in Germany is strong. This development is in line with the market data we have been following during the year. Underlying heat pump sales in Germany increased by 55% during the first half of 2025. The country also offers financial support for private individuals who install heat pumps, with the aim of reducing gas dependency and accelerating the transition from fossil-fueled heating systems. The subsidies are, of course, an important driving force behind the strong sales development. One can also follow the number of subsidy applications, which functions somewhat as an indicator for future sales. Applications increased by 78% in September and 49% in August, which will likely affect the manufacturing sector with some delay. The German market is also significant for Nibe. We estimate that it accounts for approximately 10–15% of Climate Solutions’ sales, and since Europe as a whole accounts for about 70% of the business area’s turnover, the region is central to Nibe’s development. At a European level, heat pump sales increased by 9% during the first half of 2025, signaling good demand from end consumers. In addition to Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Italy have also driven growth, while the recovery in France and parts of Eastern Europe is slower. We have already received statistics for heat pump sales in Sweden and the Netherlands for Q3, where both countries show stable but somewhat decelerating growth (Sweden: 8%, Netherlands: 6%). In Sweden, construction has slowed down more than the more optimistic forecasts of the first half of the year indicated. At the same time, the temporarily raised ROT deduction (ROT-avdraget) to 50% (from 30%) is expected to stimulate demand during the rest of the year. However, when the deduction returns to 30% at the turn of the year, there is a risk of a slowdown in sales during early 2026. The Dutch market is partly affected by the reduction of subsidies for smaller air-to-water heat pumps at the beginning of the year. This led to an order intake peak during Q4’24, with deliveries during the first months of 2025 – which likely explains the relatively high growth during the first half of the year. This indicates that the increase may have been temporary rather than structural, making it particularly interesting to follow market data in the Netherlands in the coming quarters.

Lucas has prepared a pre-company report on Nibe, which will publish its Q3 results on Friday, November 14.  NIBE’s valuation has continued to moderate, while data from the European heat pump market still shows positive signs of recovery, supporting our forecasts. The medium-term valuation multiples (2026: P/E 21x and EV/EBIT: 17x) are clearly below the company’s long-term medians and appear attractive in our opinion. Therefore, we believe that the company’s interesting long-term investment story can be accessed with a good risk/reward ratio at the current valuation, and we upgrade our recommendation to Add (previously Reduce), but reiterate the target price of SEK 40.0.                   Inderes              NIBE Q3'25 -ennakko: Houkuttelevasti hinnoiteltu elpymisen vahvistuessa -...    NIBE:n arvostus on jatkanut maltillisella tasolla, samalla kun Euroopan lämpöpumppumarkkinan data näyttää edelleen positiivisia merkkejä elpymisestä, mikä tukee ennusteitamme. Keskipitkän aikavälin arvostuskertoimet (2026: P/E 21x ja EV/EBIT: 17x)...

Lucas has given his comments, as NIBE acquired 70 percent of the Italian company Selmo S.r.l.  We believe that the acquisition is in line with the company’s strategy and strengthens the Element business area. However, the transaction is very small relative to NIBE’s size and does not have an immediate significant impact on our forecasts or our view of the company. We will update the acquisition into our forecasts no later than in connection with the company’s Q3 report.                   Inderes              NIBE palasi yritysostopolulle pienellä Element-kaupalla - Inderes    NIBE tiedotti maanantaina ostaneensa 70 % italialaisesta Selmo S.r.l. -yhtiöstä. Uskomme, että yritysosto on linjassa yhtiön strategian kanssa ja vahvistaa Element-liiketoiminta-aluetta. Kauppa on kuitenkin NIBEn kokoluokkaan nähden hyvin pieni, eikä...

A very comprehensive answer, thank you very much! NIBE has just released inverter-controlled ground source heat pumps, so product development continues even in difficult years. Perhaps my biggest criticism of NIBE is directed at their consumer marketing and marketing channels. The company is not visible at trade fairs, their websites could be improved, and their YouTube and other social media channels are used quite weakly, making it difficult for consumers to get information about NIBE’s excellent products. One would think that during challenging times, they would invest in visibility and marketing, but if such an investment has been made, I have at least missed it. I myself acquired a NIBE 1245 ground source heat pump for our detached house almost two years ago as a replacement investment. The difference from a twenty-year-old, so-called underpowered ground source heat pump was downright dramatic and came as a complete surprise to me. In the same context, I noticed that the domestic hot water was even warmer than before, and later also that the pump could be retrofitted with passive cooling. So I am very satisfied with the product and invested in NIBE based on the Peter Lynch principle, relying on my own product knowledge. My investment has not gone particularly well. The issue that bothers me is that since these positive aspects of NIBE’s heat pump came as a surprise to me, it is possible that there are many ignorant consumers like me in the market. For this reason, I wonder if NIBE has succeeded in communicating to consumers what a great product it ultimately is. Is it possible that during the booming corona years, the company lost its ability to communicate with its potential customers?

Hey, that’s a very interesting and broad question! To understand why the company has underperformed, I think it’s important to understand how the market has developed in recent years. I’ll try to walk us through it as concisely as possible. The European heat pump market, which is a very important market for NIBE, has shown very strong and stable growth historically, averaging 10–15% between 2012–2022, driven by increased climate awareness at both government and consumer levels. However, this growth trend reversed in 2023, decreasing by approximately 5%, followed by an even sharper decline in 2024 of over 20%. This downturn is due to several factors, but overall, it was primarily related to a sluggish economy with lower consumer purchasing power, uncertainty regarding future subsidy systems, and falling gas prices, which make heat pumps a less attractive alternative. The most important questions since then have been when we will see a recovery, at what pace, and what the sustainable level of end-consumer demand will be. We have previously communicated and still believe that the expectations for market growth have been unrealistic. The EU has a goal of 60 million installed heat pumps in the Union by 2030 (currently about 26 million), which are very high ambitions considering that these are products that require installation, service, and are currently expensive for consumers to invest in (although subsidies can help to some extent). As a result of the strong growth we have seen in the market historically and these high ambition levels for future growth, manufacturers have adapted to this, which has led to overcapacity in the market, just as you say, but it has also resulted in many competitors entering the market. Over the past year, we have seen interest rates come down and consumer purchasing power starting to return; several manufacturers in the market have initiated cost savings and paused plans to expand capacity. Both market data and NIBE’s reports during H1 signal that the market is beginning to recover, but it is happening gradually and at a slow pace. To summarize an answer to your question, I would say that the company’s performance has largely to do with the strong headwinds we have seen in the market recently. It’s not just NIBE that is struggling, but also competitors such as Carrier, Ariston, Bosch, Daikin, to name a few. It is also clear that NIBE, like many other players in the market, has overestimated market growth. My perception is also that large parts of NIBE’s revenues come from private households, which have had a tough time, compared to the commercial/industrial side. I hope you feel I gave a good answer to your question. Very interesting discussion

Let’s dive straight into the deep end. How on earth can this market leader underperform quarter after quarter? There’s nothing wrong with the products, but not enough is left below the line. Is the fault with NIBE or is there a permanent and persistent overcapacity in the market?

Nibe Industrier

Following the market development since we initiated coverage of NIBE (20.9.), along with the somewhat weaker Q3 report than we expected, we have lowered our estimates and hold a more cautious...

<p>Following the market development since we initiated coverage of NIBE (20.9.), along with the somewhat weaker Q3 report than we expected, we have lowered our estimates and hold a more cautious view when it comes to the short-term outlook. With the current shift to higher interest and the challenges NIBE faces in maintaining historical earnings growth rates, we feel that the share valuation is in the higher end of our acceptable valuation range (2024e: P/E 26x). Thus, we stay on the sidelines waiting for the risk/return ratio to strengthen.</p> 

	2022	23e	24e
Revenue	40,071.0	47,515.3	51,026.1
growth-%	30.0 %	18.6 %	7.4 %
EBIT (adj.)	5,764.0	7,331.9	7,509.6
EBIT-% (adj.)	14.4 %	15.4 %	14.7 %
EPS (adj.)	2.11	2.57	2.61
Dividend	0.65	0.75	0.80
Dividend %	0.7 %	2.0 %	2.2 %
P/E (adj.)	46.0	14.5	14.3
EV/EBITDA	27.1	9.8	8.9

Risks cast a shadow over potential rewards

Key Estimate Figures2023-11-16

Forum discussions