Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/12/2026 at 9:50 pm EEST.

Sampo's Q2 report was very strong overall, and the earnings growth outlook for the coming years remains robust. Changes to our estimates have remained marginal, but confidence in earnings growth forecasts increased further. We revise Sampo's target price to EUR 10.5 (was EUR 10.0) and reiterate our Accumulate recommendation. The stock is starting to look pricey at the current price, but the excellent earnings growth outlook and secure dividend still keep the expected return sufficient.

Strong performance continues

Sampo's Q2 report was operationally an excellent performance once again. The underwriting result improved marginally from a strong comparison period to 418 MEUR, slightly exceeding market expectations. However, the beat is explained by a one-off earnings improvement in the Baltics (28 vs. 17 MEUR), adjusted for which the result was fully in line with market expectations. Combined ratio was again at an excellent level of 82.9%, supported by favorable weather conditions. Profit before taxes was, as expected, very strong at 584 MEUR, with the net financial result supported by strong market development. The result was somewhat below market expectations (629 MEUR), but in line with our own forecasts (568 MEUR). The deviation is explained by the net financial result and mainly by technical accounting items, so it has no practical significance for investors. Operational earnings per share were EUR 0.14 as expected.

Due to a strong start to the year and lower-than-expected claims, Sampo marginally revised its underwriting result guidance for the current year upwards to 1,550–1,625 MEUR (from 1,525–1,625 MEUR). For Topdanmark synergies, the company reiterated its 2028 target of 140 MEUR, but we consider it clear that the level will be revised upwards at the latest in connection with the Q4 report.

Earnings growth picture stays excellent

We have made marginal upward adjustments to our estimates following the Q2 report. We expect Sampo to be able to grow its operational EPS by ~10% on average between 2026 and 2029. The main driver is naturally the underwriting result, which is supported by growth and Topdanmark synergies. The rest of the earnings growth comes from the reduced number of shares due to share repurchases. Overall, Sampo's earnings growth is on a very strong footing: profitability is at an excellent level, Topdanmark synergies are materializing rapidly, and the company is developing with the help of its very strong digital capabilities. As usual, profit distribution will remain generous, and the basic dividend will be supplemented by significant share buybacks annually.

Earnings growth keeps the expected return sufficient

We believe it is justified to price Sampo in line with high-quality Nordic insurance peers (P/E 16-18x). Based on actual earnings, we believe that Sampo's share is fully priced, with no room for multiples to rise (P/E ~18x). Consequently, Sampo's expected return must come entirely from earnings growth and dividends. We forecast an average operational EPS growth of around 10% over the next three years. In addition, investors will receive a growing dividend yield of 4%. All in all, we believe that Sampo's share is correctly priced at its current level, but the attractive earnings growth outlook, combined with steadily growing dividends, offers a sufficient expected return. While the company's earnings outlook for the coming years is undeniably very good, the current valuation sets the bar high and leaves no room for error.