contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


stora-enso-cyclical-risk-haunts-even-though-guidance-increased

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Head of Research

Antti Viljakainen

Stora Enso is a global forest industry group. The group includes the production and development of newsprint and book paper, consumer cardboard, industrial packaging and other wood products. The group operates on a global level with its largest presence in Europe and North America. The company was founded in 1998 by the merger of Finnish Enso and Swedish Stora Kopparbergs Bergslags Aktiebolag. The head office is located in Helsinki.

I suspect that the already observed decrease in timber prices and the predicted future rise in interest rates will have an impact on how this situation still turns out. Should have acted a year or two ago. It will probably happen as usual: the price of wood rises sharply and eventually falls to its long-term average. Good and bad for Stora.

It is not yet known and probably won’t be clear for a while. At the CMD, it was mentioned that both companies are aiming for an investment grade credit rating, which practically does not allow debt allocation to only one of the companies. Of course, in this type of extreme solution, tax factors could also become an obstacle.

What portion of the debts will be transferred to the segregated forest? Are interest rates rising in the coming years? This has great significance.

I agree. Perhaps they always make decisions slowly?

The decision to list the forests is welcome, but the timeline for such a project is terribly long. This has already been planned for half a year, and now an additional year and a half is being allocated, making a total of two years to list existing assets, for which balance sheet values should already be available, which do not need to be sold to anyone (meaning no 12-month sales process), and the top management’s will is already clear – so, as I understand it, a very clear process. How can another 18 months be wasted on this? This is a waste of shareholder value; just when momentum, media coverage, and a boost to the stock price were gained, this certainly undermines faith in the company’s ability to innovate and generate added value for its owners. I would expect management to take responsibility and expedite this matter.

Here are Viljakainen’s comments regarding Stora Enso’s Friday announcement.  Stora Enso announced on Friday that it has completed the strategic review of its Swedish forest assets and intends to proceed with a plan to separate the assets into a new listed company. The news was expected and supports our view of Stora Enso’s stock, which relies on unlocking the hidden value in the company’s balance sheet. The negative aspect of Friday’s news was the timeline, as the demerger is only expected to take place in H1’27.                   Inderes              Stora Enso päätti odotetusti Ruotsin metsien listaamisen edistämisestä - Inderes    Stora Enso tiedotti perjantaina, että se on saanut päätökseen Ruotsin metsäomaisuutensa strategisen arvioinnin ja aikoo edetä suunnitelmassa eriyttää omaisuus uudeksi pörssiyhtiöksi. Uutinen oli odotettu ja tukee näkemystämme Stora Enson osakkeesta,...                             Then there’s also this comment from Antti.  Stora Enso announced on Friday that it is initiating a strategic review concerning its sawmills and building solutions operations in Central Europe. The business under review is significant, with a turnover of approximately EUR 800-900 million. This business is outside Stora Enso’s core in the company’s strategy, which focuses on renewable packaging materials and aims to streamline its structure. Against this background, we believe the initiation of the review was not a surprise.                   Inderes              Stora Enso asetti puolet Wood Products -yksiköstään strategiseen tarkasteluun...    Stora Enso tiedotti perjantaina käynnistävänsä strategisen arvioinnin koskien Keski-Euroopan sahojaan ja rakentamisen ratkaisujen toimintojaan. Arvioinnin kohteena oleva liiketoiminta on merkittävä noin 800-900 MEUR:n liikevaihdolla. Liiketoiminta on...

Let’s clarify a bit: In Sweden, Stora owns 1.2 million hectares of forest. The annual growth per hectare is approximately 5 m3. If we consider the price to be 60€ /m3, we arrive at the conclusion that Stora’s forests / the new company’s forests produce about 6 million cubic meters of wood per year, which is approximately 360,000 million €. The value of the forests has been hinted at 4.8 billion, from which an annual return of about 8% could be obtained. 60€ is not necessarily a long-term sustainable price; it’s perhaps more likely that we will see lower prices in the future. Enso has 800 million shares. This means each share would receive a forest share worth approximately 6 euros. The range in which the correct price will be formed is a market decision. If the price ends up lower, the return rises above 8%, which doesn’t sound too bad in itself. What then remains as Enso’s actual profit? Enso has not been able to generate as good a return on capital as the forests that are now leaving the company. The numbers used are indicative.

Stora Enso

Stora Enso issued a positive earnings revision yesterday for the current year, but the expected revision did not change estimates much. We feel the risk of Stora Enso’s cyclical earnings peak...

<p>Stora Enso issued a positive earnings revision yesterday for the current year, but the expected revision did not change estimates much. We feel the risk of Stora Enso’s cyclical earnings peak approaching is significant, which we believe the market is increasingly nervous about as economic growth slows down and inflation wreaks havoc. Thus, we do not see purchases worth the risk at the moment, even if the company's valuation is not unreasonable. </p> 

	2021	22e	23e
Revenue	10,164.0	11,405.9	10,613.1
growth-%	18.8 %	12.2 %	-7.0 %
EBIT (adj.)	1,528.0	1,893.7	1,351.6
EBIT-% (adj.)	15.0 %	16.6 %	12.7 %
EPS (adj.)	1.56	1.77	1.23
Dividend	0.55	0.65	0.70
Dividend %	3.4 %	6.4 %	6.9 %
P/E (adj.)	10.3	5.7	8.3
EV/EBITDA	6.7	4.4	5.5

Stora Enso: Cyclical risk haunts even though guidance increased

Key Estimate Figures2022-06-13

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