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Telia: Not setting sail just yet
Operationally, Telia's Q4 was slightly softer than expected. Operational guidance was in line with our expectations but left some downward pressure on market expectations for EBITDA. In addition, the cash flow guidance was broad and cash flow will have to fall at the upper end of the guidance for a sustainable dividend payment. We made only minor revisions to our estimates and believe that that expected return will mainly be driven by the dividend (8%). The valuation picture for the stock (2023e P/E 17x and EV/EBIT 16x) still argues for caution, especially given the uncertainty. In addition, there are better risk/return ratios available on the stock market.
Telia Company operates in the telecom sector. The company delivers a range of services within voice, IP and capacity services, mainly through wholly owned international carrier networks. Customers are found among private players and corporate customers. The largest operations are found in the Nordic countries, the Baltics and Europe. The company was formed as a merger of Telia and Sonera. The head office is located in Solna.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures2023-01-26
| 2022 | 23e | 24e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 90,827.3 | 93,084.2 | 95,480.3 |
| growth-% | 2.8 % | 2.5 % | 2.6 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | 11,310.3 | 11,931.4 | 12,575.5 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 12.5 % | 12.8 % | 13.2 % |
| EPS (adj.) | 0.53 | 1.62 | 1.81 |
| Dividend | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.05 |
| Dividend % | 7.5 % | 4.1 % | 4.2 % |
| P/E (adj.) | 50.3 | 30.3 | 27.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 | 9.2 | 9.1 |
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