contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Co. Head of Research

Petri Gostowski

Neste produces transport fuel and renewable fuels. Today, the largest operations and extraction are held in the Nordic market, where the company is active in the entire value chain, from extraction to delivery to port depots. In addition, the opportunity is given for direct sales where customers can pick up fuel at selected stations. The largest market is in the Nordic region, and the company is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

Yes, the other capacity that has not been shut down due to maintenance outages is being run at full capacity, and more will come when the Rotterdam expansion is completed. According to the current schedule, this will be during 2027, but there is always uncertainty associated with these projects, and of course, ramping up new capacity takes time, as seen with the Singapore expansion. So, one could assume that the Rotterdam expansion will reach full speed sometime during 2028. The exact split between contract sales and spot sales is not precisely known. Historically, Neste has stated early in the year that about half or even 2/3 has been under contract sales for the next 12 months, but this figure has indeed varied in recent years. During the year, it naturally also changes according to how much of that contract sales has actually been delivered, so it’s unlikely that the split consistently follows the contract/spot sales exactly on a quarterly or even monthly basis. Now, regarding H2’25, it has been said that due to contract sales and maintenance outages, only small volumes will be available for the spot market, and therefore it is difficult to achieve the benefits of the spot market’s strong margin with significant volumes.

Who can tell how much Neste sells on the spot market and how much with longer-term contracts?

HVO futures have risen back to virtually multi-year highs after a short dip

EU eases ICE phase-out with new 2035 CO2 car target | Latest Market News

argusmedia.com – 16 Dec 25              Viewpoint: European HVO prices unlikely to ease in 2026 | Latest Market News    Northwest European hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) premiums have firmed on the year in 2025, setting the stage for continued strength as the market braces for higher blending targets in 2026.

According to VARA’s consensus, Neste would, for example, sell only 4.564 million tons of renewables next year (2026) and only 5.3 million tons in 2027. However, Neste’s nominal annual capacity for renewables is already 5.5 million tons, and by 2027 it should be as high as 6.8 million tons. So, the estimates for sales volumes are quite cautious compared to the capacity. This means that only 83% of the nominal capacity would be sold in 2026 and only 78% in 2027. Surely maintenance shutdowns don’t reduce it that much? Below is VARA’s current table (from Neste’s website).

So, currently, capacity is being run at full throttle, and more capacity will come sometime late next year or early 2027, is that correct? At what point does Neste start selling future production, what is the typical lead time for these? I assume that a large part is sold through fixed, pre-agreed contracts vs. spot sales.

Neste

On Tuesday, Neste lowered the guidance for Renewable Products' 2024 sales margin reflecting especially the weakness in the market caused by increased supply. We cut both our short- and medium-term forecasts driven by a fall in the sales margin.

<p>On Tuesday, Neste lowered the guidance for Renewable Products&apos; 2024 sales margin reflecting especially the weakness in the market caused by increased supply. We cut both our short- and medium-term forecasts driven by a fall in the sales margin. We feel the valuation of the stock is quite reasonable with clearly more conservative sales margin forecasts. We believe this supports a positive view even though no quick relief is in sight for the difficult market situation.</p>

	2023	24e	25e
Revenue	22,925.9	19,287.2	23,056.0
growth-%	-10.8 %	-15.9 %	19.5 %
EBIT (adj.)	2,591.5	1,002.6	1,578.4
EBIT-% (adj.)	11.3 %	5.2 %	6.8 %
EPS (adj.)	2.88	1.02	1.62
Dividend	1.20	0.60	0.65
Dividend %	3.7 %	3.3 %	3.5 %
P/E (adj.)	11.2	18.0	11.3
EV/EBITDA	10.7	9.2	6.4

The headwind won't ease

Key Estimate Figures2024-05-15

Forum discussions