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The headwind won't ease

NESTEResearch2024-05-16 09:56
Petri GostowskiCo. Head of Research
Discuss
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On Tuesday, Neste lowered the guidance for Renewable Products' 2024 sales margin reflecting especially the weakness in the market caused by increased supply. We cut both our short- and medium-term forecasts driven by a fall in the sales margin. We feel the valuation of the stock is quite reasonable with clearly more conservative sales margin forecasts. We believe this supports a positive view even though no quick relief is in sight for the difficult market situation.

Neste produces transport fuel and renewable fuels. Today, the largest operations and extraction are held in the Nordic market, where the company is active in the entire value chain, from extraction to delivery to port depots. In addition, the opportunity is given for direct sales where customers can pick up fuel at selected stations. The largest market is in the Nordic region, and the company is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

Read more on company page

Key Estimate Figures2024-05-15

202324e25e
Revenue22,925.919,287.223,056.0
growth-%-10.8 %-15.9 %19.5 %
EBIT (adj.)2,591.51,002.61,578.4
EBIT-% (adj.)11.3 %5.2 %6.8 %
EPS (adj.)2.881.021.62
Dividend1.200.600.65
Dividend %3.7 %1.9 %2.1 %
P/E (adj.)11.230.919.4
EV/EBITDA10.714.610.3

Forum discussions

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2892000-co-processing-saf-faces-technical-cost-policy-hurdles The article...
10/25/2026, 7:21 AM
by Sinuhe
10
Does the article say whether diesel (and kerosene) is also coming out of there like before?
10/24/2026, 4:50 PM
by Sinuhe
6
FPRI researcher RALee85 cites a Bloomberg article (paywall) on X regarding the situation of Russian refineries following the Ukrainian attacks...
10/24/2026, 11:58 AM
16
Neste’s most significant European competitor, Eni, released its results today. The Bio segment’s EBITDA rose by 30% from the previous quarter...
10/23/2026, 1:37 PM
by Homeros
50
Pete is kicking off the pre-party in the form of a preview report for Neste’s Q3 results, which will be published next week on Thursday Earnings...
10/21/2026, 9:09 PM
by Sijoittaja-alokas
22
VARA’s consensus target price rose to 37 euros. vara-services.com/neste/
10/20/2026, 7:53 AM
by bottom-ditching
20
Some sort of correction has occurred as the HVO vs. diesel price spread is now narrowing closer to $1,000 per tonne, after hovering around a...
10/19/2026, 11:05 AM
6